TX-Gov: ChismStrat/Blueprint (D): Abbott + 19

[OSR stands with Israel]

It will be glorious to see Beto be destroyed and Texas Democrats set back to Pre Trump level support

[OSR stands with Israel]

Might be an outlier, but this race was never competitive to begin with. After his incredible 2018 senate campaign, Beto made a fool of himself.

Texas really was never as competitive as it seemed like I would argue as keep in mind in 2016 Trump did around 11 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cruz in 2018 overperformed the National House PV by 11 points as well. In 2020 Trump did 10 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cornyn overperformed the National House PV by around 12.5 points .

Given Abbott's personality is more similar to Cornyn than Trump/Cruz a 19 point win would mean around a R+6.5 year but given the fact that Democrats are far more reliant on low propensity votes in Texas than they are nationally a R+5-5.5 year could also produce such a win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Might be an outlier, but this race was never competitive to begin with. After his incredible 2018 senate campaign, Beto made a fool of himself.

Texas really was never as competitive as it seemed like I would argue as keep in mind in 2016 Trump did around 11 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cruz in 2018 overperformed the National House PV by 11 points as well. In 2020 Trump did 10 points better in Texas than he did in the country and Cornyn overperformed the National House PV by around 12.5 points .

Given Abbott's personality is more similar to Cornyn than Trump/Cruz a 19 point win would mean around a R+6.5 year but given the fact that Democrats are far more reliant on low propensity votes in Texas than they are nationally a R+5-5.5 year could also produce such a win.

Stetwide election result from 2018 somewhat beg differ, the other races beyond governor were much closer. It's still a Republican-leaning state for sure, though it has significantly moved towards light-red territory. Biden also performed well compared to previous Democrats in 2020. However, I think it will take another two or three cycles to be really winnable for the Democrats.

Well 2018 was also a +8.5 year for the Dems nationally which is what made it deceptively close and Beto overrated as he relatively did not really overperform Hillary in Texas. In today's day and age I would say relative margin matters more than overall when judging how a state would vote in different elections(except a state like Georgia).

In 2020 Texas voted 10-12.5 more Republican than the nation and given how Texas Democrats are reliant on low propensity voters who usually dont turn out in same party midterms that number could be higher in 2022.