Goddamnit: if a wider war breaks out use this thread for context

[PSOL]

So there’s been a lot of openings for Iran to assert itself as a permanent fixture in Central Asia and the Levant.

Israel is beating the drums of war over the Karish oil fields claimed by Lebanon. Outside of usual posturing, the beginning of oil extraction is a slap on the face to Lebanon as a whole who desperately needs fuel and revenue coming in. Israel, with US financial support, is also strengthening their own missile systems to prevent Hezbollah and Hamas rockets from impacting them much with Iron Beam. They’ve also shared radar technology with the gulf states to prevent pressure from the Houthis. Currently, Iran is in an arms and technology race to counteract such a partnership and ensure they have leverage with their proxies.

In Central Asia, Iran is trying to find an opening with the US out and all the Turkic states afraid of the battle hardened Afghan army. Iran has returned US equipment smuggled into iran back to Afghanistan and has taken advantage of the fear and economic despair. They’ve increased exports to Tajikistan by 500% alone and have built drone factories and other manufacturing plants there.

None of this points to war instigated by Iran or even a wider escalation of the proxy conflict short term, mind you. What it does point out is that Iran is embedding itself to wait out the attrition conflict long term to see the Saudis fall and focus on expanding smuggling routes.

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If the beards all died they could quickly be brought to the good guy's side.  Sure, they'll have issues with the Fundies in the hills, but they will be able to deal with them better than the Afghans did (very low bar).

Or they can chose to stay allies with Hezbollah, the PRC, Putin and the Pakistanis.

Sadly there are enough elite people with mustaches and clean shaven faces just as bad.

The current Iranian government has greatly achieved their objectives in maintaining their heads through maintaining those links, and they keep getting blocked from forming relationships with anyone else. A reminder that Iran was going to recognize Israel until the Axis of Evil speech and the fact that the US wouldn’t end sanctions.

[PSOL]

If the beards all died they could quickly be brought to the good guy's side.  Sure, they'll have issues with the Fundies in the hills, but they will be able to deal with them better than the Afghans did (very low bar).

Or they can chose to stay allies with Hezbollah, the PRC, Putin and the Pakistanis.

Sadly there are enough elite people with mustaches and clean shaven faces just as bad.

are they though?

The current Iranian government has greatly achieved their objectives in maintaining their heads through maintaining those links, and they keep getting blocked from forming relationships with anyone else. A reminder that Iran was going to recognize Israel until the Axis of Evil speech and the fact that the US wouldn’t end sanctions.

"we won't do the right thing because the leader of the people we regularly say we hate said we hated them"

My family back home are Shahis, I can confirm they are despicable. I can also confirm that clean shaven Nazis there are also despicable.

“Good is subjective” but it’s true that they would get hate no matter what.

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So a lot of engineers for the aerospace and nuclear industry have been assassinated by Mossad lately, way more than usual. Normally the flexing is spaced out by a few months per kilo but they are really going at it.

It is clear the Israeli government, in needing to survive, wants to instigate war. Iran’s policy has been not to do first strikes because it knows it isn’t ready and wants to engage in defensive offense and seep through the cracks, like it did in Lebanon and Iraq. Still, while the chances of a second Israeli offensive into Lebanon is definite to secure the gas fields and finally create a new buffer zone to prevent missile strikes,

Ah heck who am I kidding, war is going to happen and I expect it will occur before the Biden administration leaves as the Israelis don’t trust the Republicans anymore.

[PSOL]

My position on this has not changed. We should bend over backwards for the Iranians to prevent them from developing The Bomb, but if that isn't enough, we should have all options on the table with the caveat that we will never do anything alone. At this point if talks with Iran truly are dead, I'm happy with simply telling Israel  "we couldn't do it, it's your turn".

A war instigated by either party against Iran would bury the party long term from the ensuing damage. It would also cut room to bring about the next conflict involving more competent and angsty powers to fight over the rubble. You may win against Iran, but not against Turkey.

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Iran hardly treat their minorities well either!

Persecution of Baha'is is particularly severe at present.

Baha’is present a unique challenge to the Iranian government that goes beyond ethnic or class lines that they have experience destroying less harshly. Israel’s equivalent of a mass society advocating for people to “tune out” that threatens the foundation of the state isn’t in any ethnic or normal political group of most Jews, but of hardline Haredis. For demographic survival and given the security concerns Israel faces now, they don’t act against them. Different countries have different conditions and issues and ways on dealing with them.

For a lot of reasons, security wise Baha’is present a challenge similar to atheists in that it threatens the foundation the state lies on. Obviously ending up like how Israel is now is something the Iranian government cannot risk as it risks the end of the state to function, and Haredis from the angle of them “tuning out” and the reaction of them from the fascist Orthodox Jew groups who hate them to a second degree, or even as much, as they hate Palestinians.

It’s stupid how it is, but it’s not like the Iranian government knows how to do better. But seriously, this is apples to oranges in that it just isn’t the same to Israel’s offensive against Palestinians and other ethnic minorities. The severity inflicted by the Iranian government to other ethnic groups just isn’t to that same scale compared to what the state is capable of.

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Let it be known that my hostility to the Islamic republic is well known at this point, but you cannot compare the situation with Baha’is or even with the Iranian left as liberals sometimes do and equate that with Israel to give the latter support in an argument. These are not comparable situations at all to what Israel is doing internally and externally on behalf of the Bretton-Woods order it is apart of and has been constructed by the US to function as. Ideally both governments would face internal strife to finally end and a better government actually beholden to the inhabitants of both states would arise ending the inhumanity of both regimes to the inner and external victims, but that isn’t happening.

I maintain that getting involved would be really, really bad for everyone involved and that both states do not know how bad things will get once war breaks out. The US getting involved would lead to horrors unimaginable since Vietnam and would strengthen fascism both here and there.

[PSOL]

My position on this has not changed. We should bend over backwards for the Iranians to prevent them from developing The Bomb, but if that isn't enough, we should have all options on the table with the caveat that we will never do anything alone. At this point if talks with Iran truly are dead, I'm happy with simply telling Israel  "we couldn't do it, it's your turn".

A war instigated by either party against Iran would bury the party long term from the ensuing damage. It would also cut room to bring about the next conflict involving more competent and angsty powers to fight over the rubble. You may win against Iran, but not against Turkey.

The Turkish military has never conducted a full scale offense against an enemy with state-of-the-art weapons and intelligence technology, and there is no particular reason to expect them to be any good at it.

Israel has never engaged in a state-on-state war since the 1980s and has been mainly oriented around counter insurgency and relying on its Air Force and anti-missile systems, but I have reason to believe they would still make it out somewhat better than their opponents in a hypothetical war. However a war against Turkey who has the second best military in the MENA region where they’ve deployed troops and whose expeditions have been mainly successful is not something one should be cocky about. Especially given Turkey has an Air Force actually meaning something compared to its neighbors and intelligence agencies with capabilities far beyond what Iran is capable of.

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All MPs from the Sadrist bloc have resigned recently, leaving Iraq without a government.

Sadr has consistently flip flopped from opposing the establishment to compromising in government, from supporting the Iraqi protests to being against them, and from vacillating opinions on Iran and the United States. Iraq’s future is at a standstill until a faction has complete control of government in parliament and in the civil and security apparatus currently divided between American aligned servicemen and every other bloc in Iraqi politics competing instead of doing their jobs.

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It's kind of common knowledge that Iran is looking to extend influence. The list is already extensive- Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah, Houthis, Qatar, probably missing a few. Especially with looming unrest from the global cost-of-living squeeze, if I had to guess, Lebanon is about to blow up and this cold war between Iran and the Saudi-Israeli-Egyptian axis will heat up. Another Lebanese Civil War would create a lot more tension than the current Yemeni proxy conflict, being in a nuclear power's backyard and with the other power's nuclear deal falling through. The US' allies in the region will be pushing hard for intervention, and Iran's ties to Russia and China make it look pretty appetizing to a disgraced military establishment and neo-Cold Warriors getting increasingly angry at the vindication of the declinist narrative.

Iran would be wise not to pursue any openings at this juncture tbh, but of course they will. If global instability brings down a Middle East government in the next twelve months, they and the United States' proxies will be there, and we'll be more nose-to-nose than ever. Eventually someone will throw a punch.

Iran does not really view Hezbollah as an “opening” per se into acquiring a hegemony in the region. Hezbollah was formed and funded by Iran and Syria to act as a buffer against Israel to help with two goals, aid in the economic expansion in the Mediterranean and distract Israel. War would be bad for business and helping bail out Hezbollah by getting other proxies and, god forbidding, the Quds force would be immensely costly. The government most likely would like to avoid such a fight, but that goes against the wishes of the Quds force who sees short term gains to their budget and Hezbollah’s electoral and longterm success in the region.

More importantly, Iran or Hezbollah are not the aggressors lately, Israel is—and they are threatening Lebanese sovereignty over gas fields that are legally in their control. This is insane overreach threatening war and the collapse of stability in the region moreso than what’s happened in Syria.

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Iran allegedly busts a Mossad spying operation in Baluchestan.

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Al Sadr left the government according to them over the actions of former Iraqi PM Maliki’s party. Claiming State of Law as an Iranian proxy is inaccurate as Maliki has too much of an ego to hear even to constructive criticism. Al Sadr is probably hoping for new elections so he could win a larger majority.

This statement happened
https://twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1539659169732501504

Oil exports from Iran surging. None going to the public as strikes and protests from the poor state of the country are still going strong.

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/LebUpdate/status/1540084302213439488

More grandstanding on all sides tonight.

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So Saudi and Iranian representatives met one another and Iranian media is saying it went well. We’ll see how things develop in the next few months.

A sort of peace deal in Yemen alone would normalize relations fast and even lead to wider peace as the rivalry between the Saudis and Islamic republic are made into a less hot rivalry.

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assuming they don't turn their hate (more) towards the west/Israel, peace between Sunni and Shia would be awesome for the world.

Just the worst take in this thread. The conflict is not a religious one, but one of power. And Iran’s actions are defensive in nature to preserve the smuggling and trade routes.

Iran, with China inviting them in, has joined BRICS. This is a watershed moment for the Islamic republic, and one that basically solidifies their position as not just looking westward. The level of foreign reserves to enter in the country in the next few years will give the regime breathing room. Not too long ago China was the main opponent to Iran entering the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, now in the face of western failure to attract Iran the mullahs move the ball back to their court.

[PSOL]

Hezbollah, in the aftermath of Israel breaking Lebanese sovereignty over the Karish and Qanas oil fields, has flown three reconnaissance drones over Israeli extraction infrastructure. Although they shot one down with an F-35, they failed at intercepting the rest and are back to using their F-16s. Israel has responded by doing war games in Romania for its Air Force. In the event of a war, it expects to be the offensive party. Per information gathered on Hezbollah doctrine on Wikipedia, most of their defensive bases are near the Litanni River, so they expect to lose control over land to the south of that in the face of an invasion. The Lebanese army however is a big question mark on how they would interact; would they fall apart quickly, break into sectarian militias, or hold their ground for a good amount of time.

A big question mark is if there will be more than one front during this time. Iran’s reaction to a major attack on Hezbollah is unknown to what extent they would go to. Would they try and send militias and the Sepah to Lebanon? Would Hamas join in? Would there be operations in the West Bank? Things could escalate very quickly if in the event of an Israeli incursion Hamas, PIJ, PFLP, and others stage a new Intifada. PIJ is a fully controlled proxy by Iran, but not Hamas and PFLP to that extent.

Israel’s only reliable ally here is the Lebanese Forces militarily and maybe the Pro-Abbas Fatah faction for generally non-military actions. LF hasn’t fought Hezbollah in a high intensity conflict since the civil war, yet has US and Israeli backing. If things spiral out of control in Palestine, Abbas may get involved to ensure complete control over the West Bank, but I doubt it. US support is definite, but not what that would look like.

There is serious friction in the Lebanese government over the approval of these moves. Prime Minister Najib Mikati—the richest man in Lebanon and one who was affirmed by the support of Hezbollah— and the Lebanese FM disapproved of it while President Michael Aoun approved of it. Aoun has led military excursions against Hezbollah, Israel, Syria, and the Israeli-backed SLA during different periods of the civil war. On account of wanting to stay independent and resist further encroachment from Syria and Israel in the 2000s, they became allies of convenience. Now that Syria is frankly irrelevant as a threat to Lebanon, the main threat to Lebanese sovereignty is Israel, especially on account of the ludicrous claims during Lebanon’s fuel crisis.

While both Aoun and Mikati are pro-foreign investment from Europe and the United States, and want good relations, the level of interconnection to make Aoun adopt Mikati’s position is not the same and his base is still angry for Israeli intervention in Lebanese affairs that tore up the prior sectarian consensus of the Maronites apart.

[PSOL]

As Joe Biden says ultimately nothing of substance in Israel, things are ramping up elsewhere

https://twitter.com/Intel_sky/status/1547177076343578624
https://twitter.com/Tammuz_Intel/status/1547326443679522822

Iraq is at the center of a major power play between pro-US bureaucrats, Sadrists, and the PMU alliance. Lebanon is risking war that would involve two major state actors against it; Israel and Jordan. And while the gulf state alliance has been broken, they can at least deflect themselves from attacks from the Houthis that would hinder their colonial campaigns in Yemen.

On top of this, the state department is cooking up a bull•••• story that Iran was going to commit an attack on Donald Trump. Like the Afghan bounty story, this was complete bull••••

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With more sanctions on middle men key to the Iranian economy, inflation has risen to 1995 highs and shows no sign of slowing down. All Iran can do, and has been doing, is pretend to enrich uranium.

The Lebanese government is cucking out hard to the United States in the negotiations on the gas fields. The American diplomat is treating the Lebanese as not even parties that exist and demanding everything. Given Hezbollah follows the lead of the government, ergo I expect them to do diddly squat.

This is probably the worst summer for Iran since the summer of 88.

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Israel finances the Ahwazi separatists and gives MEK training to conduct targeted assassinations, no one is innocent in this proxy war. More importantly, Iran poses no threat to US citizens or our national security, and with sky high gas prices is a prospective ally any sane person should pursue.

Anyway, the fighting is over once Ziyad met in Egypt and had the Egyptian authorities most likely threaten to cut down on their freedom to travel to and fro from Egypt. By all accounts this was a successful Israeli operation, and is another example of how fractured the various figures in Palestine actually are. Hamas is its own beast that doesn’t go with anyone’s fight but their own, and none of the secular militias are going to waste their lives over Islamists even if they have working relations with Iran.

Although this won’t cripple PIJ, as they got tons of other supporters to die for them for a position higher than being a grunt and most of their administrators live in Syria or Lebanon. They also are not very relevant enough for a crippling event to mean anything in and of itself.

[PSOL]

Iran aided in the Iraqi and Afghan invasions and was ready to recognize Israel until George Bush p!$$ed it all away.

[PSOL]

Iran aided in the Iraqi and Afghan invasions and was ready to recognize Israel until George Bush p!$$ed it all away.

Afghanistan yes, covertly.

But they will never recognize Israel.

The takeover of Herat was not done covertly.

They were going to, right up until the "axis of Evil" speech showed that the United States holds grudges for an exceptionally long time.

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The Syrian government has apparently soured on the SDF. I don’t know whether this will lead to another offensive by either Turkey or Syria soon in the future. It does show how stable the situation is in Syria, with the rebels in Idlib more likely to fight themselves than the SAA and how weak US/Kurdish positioning is in the northeast.

An invasion by one state will probably trigger a Free for all in the other Kurdish-held territories by Turkey and Syria. It would be a rather brief affair, only hampered by a well supplied YPG who had good relations with Washington, as Kurdish troops only did well with strong NATO air support. In the events of an invasion, I do hope the Syrian Kurds do put up a good fight against their northern and Southern genocidal neighbors.

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A very accurate report on the state of the labor movement in Iran and wider sociopolitical conditions. Putting it here just because it provides context in how Iran is faring under the current circumstances.

The result of the sanctions has been to push the country to a destabilized position.

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The Ilkhwan has switched sides. My sides!

Lmao, those losers are crawling to Iran after years of irrelevance in hitching themselves to the other rejects the GCC propped up. And for what, because the Houthis had populist economics? Because Ajamis are agents of Shaytan?

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https://twitter.com/ME_Observer_2/status/1559955718232481795