Goddamnit: if a wider war breaks out use this thread for context

[PSOL]

So there’s been a lot of openings for Iran to assert itself as a permanent fixture in Central Asia and the Levant.

Israel is beating the drums of war over the Karish oil fields claimed by Lebanon. Outside of usual posturing, the beginning of oil extraction is a slap on the face to Lebanon as a whole who desperately needs fuel and revenue coming in. Israel, with US financial support, is also strengthening their own missile systems to prevent Hezbollah and Hamas rockets from impacting them much with Iron Beam. They’ve also shared radar technology with the gulf states to prevent pressure from the Houthis. Currently, Iran is in an arms and technology race to counteract such a partnership and ensure they have leverage with their proxies.

In Central Asia, Iran is trying to find an opening with the US out and all the Turkic states afraid of the battle hardened Afghan army. Iran has returned US equipment smuggled into iran back to Afghanistan and has taken advantage of the fear and economic despair. They’ve increased exports to Tajikistan by 500% alone and have built drone factories and other manufacturing plants there.

None of this points to war instigated by Iran or even a wider escalation of the proxy conflict short term, mind you. What it does point out is that Iran is embedding itself to wait out the attrition conflict long term to see the Saudis fall and focus on expanding smuggling routes.

[CumbrianLefty]

What it does point out is that Iran is embedding itself to wait out the attrition conflict long term to see the Saudis fall and focus on expanding smuggling routes.

Can't happen a day too soon.

[dead0man]

If the beards all died they could quickly be brought to the good guy's side.  Sure, they'll have issues with the Fundies in the hills, but they will be able to deal with them better than the Afghans did (very low bar).

Or they can chose to stay allies with Hezbollah, the PRC, Putin and the Pakistanis.

[PSOL]

If the beards all died they could quickly be brought to the good guy's side.  Sure, they'll have issues with the Fundies in the hills, but they will be able to deal with them better than the Afghans did (very low bar).

Or they can chose to stay allies with Hezbollah, the PRC, Putin and the Pakistanis.

Sadly there are enough elite people with mustaches and clean shaven faces just as bad.

The current Iranian government has greatly achieved their objectives in maintaining their heads through maintaining those links, and they keep getting blocked from forming relationships with anyone else. A reminder that Iran was going to recognize Israel until the Axis of Evil speech and the fact that the US wouldn’t end sanctions.

[dead0man]

If the beards all died they could quickly be brought to the good guy's side.  Sure, they'll have issues with the Fundies in the hills, but they will be able to deal with them better than the Afghans did (very low bar).

Or they can chose to stay allies with Hezbollah, the PRC, Putin and the Pakistanis.

Sadly there are enough elite people with mustaches and clean shaven faces just as bad.

are they though?

The current Iranian government has greatly achieved their objectives in maintaining their heads through maintaining those links, and they keep getting blocked from forming relationships with anyone else. A reminder that Iran was going to recognize Israel until the Axis of Evil speech and the fact that the US wouldn’t end sanctions.

"we won't do the right thing because the leader of the people we regularly say we hate said we hated them"

[PSOL]

If the beards all died they could quickly be brought to the good guy's side.  Sure, they'll have issues with the Fundies in the hills, but they will be able to deal with them better than the Afghans did (very low bar).

Or they can chose to stay allies with Hezbollah, the PRC, Putin and the Pakistanis.

Sadly there are enough elite people with mustaches and clean shaven faces just as bad.

are they though?

The current Iranian government has greatly achieved their objectives in maintaining their heads through maintaining those links, and they keep getting blocked from forming relationships with anyone else. A reminder that Iran was going to recognize Israel until the Axis of Evil speech and the fact that the US wouldn’t end sanctions.

"we won't do the right thing because the leader of the people we regularly say we hate said we hated them"

My family back home are Shahis, I can confirm they are despicable. I can also confirm that clean shaven Nazis there are also despicable.

“Good is subjective” but it’s true that they would get hate no matter what.

[MATTROSE94]

If the beards all died they could quickly be brought to the good guy's side.  Sure, they'll have issues with the Fundies in the hills, but they will be able to deal with them better than the Afghans did (very low bar).

Or they can chose to stay allies with Hezbollah, the PRC, Putin and the Pakistanis.

Sadly there are enough elite people with mustaches and clean shaven faces just as bad.

are they though?

The current Iranian government has greatly achieved their objectives in maintaining their heads through maintaining those links, and they keep getting blocked from forming relationships with anyone else. A reminder that Iran was going to recognize Israel until the Axis of Evil speech and the fact that the US wouldn’t end sanctions.

"we won't do the right thing because the leader of the people we regularly say we hate said we hated them"

My family back home are Shahis, I can confirm they are despicable. I can also confirm that clean shaven Nazis there are also despicable.

“Good is subjective” but it’s true that they would get hate no matter what.

Interesting. are you Iranian American or no? If so, are you more pro-Shah, pro-Islamic Republic, or a supporter of other Iranian political movements?

[It’s so Joever]

We can’t see the world in a black and white lens. Yes Irán is bad, but it’s become I crea singly clear our sanctions are not working and have only hurt us. We had ZERO reason to withdraw from the nuclear deal and we should work for a new one asap.

[PSOL]

So a lot of engineers for the aerospace and nuclear industry have been assassinated by Mossad lately, way more than usual. Normally the flexing is spaced out by a few months per kilo but they are really going at it.

It is clear the Israeli government, in needing to survive, wants to instigate war. Iran’s policy has been not to do first strikes because it knows it isn’t ready and wants to engage in defensive offense and seep through the cracks, like it did in Lebanon and Iraq. Still, while the chances of a second Israeli offensive into Lebanon is definite to secure the gas fields and finally create a new buffer zone to prevent missile strikes,

Ah heck who am I kidding, war is going to happen and I expect it will occur before the Biden administration leaves as the Israelis don’t trust the Republicans anymore.

[dead0man]

So a lot of engineers for the aerospace and nuclear industry have been assassinated by Mossad lately, way more than usual. Normally the flexing is spaced out by a few months per kilo but they are really going at it.

It is clear the Israeli government, in needing to survive, wants to instigate war. Iran’s policy has been not to do first strikes because it knows it isn’t ready and wants to engage in defensive offense and seep through the cracks, like it did in Lebanon and Iraq. Still, while the chances of a second Israeli offensive into Lebanon is definite to secure the gas fields and finally create a new buffer zone to prevent missile strikes,

Ah heck who am I kidding, war is going to happen and I expect it will occur before the Biden administration leaves as the Israelis don’t trust the Republicans anymore.

you are predicting war with Iran?  That's been a very popular prediction over the years, many progressives (and other haters of the west) just knew Dubya was going to declare war and do so to stay in office.  Fewer, but still some, predicted Obama would, many more predicted Trump would.  Maybe eventually you'll be right. 

[Person Man]

My position on this has not changed. We should bend over backwards for the Iranians to prevent them from developing The Bomb, but if that isn't enough, we should have all options on the table with the caveat that we will never do anything alone. At this point if talks with Iran truly are dead, I'm happy with simply telling Israel  "we couldn't do it, it's your turn".

[LAKISYLVANIA]

There's no need to start a war with Iran, and i'd never support a war against Iran, in fact i'd support Iran in such a war (unless Iran starts it which won't happen but in that case i'd support Israël).

It's not like Israeli are the good guys here when they literally have an apartheid state which nobody seems to care about (even the woketypes).

[CumbrianLefty]

So a lot of engineers for the aerospace and nuclear industry have been assassinated by Mossad lately, way more than usual. Normally the flexing is spaced out by a few months per kilo but they are really going at it.

It is clear the Israeli government, in needing to survive, wants to instigate war. Iran’s policy has been not to do first strikes because it knows it isn’t ready and wants to engage in defensive offense and seep through the cracks, like it did in Lebanon and Iraq. Still, while the chances of a second Israeli offensive into Lebanon is definite to secure the gas fields and finally create a new buffer zone to prevent missile strikes,

Ah heck who am I kidding, war is going to happen and I expect it will occur before the Biden administration leaves as the Israelis don’t trust the Republicans anymore.

you are predicting war with Iran?  That's been a very popular prediction over the years, many progressives (and other haters of the west) just knew Dubya was going to declare war and do so to stay in office.  Fewer, but still some, predicted Obama would, many more predicted Trump would.  Maybe eventually you'll be right. 

Tbf certain Washingon pundits started calling for war with Iran in the early Clinton years.

[Zinneke]

There's no need to start a war with Iran, and i'd never support a war against Iran, in fact i'd support Iran in such a war (unless Iran starts it which won't happen but in that case i'd support Israël).

It's not like Israeli are the good guys here when they literally have an apartheid state which nobody seems to care about (even the woketypes).

Iran hardly treat their minorities well either!

[Person Man]

There's no need to start a war with Iran, and i'd never support a war against Iran, in fact i'd support Iran in such a war (unless Iran starts it which won't happen but in that case i'd support Israël).

It's not like Israeli are the good guys here when they literally have an apartheid state which nobody seems to care about (even the woketypes).

Iran hardly treat their minorities well either!

The situation is something. I guess we have to have an incrementalistic approach on these situations which, at this time, favors Israel.

[PSOL]

My position on this has not changed. We should bend over backwards for the Iranians to prevent them from developing The Bomb, but if that isn't enough, we should have all options on the table with the caveat that we will never do anything alone. At this point if talks with Iran truly are dead, I'm happy with simply telling Israel  "we couldn't do it, it's your turn".

A war instigated by either party against Iran would bury the party long term from the ensuing damage. It would also cut room to bring about the next conflict involving more competent and angsty powers to fight over the rubble. You may win against Iran, but not against Turkey.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Iran hardly treat their minorities well either!

Persecution of Baha'is is particularly severe at present.

[PSOL]

Iran hardly treat their minorities well either!

Persecution of Baha'is is particularly severe at present.

Baha’is present a unique challenge to the Iranian government that goes beyond ethnic or class lines that they have experience destroying less harshly. Israel’s equivalent of a mass society advocating for people to “tune out” that threatens the foundation of the state isn’t in any ethnic or normal political group of most Jews, but of hardline Haredis. For demographic survival and given the security concerns Israel faces now, they don’t act against them. Different countries have different conditions and issues and ways on dealing with them.

For a lot of reasons, security wise Baha’is present a challenge similar to atheists in that it threatens the foundation the state lies on. Obviously ending up like how Israel is now is something the Iranian government cannot risk as it risks the end of the state to function, and Haredis from the angle of them “tuning out” and the reaction of them from the fascist Orthodox Jew groups who hate them to a second degree, or even as much, as they hate Palestinians.

It’s stupid how it is, but it’s not like the Iranian government knows how to do better. But seriously, this is apples to oranges in that it just isn’t the same to Israel’s offensive against Palestinians and other ethnic minorities. The severity inflicted by the Iranian government to other ethnic groups just isn’t to that same scale compared to what the state is capable of.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Also a kind of "whataboutism". Doesn't mean Israël are suddenly the good guys now. They however get our unequivocal support.

If we're than like: "hi Xi, can you please spare the uyghurs", than maybe... one wouldn't wonder why half of the world doesn't take our allegations serious.

[PSOL]

Let it be known that my hostility to the Islamic republic is well known at this point, but you cannot compare the situation with Baha’is or even with the Iranian left as liberals sometimes do and equate that with Israel to give the latter support in an argument. These are not comparable situations at all to what Israel is doing internally and externally on behalf of the Bretton-Woods order it is apart of and has been constructed by the US to function as. Ideally both governments would face internal strife to finally end and a better government actually beholden to the inhabitants of both states would arise ending the inhumanity of both regimes to the inner and external victims, but that isn’t happening.

I maintain that getting involved would be really, really bad for everyone involved and that both states do not know how bad things will get once war breaks out. The US getting involved would lead to horrors unimaginable since Vietnam and would strengthen fascism both here and there.

[Lord Halifax]

My position on this has not changed. We should bend over backwards for the Iranians to prevent them from developing The Bomb, but if that isn't enough, we should have all options on the table with the caveat that we will never do anything alone. At this point if talks with Iran truly are dead, I'm happy with simply telling Israel  "we couldn't do it, it's your turn".

A war instigated by either party against Iran would bury the party long term from the ensuing damage. It would also cut room to bring about the next conflict involving more competent and angsty powers to fight over the rubble. You may win against Iran, but not against Turkey.

The Turkish military has never conducted a full scale offense against an enemy with state-of-the-art weapons and intelligence technology, and there is no particular reason to expect them to be any good at it.

[PSOL]

My position on this has not changed. We should bend over backwards for the Iranians to prevent them from developing The Bomb, but if that isn't enough, we should have all options on the table with the caveat that we will never do anything alone. At this point if talks with Iran truly are dead, I'm happy with simply telling Israel  "we couldn't do it, it's your turn".

A war instigated by either party against Iran would bury the party long term from the ensuing damage. It would also cut room to bring about the next conflict involving more competent and angsty powers to fight over the rubble. You may win against Iran, but not against Turkey.

The Turkish military has never conducted a full scale offense against an enemy with state-of-the-art weapons and intelligence technology, and there is no particular reason to expect them to be any good at it.

Israel has never engaged in a state-on-state war since the 1980s and has been mainly oriented around counter insurgency and relying on its Air Force and anti-missile systems, but I have reason to believe they would still make it out somewhat better than their opponents in a hypothetical war. However a war against Turkey who has the second best military in the MENA region where they’ve deployed troops and whose expeditions have been mainly successful is not something one should be cocky about. Especially given Turkey has an Air Force actually meaning something compared to its neighbors and intelligence agencies with capabilities far beyond what Iran is capable of.

[Agonized-Statism]

It's kind of common knowledge that Iran is looking to extend influence. The list is already extensive- Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah, Houthis, Qatar, probably missing a few. Especially with looming unrest from the global cost-of-living squeeze, if I had to guess, Lebanon is about to blow up and this cold war between Iran and the Saudi-Israeli-Egyptian axis will heat up. Another Lebanese Civil War would create a lot more tension than the current Yemeni proxy conflict, being in a nuclear power's backyard and with the other power's nuclear deal falling through. The US' allies in the region will be pushing hard for intervention, and Iran's ties to Russia and China make it look pretty appetizing to a disgraced military establishment and neo-Cold Warriors getting increasingly angry at the vindication of the declinist narrative.

Iran would be wise not to pursue any openings at this juncture tbh, but of course they will. If global instability brings down a Middle East government in the next twelve months, they and the United States' proxies will be there, and we'll be more nose-to-nose than ever. Eventually someone will throw a punch.

[PSOL]

All MPs from the Sadrist bloc have resigned recently, leaving Iraq without a government.

Sadr has consistently flip flopped from opposing the establishment to compromising in government, from supporting the Iraqi protests to being against them, and from vacillating opinions on Iran and the United States. Iraq’s future is at a standstill until a faction has complete control of government in parliament and in the civil and security apparatus currently divided between American aligned servicemen and every other bloc in Iraqi politics competing instead of doing their jobs.

[PSOL]

It's kind of common knowledge that Iran is looking to extend influence. The list is already extensive- Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah, Houthis, Qatar, probably missing a few. Especially with looming unrest from the global cost-of-living squeeze, if I had to guess, Lebanon is about to blow up and this cold war between Iran and the Saudi-Israeli-Egyptian axis will heat up. Another Lebanese Civil War would create a lot more tension than the current Yemeni proxy conflict, being in a nuclear power's backyard and with the other power's nuclear deal falling through. The US' allies in the region will be pushing hard for intervention, and Iran's ties to Russia and China make it look pretty appetizing to a disgraced military establishment and neo-Cold Warriors getting increasingly angry at the vindication of the declinist narrative.

Iran would be wise not to pursue any openings at this juncture tbh, but of course they will. If global instability brings down a Middle East government in the next twelve months, they and the United States' proxies will be there, and we'll be more nose-to-nose than ever. Eventually someone will throw a punch.

Iran does not really view Hezbollah as an “opening” per se into acquiring a hegemony in the region. Hezbollah was formed and funded by Iran and Syria to act as a buffer against Israel to help with two goals, aid in the economic expansion in the Mediterranean and distract Israel. War would be bad for business and helping bail out Hezbollah by getting other proxies and, god forbidding, the Quds force would be immensely costly. The government most likely would like to avoid such a fight, but that goes against the wishes of the Quds force who sees short term gains to their budget and Hezbollah’s electoral and longterm success in the region.

More importantly, Iran or Hezbollah are not the aggressors lately, Israel is—and they are threatening Lebanese sovereignty over gas fields that are legally in their control. This is insane overreach threatening war and the collapse of stability in the region moreso than what’s happened in Syria.