I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016.
I didn't single out Taiwanese because there are probably too few Taiwanese Americans (only 230k in the 2010 Census!) for them to be reliably disaggregated in political polling of AAPI Americans. I have absolutely no idea if there are any meaningful differences in partisanship among different Chinese immigrant waves from different jurisdictions (or different parts of China) that cannot be explained by other demographic factors that normally affect partisanship (occupation, socioeconomic status, religious affiliation, etc.)
My subjective impression is that Taiwanese Americans are demographically a better fit for the Dem base (in terms of educational attainment, occupational clustering, and social liberalism) than the ethnic Chinese American voting population as a whole. Although there are definitely a certain number of Religious Right- or business conservative-oriented Taiwanese American Millennials out there.
Native-born and post-doi moi immigrant VietAms don't seem to have the same deep emotional attachment to the GOP as the refugees who comprise the bulk of Vietnamese American voters (as of 2022 virtually all VietAm R candidates for elected office seem to be refugees)- even if they're still relatively receptive to anti-China posturing. This means VietAms should trend D as younger and increasingly college educated voters join the electorate.
I expect Indian Americans to trend R (at least relative to all Asian Americans if not the overall electorate) as they're kind of the political inverse of Vietnamese Americans in how D they are. There could be more potential for recent and future Indian immigrant waves to vote more in accordance with their ideological leanings and demographic factors and shift the Indian American vote rightwards.
Not making any predictions about swings because I honestly have no idea what will happen. My gut tells me no R presidential candidate will win more than 40% of Asian American voters in the foreseeable future unless they're already winning the NPV.
I have spent 20 years in the Asian heavy county of Fairfax and being Chinese myself I will try to answer this. Asians on the macro level aren’t that different from blacks/hispanics in how they feel that American society is biased against them. Blacks/Hispanics will often point out how they achieve lower socioeconomic outcomes and endure negative societal perceptions in crime and stereotyping, similarly a lot of Chinese Americans feel that despite having superior educational attainment and work ethic they are being passed over for job promotions and career advancement via the “bamboo ceiling” and having been labeled the “model minority”. Fundamentally, Asians like other minorities feel strongly that the standard American cultural system is rigged against them and by extension an indictment on the status quo policy of the Republican party.
Tell me "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy" without (literally) saying "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy". Or in the case of Vietnamese, went from being reliably R group to more of a tossup group.
In fact, I think first gen Asians are overwhelmingly more R leaning than second gen. IMO First gen Asians will trend right post Trump. I am not sure about third gen, since there are not enough of them.
Ironically, Asians feel completely opposite discriminations from Blacks. They were not discriminated by the police due to their low crime rate and good behavior in general. They were not considered as lazy or incompetent for obvious reasons. On they contrary, they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.
idk. It depends on how long this current moment of anti-Chinese/East Asian sentiment lasts, and who it gets blamed on in the long run. Atm it's definitely seems to be fitting into a wider narrative of Dem cities in disarray with the associated minority-on-minority violence narrative but i think khuzifenq is right that if anti-Chinese xenophobia continues b/c of wider geopolitical issues, anti-Asian sentiment might get increasingly associated with the right again. Depending on how it goes, a swing a la Muslims/South Asians post-9/11 towards Dems is a possibility.
(I'm not particularly excited about this future, but also at some point, the immigration debate does have to catch up with the fact that Asians have overtaken Latin Americans as the main entrants to country and I could see that have implications on the Asian vote.)
