Data guru Harry Enten: GOP in best midterm position in 80 years, predicts 236-241 seats

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol that would be a gain of 23-28 seats. It would be a comfortable win, but the headline makes it sound like it'll be a historic thrashing.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

You guys do know that he was talking about the 1942 midterms, which came 4 years after the GOP regained steam in 1938. In all the 80 years of polling up to this moment, the GOP never really had a lead like this yet usually had good election years (2014 was a recent example despite Dems leading by 1 by this point in 2015).

[Waldo]

What a despicable country we live in.

Ok, Miss Abrams.

[jaichind]

Something does not seem right here.  If he is predicting the best environment for the GOP in 80 years then why is his seat projection have GOP underperforming in 2010 and 2014?  I assume  this is because the map in 2022 is not as favorable for the GOP as in 2010 and 2014 ?

[wesmoorenerd]

It's not a given that the GOP will be able to match 2010/2014, let alone exceed it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Something does not seem right here.  If he is predicting the best environment for the GOP in 80 years then why is his seat projection have GOP underperforming in 2010 and 2014?  I assume  this is because the map in 2022 is not as favorable for the GOP as in 2010 and 2014 ?

Looking at his comments again, I'm reading it as he believes they have the highest chance in 80 years to take back the house because of how slim the Democrats' current majority is... not that they are poised for a historic landslide victory.

[jaichind]

Something does not seem right here.  If he is predicting the best environment for the GOP in 80 years then why is his seat projection have GOP underperforming in 2010 and 2014?  I assume  this is because the map in 2022 is not as favorable for the GOP as in 2010 and 2014 ?

Looking at his comments again, I'm reading it as he believes they have the highest chance in 80 years to take back the house because of how slim the Democrats' current majority is... not that they are poised for a historic landslide victory.

But he had a chart showing the CGB at the most pro-GOP levels for June of any midterm year in the last 80 years.  BTW, I do not think in reality the GOP vote share victory in 2022 will match 2014 let alone 2010.  The electorate is too polarized for that to take place.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And yet people still think Democrats will hold NV-SEN and AZ-SEN.

I don’t, but it is easier to image everything going right/wrong in one race than tens of them.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Something does not seem right here.  If he is predicting the best environment for the GOP in 80 years then why is his seat projection have GOP underperforming in 2010 and 2014?  I assume  this is because the map in 2022 is not as favorable for the GOP as in 2010 and 2014 ?

Gerrymandering

[Hindsight was 2020]

What a despicable country we live in.

I paid $4.96 for gas today on my way to buy chicken thighs for $5.99/lb to feed to my kids, who thankfully are old enough to not need formula anymore.

The republicans won’t fix any of that nor are they even running on any platform that at least pretends to care about that

[The Mikado]

That would be less than 25 seat pickups. A comfortable victory, but not exactly earth shattering. Democrats were clobbered much harder as recently as 2010.

The starting place matters when discussing losses.

After all, 2010 ended up with the GOP at 242. It was a 63 seat gain, but one where they started off WAY WAY lower than they currently are.

And FWIW GOP ending up at 241 would be a 28 seat pickup, and 28>25.

[Pericles]

Republicans got 246 seats in 1946 and 247 seats in 2014. The record to beat is 270 Republican seats from 1928, fortunately that basically can't be beaten. Still, it's somewhat plausible that Republicans have the best House result in 94 years, which certainly sounds a lot better than the best result in 8 years. Republicans won the popular vote by 8.5% in 1946, which looks hard (but not impossible) to exceed.

[Sir Mohamed]

At the risk of sounding like a partisan hack, I'm gonna say it anyway: It's actually something we're talking about this, given what the GOP has done recent years. Not just their denial about Trump and 1/6 and extreme political stances, they haven't introduced a single piece of legislation that does advance the average American. NOTA. Save a few random members, they haven't negotiated in good faith about a single piece of legislation to help the average Joe. If anything, they should lose seats from here, not gain.

[wesmoorenerd]

At the risk of sounding like a partisan hack, I'm gonna say it anyway: It's actually something we're talking about this, given what the GOP has done recent years. Not just their denial about Trump and 1/6 and extreme political stances, they haven't introduced a single piece of legislation that does advance the average American. NOTA. Save a few random members, they haven't negotiated in good faith about a single piece of legislation to help the average Joe. If anything, they should lose seats from here, not gain.

This is the result of a society and a media climate that refuses to acknowledge that one side could possibly be objectively superior to the other. Both sides must always be treated the exact same way and depicted in the exact same light.

[Unelectable Bystander]

At the risk of sounding like a partisan hack, I'm gonna say it anyway: It's actually something we're talking about this, given what the GOP has done recent years. Not just their denial about Trump and 1/6 and extreme political stances, they haven't introduced a single piece of legislation that does advance the average American. NOTA. Save a few random members, they haven't negotiated in good faith about a single piece of legislation to help the average Joe. If anything, they should lose seats from here, not gain.

This is the result of a society and a media climate that refuses to acknowledge that one side could possibly be objectively superior to the other. Both sides must always be treated the exact same way and depicted in the exact same light.

This doesn’t make any sense. If you take a poll of all media in the entire country and asked if the left is morally superior to the right, they would vote yes by a margin of probably 75-25%. If you ask all Americans the same question, they would vote no by roughly the same margin.

The media apparatuses are lopsided in a way that doesn’t even attempt to appear objective. Imagine the hysteria if a late night host brought on Donald Trump and talked about his agenda using terms like “we”. Imagine the hysteria (and rightly so) if a lunatic attempted to take out a left wing Supreme Court justice. What you are actually pouting about is that ordinary Americans don’t buy this “superior left” nonsense even though the media is ordering them to do so. Thus, blame the voters and the institutions as always.

[Unelectable Bystander]

At the risk of sounding like a partisan hack, I'm gonna say it anyway: It's actually something we're talking about this, given what the GOP has done recent years. Not just their denial about Trump and 1/6 and extreme political stances, they haven't introduced a single piece of legislation that does advance the average American. NOTA. Save a few random members, they haven't negotiated in good faith about a single piece of legislation to help the average Joe. If anything, they should lose seats from here, not gain.

The implication of this statement is that if voters choose republicans over democrats in this midterm, they will be essentially saying “I prefer doing absolutely nothing rather than doing what democrats are proposing”. This is what I believe to be the case. Voters have and will vote for “nobody” (even in extreme cases like the NJ truck driver) over a democrat, which speaks to the current administration being way too liberal or way too incompetent for Americans. I wish the answer was too liberal, but I think it’s due to the incompetence

[Xing]

I mean, that range of seats is about what I'm expecting. Certainly a good result for them, though not historically good by any stretch of the imagination.

[MATTROSE94]

You guys do know that he was talking about the 1942 midterms, which came 4 years after the GOP regained steam in 1938. In all the 80 years of polling up to this moment, the GOP never really had a lead like this yet usually had good election years (2014 was a recent example despite Dems leading by 1 by this point in 2015).

I agree. I have the Republicans easily netting 100 House seats from the Democrats. Such a majority will easily hold through until the 2026 midterm elections, which will take place during Donald Trumps second term.

[Dr. MB]

You guys do know that he was talking about the 1942 midterms, which came 4 years after the GOP regained steam in 1938. In all the 80 years of polling up to this moment, the GOP never really had a lead like this yet usually had good election years (2014 was a recent example despite Dems leading by 1 by this point in 2015).

I agree. I have the Republicans easily netting 100 House seats from the Democrats. Such a majority will easily hold through until the 2026 midterm elections, which will take place during Donald Trumps second term.

Only 100? I’m thinking at least 150, probably more in the 160-170 range.

[Rookie Yinzer]

What a despicable country we live in.

Ok, Miss Abrams.

What? LOL.

The brain rot on this forum is real.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, we don't know how the Election is gonna turn out

[Huey Long is a Republican]

You guys do know that he was talking about the 1942 midterms, which came 4 years after the GOP regained steam in 1938. In all the 80 years of polling up to this moment, the GOP never really had a lead like this yet usually had good election years (2014 was a recent example despite Dems leading by 1 by this point in 2015).

I agree. I have the Republicans easily netting 100 House seats from the Democrats. Such a majority will easily hold through until the 2026 midterm elections, which will take place during Donald Trumps second term.

Wow, how kind to take my words out of context there. Nowhere did I say that I expected the GOP to make utterly massive gains like what you're saying (quite the opposite. 35-40 is currently my max position due to how gerrymandered the nation currently is). All I was saying was that the GOP was going to do extremely well with the popular vote this election cycle, far better than 2014 or 2010 from the looks of things and how polling was looking the best it has been since 1942 for Republicans. Nothing else

[dunceDude]

Not to be a hater but there's clearly a lot of cope among Democrats here. And a lot of fake uncertainty. The midterm environment is unfortunately set and it's not changing. On the biggest issues -- inflation, gas prices, and supply chain problems -- there's no relief coming before November. That's just how Biden's cookie has crumbled.

My optimistic take is that this outcome is good for Biden's odds in '24. He gets to run as the only thing stopping a strong far right government. And the potential for a strong economy in '24 is high. I have a lot of hope that the wider societal unrest we're experiencing will mellow by 2028, so perhaps this is enough to avoid the worst threats to rule of law.

[Sir Mohamed]

You guys do know that he was talking about the 1942 midterms, which came 4 years after the GOP regained steam in 1938. In all the 80 years of polling up to this moment, the GOP never really had a lead like this yet usually had good election years (2014 was a recent example despite Dems leading by 1 by this point in 2015).

I agree. I have the Republicans easily netting 100 House seats from the Democrats. Such a majority will easily hold through until the 2026 midterm elections, which will take place during Donald Trumps second term.

Only 100? I’m thinking at least 150, probably more in the 160-170 range.

You are a partisan Dem hack. The GOP is more likely to break 400 seats. It'll be around 405-30. And Brandon gets impeached on January 3, 2023 already. Game over, libtards!

[Person Man]

Not to be a hater but there's clearly a lot of cope among Democrats here. And a lot of fake uncertainty. The midterm environment is unfortunately set and it's not changing. On the biggest issues -- inflation, gas prices, and supply chain problems -- there's no relief coming before November. That's just how Biden's cookie has crumbled.

My optimistic take is that this outcome is good for Biden's odds in '24. He gets to run as the only thing stopping a strong far right government. And the potential for a strong economy in '24 is high. I have a lot of hope that the wider societal unrest we're experiencing will mellow by 2028, so perhaps this is enough to avoid the worst threats to rule of law.

I am no longer banking on the unrest ending. Conservative are relitigating pretty much every single culture war battle since the Depression.