Data guru Harry Enten: GOP in best midterm position in 80 years, predicts 236-241 seats

[Matty]

I would say they’re looking very good from the historical context. Basically, I took the best Republican positions on the generic congressional ballot at this point in midterm cycles since 1938, that generic ballot basically is, “Would you vote for the generic Republican or generic Democrat in your district?”

And guess what, since 1938, the Republican two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is the best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years. It beats 2010, when Republicans were up a point.

“Now, of course, the election is not being held tomorrow, and we’ll see,” Enten added. “Sometimes history isn’t always prologue, but my estimate for the 2023 House makeup, if the election were held today, which again, it isn’t, we still have five months, five months from tomorrow, would be Republicans, 236 seats to 241 seats. Democrats, 194 to 199. That’s based off a formula of seat-to-seat race ratings from the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.”

Tapper noted a House where Republicans held up to 241 seats would be a “stomping,” to which Enten agreed.

Wow

https://mobile.twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1533947558678102017

[SnowLabrador]

What a despicable country we live in.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't like these experts who claim the range of outcomes for the House will be in a 5 seat range, especially this far out. Also Enten reguarly goes between liberal hack and doomer which seems to guide a lot of his analysis more than the numbers.

[Senator Incitatus]

This analysis also doesn’t mention polling error. He is probably underestimating Republicans.

The good news for Democrats is that their true floor can’t be much lower in the House, since they have a lot of absolutely unloseable urban seats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Just GOP or overall cause there is no way things look worse for the Dems than 1974 GOP or even 2006 GOP (Keep in mind Bush approvals were higher in October than June )

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans can easily get to 300 seats.

They also can completely botch things and actually lose seats too. It's still too early to tell how things will go, and Harry Enten is kidding himself if he thinks he can put a number on it right now.

[Pericles]

241 isn't that huge, Republicans got that in 2016 and Democrats got 235 in 2018. If it's a big wave, Republicans could do even better.

[wesmoorenerd]

Republicans can easily get to 300 seats.

They also can completely botch things and actually lose seats too. It's still too early to tell how things will go, and Harry Enten is kidding himself if he thinks he can put a number on it right now.

Don't think you know what easily means. If they're winning 300 seats they're winning quite a few seats Biden won by over 20.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The fact that the biggest Republican win would only have them at about 240 tells you how gerrymandered the country is.

[wesmoorenerd]

I think the GOP maxes out at around 260 and bottoms out at a nearly tied house at the moment.

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans can easily get to 300 seats.

They also can completely botch things and actually lose seats too. It's still too early to tell how things will go, and Harry Enten is kidding himself if he thinks he can put a number on it right now.

Don't think you know what easily means. If they're winning 300 seats they're winning quite a few seats Biden won by over 20.

If the wave's big enough, they can. They theoretically can also lose 20+ seats. It's still too early to predict a margin.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not surprised. I wish we could have a vote of no confidence on Biden and Pelosi like they did Johnson in the UK. They're the reason we're losing.

[MATTROSE94]

Republicans can easily get to 300 seats.

They also can completely botch things and actually lose seats too. It's still too early to tell how things will go, and Harry Enten is kidding himself if he thinks he can put a number on it right now.

Don't think you know what easily means. If they're winning 300 seats they're winning quite a few seats Biden won by over 20.

If the wave's big enough, they can. They theoretically can also lose 20+ seats. It's still too early to predict a margin.

I agree. I have the Republicans winning every House seat that is Biden +25 or less. That will give the Republicans well over 300 seats.

[Politician]

And yet people still think Democrats will hold NV-SEN and AZ-SEN.

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans can easily get to 300 seats.

They also can completely botch things and actually lose seats too. It's still too early to tell how things will go, and Harry Enten is kidding himself if he thinks he can put a number on it right now.

Don't think you know what easily means. If they're winning 300 seats they're winning quite a few seats Biden won by over 20.

If the wave's big enough, they can. They theoretically can also lose 20+ seats. It's still too early to predict a margin.

I agree. I have the Republicans winning every House seat that is Biden +25 or less. That will give the Republicans well over 300 seats.

I think you are misrepresenting what I am saying here. While I think it is possible for Republicans to get to 300 seats in the House, it's also very possible they lose 20 or more seats too.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm not surprised. I wish we could have a vote of no confidence on Biden and Pelosi like they did Johnson in the UK. They're the reason we're losing.

I'm going to disagree. We were going to lose 2022 (and probably 2024) from the minute the 2020 election was called for Biden, and there isn't really much Biden, Pelosi or anyone else could have done or can do to prevent it (short of declaring Biden a dictator).

[Person Man]

I think the GOP maxes out at around 260 and bottoms out at a nearly tied house at the moment.

I think SirWoodbury's maps are about right with the maximum possible amount of seats and the median numbers of seats they will get.

What Enten is forecasting is basically a 25 seat gain for Republicans, which sounds about right.

[Ferguson97]

I don't understand, if they "only" get 241 seats the that would be worse than their performance in 1994 or 2010.

I actually do think that 240 is about right, but by what metric is that the "best position in 80 years"?

Republicans can easily get to 300 seats.

They also can completely botch things and actually lose seats too.

Neither of these statements are even close to being remotely true.

[Tartarus Sauce]

That would be less than 25 seat pickups. A comfortable victory, but not exactly earth shattering. Democrats were clobbered much harder as recently as 2010.

[DrScholl]

Going off history is a stupid metric because historical precedent changes almost every cycle. Evaluating the map it is clear to see that it's nearly impossible for Republicans to gain that many seats when the number of Democratically held Trump seats is fairly low. Of course if you assume extremely low turnout Republicans could gain Biden seats. But without low turnout Republicans need to win over Biden voters and after almost two years of denying that Trump lost it will be pretty difficult to win those voters. History is a poor metric and should no longer be weighed into forecasts in a polarized environment.

[GALeftist]

IndyRep has been banging this drum a lot recently, but I do think it's worth noting the absurd gap between predictions like these and predictions that races like PA-SEN are tossups. It's one or the other, folks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IndyRep has been banging this drum a lot recently, but I do think it's worth noting the absurd gap between predictions like these and predictions that races like PA-SEN are tossups. It's one or the other, folks.

Not really.  There are far fewer Senate races than House races, so candidate quality in individual Senate races is important.  One way to look at it: if this was a totally neutral environment, who would be favored in PA-SEN?  I'm inclined to think Fetterman would be at least a small favorite.  With that as a starting point, it's reasonable to consider the race a tossup in a pro-R environment; similarly, if it was a pro-D environment I'd expect Fetterman to win easily.

In the House, a 25-30 seat gain for Republicans is right where I'm at based on fundamentals, although I may lower this if it looks like Democratic anger/enthusiasm is sustained following the release of the Dobbs decision.

[Unelectable Bystander]

IndyRep has been banging this drum a lot recently, but I do think it's worth noting the absurd gap between predictions like these and predictions that races like PA-SEN are tossups. It's one or the other, folks.

Not really.  There are far fewer Senate races than House races, so candidate quality in individual Senate races is important.  One way to look at it: if this was a totally neutral environment, who would be favored in PA-SEN?  I'm inclined to think Fetterman would be at least a small favorite.  With that as a starting point, it's reasonable to consider the race a tossup in a pro-R environment; similarly, if it was a pro-D environment I'd expect Fetterman to win easily.

In the House, a 25-30 seat gain for Republicans is right where I'm at based on fundamentals, although I may lower this if it looks like Democratic anger/enthusiasm is sustained following the release of the Dobbs decision.

The house is the same thing though. They have had incumbents like Young Kim, Fitzpatrick, Crenshaw, and Mike Garcia while the Dems have titans who managed to run even with Biden. They’ll be lucky to win any race that was less than Trump +15

[lfromnj]

What a despicable country we live in.

I paid $4.96 for gas today on my way to buy chicken thighs for $5.99/lb to feed to my kids, who thankfully are old enough to not need formula anymore.

Are you buying organic chicken thighs? I mean thighs have gotten more expensive and it sucks but I still get them at Costco for 1.30 a pound up from 1 dollar a pound . So much less chicken tandoori.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This framing is too sensationalist and I'm sure has more to do with clickbaiting than serious analysis.
2014 was only eight freaking years ago, not eighty.