MI-10: Target Insyght: Marlinga +4

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/macombdaily/status/1533505569323200512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

Carl Marlinga (D) 44%
John James (R) 40%

[Politician]

Yeah, sure. Marlinga is totally winning by 4 in a R+9 national environment in a district Biden lost by 1.

[Matty]

I see the sh**tty house polls are crawling back out from under their rocks

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I swear to God, they are just making numbers up at this point

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah, sure. Marlinga is totally winning by 4 in a R+9 national environment in a district Biden lost by 1.

R+9 national environment? Cherry pick a poll or did you pull that number out your ***?

[Politician]

Yeah, sure. Marlinga is totally winning by 4 in a R+9 national environment in a district Biden lost by 1.

R+9 national environment? Cherry pick a poll or did you pull that number out your ***?

Woah, slow down there bucko! There's no need to get this emotional over a discussion about House elections, of all things. Anyway, Democracy Institute had R+9, and Rasmussen had R+8, and given that polls usually underestimate Republicans, it's a reasonable estimate.

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah, sure. Marlinga is totally winning by 4 in a R+9 national environment in a district Biden lost by 1.

R+9 national environment? Cherry pick a poll or did you pull that number out your ***?

Woah, slow down there bucko! There's no need to get this emotional over a discussion about House elections, of all things. Anyway, Democracy Institute had R+9, and Rasmussen had R+8, and given that polls usually underestimate Republicans, it's a reasonable estimate.

So cherry picking polls then. FWIW the RCP and 538 averages have the GCB at about R+2.

BTW not emotional, just pointing out facts.

[Politician]

Yeah, sure. Marlinga is totally winning by 4 in a R+9 national environment in a district Biden lost by 1.

R+9 national environment? Cherry pick a poll or did you pull that number out your ***?

Woah, slow down there bucko! There's no need to get this emotional over a discussion about House elections, of all things. Anyway, Democracy Institute had R+9, and Rasmussen had R+8, and given that polls usually underestimate Republicans, it's a reasonable estimate.

So cherry picking polls then. FWIW the RCP and 538 averages have the GCB at about R+2.

BTW not emotional, just pointing out facts.

In 2010 and 2014, the generic ballot was actually more favorable to Democrats at this point. And we all know what happened after that...

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah, sure. Marlinga is totally winning by 4 in a R+9 national environment in a district Biden lost by 1.

R+9 national environment? Cherry pick a poll or did you pull that number out your ***?

Woah, slow down there bucko! There's no need to get this emotional over a discussion about House elections, of all things. Anyway, Democracy Institute had R+9, and Rasmussen had R+8, and given that polls usually underestimate Republicans, it's a reasonable estimate.

So cherry picking polls then. FWIW the RCP and 538 averages have the GCB at about R+2.

BTW not emotional, just pointing out facts.

In 2010 and 2014, the generic ballot was actually more favorable to Democrats at this point. And we all know what happened after that...

Because every Democratic midterm is guaranteed to be like 2010 and 2014? Lets let the cycle develop before we carve the results in stone.

[Politician]

Yeah, sure. Marlinga is totally winning by 4 in a R+9 national environment in a district Biden lost by 1.

R+9 national environment? Cherry pick a poll or did you pull that number out your ***?

Woah, slow down there bucko! There's no need to get this emotional over a discussion about House elections, of all things. Anyway, Democracy Institute had R+9, and Rasmussen had R+8, and given that polls usually underestimate Republicans, it's a reasonable estimate.

So cherry picking polls then. FWIW the RCP and 538 averages have the GCB at about R+2.

BTW not emotional, just pointing out facts.

In 2010 and 2014, the generic ballot was actually more favorable to Democrats at this point. And we all know what happened after that...

Because every Democratic midterm is guaranteed to be like 2010 and 2014? Lets let the cycle develop before we carve the results in stone.

Midterms usually result in the party in power losing seats, especially with a president as unpopular as Biden right now.

2002 was the exception, not the rule, and that was because of the "rally around the flag" effect after 9/11.

[S019]

Even if Democrats outperform expectations this fall, this district will still likely fall. I suspect undecideds are Republican leaning here and this is the type of place where Democrats are not well positioned long term.

[wesmoorenerd]

Yeah, sure. Marlinga is totally winning by 4 in a R+9 national environment in a district Biden lost by 1.

R+9 national environment? Cherry pick a poll or did you pull that number out your ***?

Woah, slow down there bucko! There's no need to get this emotional over a discussion about House elections, of all things. Anyway, Democracy Institute had R+9, and Rasmussen had R+8, and given that polls usually underestimate Republicans, it's a reasonable estimate.

My dude you did not just say "polls usually underestimate Republicans" one clause after citing Rasmussen lmao

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I don't see what the weird thing is. It's entirely possible Marlinga gets 44% of the vote.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Yeah, sure. Marlinga is totally winning by 4 in a R+9 national environment in a district Biden lost by 1.

R+9 national environment? Cherry pick a poll or did you pull that number out your ***?

Woah, slow down there bucko! There's no need to get this emotional over a discussion about House elections, of all things. Anyway, Democracy Institute had R+9, and Rasmussen had R+8, and given that polls usually underestimate Republicans, it's a reasonable estimate.

That was an overreaction on your part.

[RI]

This is a Marlinga internal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R Nominee for Gov in MI has collapse so it's no wonder why MI  is Lean D anyways