dazzleman
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Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59
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« on: June 28, 2004, 09:07:59 AM » |
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I don't remember specific polls, but I remember a pretty clear sense during that election year that Reagan would win, and win big.
Gary Hart may have put up a better fight against Reagan than Mondale did, but the usual gaggle of Democratic interests - unions, women's groups, etc. - got behind Mondale very early in the process.
Once it was clear that the Democrats were going to nominate an old-line liberal, and a Carter retread to boot, it was generally considered Reagan's election to lose.
The economy was doing well that year, and Reagan was quite popular for his role in rebuilding American confidence.
The biggest doubt about Reagan revolved around his age. The only time Reagan's victory was truly in doubt was after his shaky performance in his first debate with Mondale in October. Many people were concerned about how poorly he did in that debate, and whether he was "losing it." But he came back in the second debate.
That year, many people had simply made up their minds early on to vote for Reagan, regardless of anything that the Democrats did.
An interesting phenomenon that year, which also happened in 1972, was the appearance of huge and enthusiastic crowds for the Democratic nominees as the campaign wound down. It was kind of eerie to see these huge crowds cheering on the people that the polls said were the sure losers. It's almost as if their supporters knew they would lose, but wanted to defy the polls and make a point.
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