1984 predictions?
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  1984 predictions?
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WalterMitty
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« on: June 25, 2004, 09:35:21 PM »

on election day 1984, what were the pundits and poltical observers predicting?

everyone knew reagan was going to win handily, but did they know the blowout was going to be that massive?  were some people predicting a 50 state sweep?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2004, 09:46:27 PM »

mondale should have been able to do this by default:

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2004, 09:53:29 PM »

I had him losing Minnesota, but winning Rhode Island and Massachusetts.  

By 10 PM, I was rooting for a Reagan sweep.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2004, 10:01:32 PM »

mondale > kerry.

yet, kerry actually has a shot at winning.  i dont understand.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2004, 10:42:36 PM »

I had him losing Minnesota, but winning Rhode Island and Massachusetts.  

By 10 PM, I was rooting for a Reagan sweep.

Who knows...maybe Mondale himself was rooting for it, too? I don't think anyone could have imagined Reagan coming THAT close to winning every state. I mean it was just a couple thousand votes that made up the difference in MN.
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ATFFL
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2004, 11:58:15 PM »

Reagan never campaigned in Minnesota, planned only one stop.  It was canceled due to trouble with AF1.

He makes that stop, he may have gotten his sweep.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2004, 01:14:38 AM »

Geraldine Ferraro was on the boob tube the other day saying she was glad Reagan one and by the end of the night she was happy for him!?!? It made no sense at all. The way she made it sound they knew they never had a shot at winning.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2004, 01:17:39 AM »

I think both Mondale and Ferraro knew that their campaign would not end in victory. Did they predict they'd lose almost every state, I doubt it but I think they knew it would be a pretty one-sided election.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2004, 01:57:21 AM »

I think both Mondale and Ferraro knew that their campaign would not end in victory. Did they predict they'd lose almost every state, I doubt it but I think they knew it would be a pretty one-sided election.

After the conventions they knew it was all over but the vote counting.  

But after the primaries Mondale had a double digit lead and the media was talking about President Mondale.  A few months later the economic recovery had hit, everything went Reagan's way and the situation was completely reversed.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2004, 02:04:56 AM »

Yeah speaking of double digit leads, how about Dukakis in August of '88? He had a 17 pt. lead of Bush Sr. and lost in a landslide. It seems like whenever a GOP landslide is about to happen, the Democratic nominee has a great position in the polls during the summer months (ex: Mondale and Dukakis) Could this year have a similar result? We shall see...
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StatesRights
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« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2004, 02:08:39 AM »

I think both Mondale and Ferraro knew that their campaign would not end in victory. Did they predict they'd lose almost every state, I doubt it but I think they knew it would be a pretty one-sided election.

After the conventions they knew it was all over but the vote counting.  

But after the primaries Mondale had a double digit lead and the media was talking about President Mondale.  A few months later the economic recovery had hit, everything went Reagan's way and the situation was completely reversed.

I still predict a Bush semi-landslide. To h**l with the polls in June!
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Nym90
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2004, 10:47:17 PM »

I think both Mondale and Ferraro knew that their campaign would not end in victory. Did they predict they'd lose almost every state, I doubt it but I think they knew it would be a pretty one-sided election.

After the conventions they knew it was all over but the vote counting.  

But after the primaries Mondale had a double digit lead and the media was talking about President Mondale.  A few months later the economic recovery had hit, everything went Reagan's way and the situation was completely reversed.

Mondale never was ahead of Reagan at all, much less double digits, in any Gallup polls in the entire year of 1984. Which poll had Mondale ahead by double digits after the primary?
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Bandit3 the Worker
bandit73
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« Reply #12 on: June 27, 2004, 11:29:54 PM »

Yeah speaking of double digit leads, how about Dukakis in August of '88? He had a 17 pt. lead of Bush Sr. and lost in a landslide.

The media just had to ruin that one, didn't they?

And people say the media has a liberal bias.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2004, 09:07:59 AM »

I don't remember specific polls, but I remember a pretty clear sense during that election year that Reagan would win, and win big.

Gary Hart may have put up a better fight against Reagan than Mondale did, but the usual gaggle of Democratic interests - unions, women's groups, etc. - got behind Mondale very early in the process.

Once it was clear that the Democrats were going to nominate an old-line liberal, and a Carter retread to boot, it was generally considered Reagan's election to lose.

The economy was doing well that year, and Reagan was quite popular for his role in rebuilding American confidence.

The biggest doubt about Reagan revolved around his age.  The only time Reagan's victory was truly in doubt was after his shaky performance in his first debate with Mondale in October.  Many people were concerned about how poorly he did in that debate, and whether he was "losing it."  But he came back in the second debate.

That year, many people had simply made up their minds early on to vote for Reagan, regardless of anything that the Democrats did.

An interesting phenomenon that year, which also happened in 1972, was the appearance of huge and enthusiastic crowds for the Democratic nominees as the campaign wound down.  It was kind of eerie to see these huge crowds cheering on the people that the polls said were the sure losers.  It's almost as if their supporters knew they would lose, but wanted to defy the polls and make a point.
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