How Blue will Georgia become?

[Senator Golden]

Georgia seems to be trending Dem very rapidly. How much bluer can it become and when will it max out for the Dems? Can the Dems flip more suburban Atlanta counties such as Forsyth and Cherokee as well as Houston and Lowndes? Seems like there is just soo much room for the Dems to grow in GA.

[Skill and Chance]

I agree the Dem ceiling is very high.  IMO its going to be "South Maryland" by the 2030's with just a rump rural R base and Dems routinely clearing 60% in presidential elections.  The demographic trends are even more of a slam dunk than VA 2008-2020, and the Dem base more committed than the VA Dem base.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm going to go against the grain and say I'm not sure. I think Republicans could snag it back by gaining with minorities but the college white vote could get bluer too

[Person Man]

It isn’t getting any redder anytime soon.

[Cassandra]

I'm going to go against the grain and say I'm not sure. I think Republicans could snag it back by gaining with minorities but the college white vote could get bluer too

This is the wild card. If the Republican strategy to target minority voters pays off, Georgia will be more in play than it "should be" this decade.

[Agonized-Statism]

Obviously it's going the way of Virginia in the long run, but could Democrats lose 2024 while still winning Georgia?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obviously it's going the way of Virginia in the long run, but could Democrats lose 2024 while still winning Georgia?

Funny enough, aside from 1840, the Democrat has always won Georgia whenever an incumbent is defeated regardless of whether the Democrat wins or not.

[Sir Mohamed]

Obviously it's going the way of Virginia in the long run, but could Democrats lose 2024 while still winning Georgia?

Depends on how trends continue and which coalitions form.

Tbh, most likely map for this scenario is this:



You could also switch MI and PA, especially with Biden as Dem nominee. NV could go either way and wouldn't make a difference in the final outcome.

[Skill and Chance]

Obviously it's going the way of Virginia in the long run, but could Democrats lose 2024 while still winning Georgia?

Sure.

I'm not into the Emerging Democratic Majority stuff writ large, but GA is the one place where the math unambiguously works and the Hispanic vote eventually breaking GOP isn't sufficient to change the outcome.

[seskoog]

I see Georgia voting like Virginia does now (about 7-8 points to the left of the national popular vote)

[Chips]

I'm going to go against the grain and say I'm not sure. I think Republicans could snag it back by gaining with minorities but the college white vote could get bluer too

Yeah. Depending on just how coalitions shift, it's possible Georgia could be solidly blue by 2028 or could be in play for 3 or 4 more cycles.

[Person Man]

I'm going to go against the grain and say I'm not sure. I think Republicans could snag it back by gaining with minorities but the college white vote could get bluer too

Yeah. Depending on just how coalitions shift, it's possible Georgia could be solidly blue by 2028 or could be in play for 3 or 4 more cycles.

I certainly don’t think that Democrats are going to let Georgia become the next Florida, where a red state becomes competitive only for Republicans to win back or at least not unless they really aren’t winning anymore or found a way to compete in Ohio again.

[lfromnj]

I agree the Dem ceiling is very high.  IMO its going to be "South Maryland" by the 2030's with just a rump rural R base and Dems routinely clearing 60% in presidential elections.  The demographic trends are even more of a slam dunk than VA 2008-2020, and the Dem base more committed than the VA Dem base.

I think Illinois is a better bet than Maryland.   Its more directly comparable as well. The Dem base is bimodal in Maryland while Illinois it is based around Chicago just like Georgia is Atlanta. Lastly Maryland in 2020 had really no super red areas outside of Garret County while Illlinois has pretty red rural counties similar to Georgia.

[patzer]

I agree the Dem ceiling is very high.  IMO its going to be "South Maryland" by the 2030's with just a rump rural R base and Dems routinely clearing 60% in presidential elections.  The demographic trends are even more of a slam dunk than VA 2008-2020, and the Dem base more committed than the VA Dem base.

If this happens, enough migration etc to cause the state become solid Dem, I believe it'll be the first ever example of a US safe state whose governing party is predominantly composed of black people. This is potentially interesting, as in this scenario, it's possible you'll see self-reinforcing trends. State government passes stuff like policing reform, rural white R voters get increasingly disillusioned and move to other states like Florida, potentially causing Republican support to drop even in rural areas of the state, whilst black people elsewhere (e.g. in Alabama) find Georgia an increasingly favourable place to move to. Which could make such a Dem trend in the state even more pronounced.

There's never really been major amounts of white flight on a state level rather than on a city level before, as far as I know, but in theory there's no reason why it couldn't happen, especially given increasing polarization.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think this is a very big open question.  I'm generally of the mindset that projecting current trends isn't infallible and that trends are only temporary.  The two big questions for Georgia are whether upper-middle class white voters in the Atlanta suburbs continue to drift left and whether Republicans make significant inroads in the black vote.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think this is a very big open question.  I'm generally of the mindset that projecting current trends isn't infallible and that trends are only temporary.  The two big questions for Georgia are whether upper-middle class white voters in the Atlanta suburbs continue to drift left and whether Republicans make significant inroads in the black vote.

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437

Cobb County :

2012: Romney 55.25%
2020: Trump 42.02%

Forsyth County:

2012: Romney 80.47%
2020: Trump 65.83%

Gwinnett County:

2012: Romney 53.76%
2020: Trump 40.16%

Henry County:

2012: Romney 51.1%
2020: Trump 39.24%

[Skill and Chance]

I agree the Dem ceiling is very high.  IMO its going to be "South Maryland" by the 2030's with just a rump rural R base and Dems routinely clearing 60% in presidential elections.  The demographic trends are even more of a slam dunk than VA 2008-2020, and the Dem base more committed than the VA Dem base.

If this happens, enough migration etc to cause the state become solid Dem, I believe it'll be the first ever example of a US safe state whose governing party is predominantly composed of black people. This is potentially interesting, as in this scenario, it's possible you'll see self-reinforcing trends. State government passes stuff like policing reform, rural white R voters get increasingly disillusioned and move to other states like Florida, potentially causing Republican support to drop even in rural areas of the state, whilst black people elsewhere (e.g. in Alabama) find Georgia an increasingly favourable place to move to. Which could make such a Dem trend in the state even more pronounced.

There's never really been major amounts of white flight on a state level rather than on a city level before, as far as I know, but in theory there's no reason why it couldn't happen, especially given increasing polarization.

Broadly, yes.  In the scenario where GA politics diverges dramatically from the rest of the South (maybe MS goes the same way as GA eventually?), it's reasonable to wonder whether Georgia would eventually become a plurality black state by midcentury.

Trying to imagine what the political coalitions would look like in such a scenario...

 

[Person Man]

I agree the Dem ceiling is very high.  IMO its going to be "South Maryland" by the 2030's with just a rump rural R base and Dems routinely clearing 60% in presidential elections.  The demographic trends are even more of a slam dunk than VA 2008-2020, and the Dem base more committed than the VA Dem base.

If this happens, enough migration etc to cause the state become solid Dem, I believe it'll be the first ever example of a US safe state whose governing party is predominantly composed of black people. This is potentially interesting, as in this scenario, it's possible you'll see self-reinforcing trends. State government passes stuff like policing reform, rural white R voters get increasingly disillusioned and move to other states like Florida, potentially causing Republican support to drop even in rural areas of the state, whilst black people elsewhere (e.g. in Alabama) find Georgia an increasingly favourable place to move to. Which could make such a Dem trend in the state even more pronounced.

There's never really been major amounts of white flight on a state level rather than on a city level before, as far as I know, but in theory there's no reason why it couldn't happen, especially given increasing polarization.

Broadly, yes.  In the scenario where GA politics diverges dramatically from the rest of the South (maybe MS goes the same way as GA eventually?), it's reasonable to wonder whether Georgia would eventually become a plurality black state by midcentury.

Trying to imagine what the political coalitions would look like in such a scenario...

 

Do you think Georgia becoming liberal will make other states more conservative?

[MarkD]

Georgia isn't going to become blue, it's going to stay purple.

[Skill and Chance]

I agree the Dem ceiling is very high.  IMO its going to be "South Maryland" by the 2030's with just a rump rural R base and Dems routinely clearing 60% in presidential elections.  The demographic trends are even more of a slam dunk than VA 2008-2020, and the Dem base more committed than the VA Dem base.

If this happens, enough migration etc to cause the state become solid Dem, I believe it'll be the first ever example of a US safe state whose governing party is predominantly composed of black people. This is potentially interesting, as in this scenario, it's possible you'll see self-reinforcing trends. State government passes stuff like policing reform, rural white R voters get increasingly disillusioned and move to other states like Florida, potentially causing Republican support to drop even in rural areas of the state, whilst black people elsewhere (e.g. in Alabama) find Georgia an increasingly favourable place to move to. Which could make such a Dem trend in the state even more pronounced.

There's never really been major amounts of white flight on a state level rather than on a city level before, as far as I know, but in theory there's no reason why it couldn't happen, especially given increasing polarization.

Broadly, yes.  In the scenario where GA politics diverges dramatically from the rest of the South (maybe MS goes the same way as GA eventually?), it's reasonable to wonder whether Georgia would eventually become a plurality black state by midcentury.

Trying to imagine what the political coalitions would look like in such a scenario...

 

Do you think Georgia becoming liberal will make other states more conservative?

Well, in theory there would be some geographic sorting.  At a minimum, I would expect a >60% Dem Georgia makes South Carolina more conservative than it would otherwise be, because Savannah and Augusta are meaningful metros where people can reasonably move across the river to suit their preferences.  There would also be some sorting of GA mountain conservatives into Upstate SC, along with the Chattanooga area of TN, but the numbers might not be as significant.  Ultimately, there's an upper limit to this because Atlanta is centrally located and isn't really commutable from out-of-state.

Similarly, if one of LA or MS decisively flips, I expect the other will quickly get more conservative. 

[TDAS04]

Georgia isn't going to become blue, it's going to stay purple.

But it could be blue-violet.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I agree the Dem ceiling is very high.  IMO its going to be "South Maryland" by the 2030's with just a rump rural R base and Dems routinely clearing 60% in presidential elections.  The demographic trends are even more of a slam dunk than VA 2008-2020, and the Dem base more committed than the VA Dem base.

If this happens, enough migration etc to cause the state become solid Dem, I believe it'll be the first ever example of a US safe state whose governing party is predominantly composed of black people. This is potentially interesting, as in this scenario, it's possible you'll see self-reinforcing trends. State government passes stuff like policing reform, rural white R voters get increasingly disillusioned and move to other states like Florida, potentially causing Republican support to drop even in rural areas of the state, whilst black people elsewhere (e.g. in Alabama) find Georgia an increasingly favourable place to move to. Which could make such a Dem trend in the state even more pronounced.

There's never really been major amounts of white flight on a state level rather than on a city level before, as far as I know, but in theory there's no reason why it couldn't happen, especially given increasing polarization.

Broadly, yes.  In the scenario where GA politics diverges dramatically from the rest of the South (maybe MS goes the same way as GA eventually?), it's reasonable to wonder whether Georgia would eventually become a plurality black state by midcentury.

Trying to imagine what the political coalitions would look like in such a scenario...

 

Do you think Georgia becoming liberal will make other states more conservative?

Well, in theory there would be some geographic sorting.  At a minimum, I would expect a >60% Dem Georgia makes South Carolina more conservative than it would otherwise be, because Savannah and Augusta are meaningful metros where people can reasonably move across the river to suit their preferences.  There would also be some sorting of GA mountain conservatives into Upstate SC, along with the Chattanooga area of TN, but the numbers might not be as significant.  Ultimately, there's an upper limit to this because Atlanta is centrally located and isn't really commutable from out-of-state.

Similarly, if one of LA or MS decisively flips, I expect the other will quickly get more conservative. 

There's a question of how much the average person cares about politics in determining where to live.  I think it matters somewhat (sometimes really that other preferences are correlated with politics), but there's also the factor that Georgia seems to still be in the public consciousness as a red state.  There was a thread posted here a while back that had polling data of both Republicans and Democrats ranking the states.  Georgia had a much more favorable rating from Republicans than from Democrats, suggesting that Americans still think of Georgia as a "conservative Southern state".  That perception would take time to change, even if it starts to vote Democratic more consistently.  And, as long as that perception is in place, conservatives aren't going to avoid Georgia like they might want to avoid California or Massachusetts.

[Skill and Chance]

I agree the Dem ceiling is very high.  IMO its going to be "South Maryland" by the 2030's with just a rump rural R base and Dems routinely clearing 60% in presidential elections.  The demographic trends are even more of a slam dunk than VA 2008-2020, and the Dem base more committed than the VA Dem base.

If this happens, enough migration etc to cause the state become solid Dem, I believe it'll be the first ever example of a US safe state whose governing party is predominantly composed of black people. This is potentially interesting, as in this scenario, it's possible you'll see self-reinforcing trends. State government passes stuff like policing reform, rural white R voters get increasingly disillusioned and move to other states like Florida, potentially causing Republican support to drop even in rural areas of the state, whilst black people elsewhere (e.g. in Alabama) find Georgia an increasingly favourable place to move to. Which could make such a Dem trend in the state even more pronounced.

There's never really been major amounts of white flight on a state level rather than on a city level before, as far as I know, but in theory there's no reason why it couldn't happen, especially given increasing polarization.

Broadly, yes.  In the scenario where GA politics diverges dramatically from the rest of the South (maybe MS goes the same way as GA eventually?), it's reasonable to wonder whether Georgia would eventually become a plurality black state by midcentury.

Trying to imagine what the political coalitions would look like in such a scenario...

 

Do you think Georgia becoming liberal will make other states more conservative?

Well, in theory there would be some geographic sorting.  At a minimum, I would expect a >60% Dem Georgia makes South Carolina more conservative than it would otherwise be, because Savannah and Augusta are meaningful metros where people can reasonably move across the river to suit their preferences.  There would also be some sorting of GA mountain conservatives into Upstate SC, along with the Chattanooga area of TN, but the numbers might not be as significant.  Ultimately, there's an upper limit to this because Atlanta is centrally located and isn't really commutable from out-of-state.

Similarly, if one of LA or MS decisively flips, I expect the other will quickly get more conservative. 

There's a question of how much the average person cares about politics in determining where to live.  I think it matters somewhat (sometimes really that other preferences are correlated with politics), but there's also the factor that Georgia seems to still be in the public consciousness as a red state.  There was a thread posted here a while back that had polling data of both Republicans and Democrats ranking the states.  Georgia had a much more favorable rating from Republicans than from Democrats, suggesting that Americans still think of Georgia as a "conservative Southern state".  That perception would take time to change, even if it starts to vote Democratic more consistently.  And, as long as that perception is in place, conservatives aren't going to avoid Georgia like they might want to avoid California or Massachusetts.

That's a good point.  Even though I do very much expect the Atlanta metro to eventually vote consistently left of Los Angeles metro, it would take a long time for that to sink in.  People just don't think of Atlanta as being anywhere near as liberal as coastal California.

[Person Man]

I agree the Dem ceiling is very high.  IMO its going to be "South Maryland" by the 2030's with just a rump rural R base and Dems routinely clearing 60% in presidential elections.  The demographic trends are even more of a slam dunk than VA 2008-2020, and the Dem base more committed than the VA Dem base.

If this happens, enough migration etc to cause the state become solid Dem, I believe it'll be the first ever example of a US safe state whose governing party is predominantly composed of black people. This is potentially interesting, as in this scenario, it's possible you'll see self-reinforcing trends. State government passes stuff like policing reform, rural white R voters get increasingly disillusioned and move to other states like Florida, potentially causing Republican support to drop even in rural areas of the state, whilst black people elsewhere (e.g. in Alabama) find Georgia an increasingly favourable place to move to. Which could make such a Dem trend in the state even more pronounced.

There's never really been major amounts of white flight on a state level rather than on a city level before, as far as I know, but in theory there's no reason why it couldn't happen, especially given increasing polarization.

Broadly, yes.  In the scenario where GA politics diverges dramatically from the rest of the South (maybe MS goes the same way as GA eventually?), it's reasonable to wonder whether Georgia would eventually become a plurality black state by midcentury.

Trying to imagine what the political coalitions would look like in such a scenario...

 

Do you think Georgia becoming liberal will make other states more conservative?

Well, in theory there would be some geographic sorting.  At a minimum, I would expect a >60% Dem Georgia makes South Carolina more conservative than it would otherwise be, because Savannah and Augusta are meaningful metros where people can reasonably move across the river to suit their preferences.  There would also be some sorting of GA mountain conservatives into Upstate SC, along with the Chattanooga area of TN, but the numbers might not be as significant.  Ultimately, there's an upper limit to this because Atlanta is centrally located and isn't really commutable from out-of-state.

Similarly, if one of LA or MS decisively flips, I expect the other will quickly get more conservative. 

There's a question of how much the average person cares about politics in determining where to live.  I think it matters somewhat (sometimes really that other preferences are correlated with politics), but there's also the factor that Georgia seems to still be in the public consciousness as a red state.  There was a thread posted here a while back that had polling data of both Republicans and Democrats ranking the states.  Georgia had a much more favorable rating from Republicans than from Democrats, suggesting that Americans still think of Georgia as a "conservative Southern state".  That perception would take time to change, even if it starts to vote Democratic more consistently.  And, as long as that perception is in place, conservatives aren't going to avoid Georgia like they might want to avoid California or Massachusetts.

That's a good point.  Even though I do very much expect the Atlanta metro to eventually vote consistently left of Los Angeles metro, it would take a long time for that to sink in.  People just don't think of Atlanta as being anywhere near as liberal as coastal California.

Even until 2016, many people still considered Colorado a "Republican State" and Missouri a swing state.

[Sol]

I don't think state level white flight makes much sense--more likely in a Democratic Georgia scenario imo is something like Oregon where there's persistent low-level violence and attacks from the political outgroup.