Why, in general, do Republican waves form later than dem waves?

[Matty]

By mid 2017, it was clear that 2018 would be a house dem wave

2005 you could also tell 2006 would be dem wave

Yet….2010 and 2014….the polling wasn’t clear until the summer of that year’s election

Why?

[Utah Neolib]

The lag glitch was patched in the 2021 update.

[Vosem]

I think all you're noticing is that 2018 formed unusually early. It wasn't really clear until early fall or so that 2006 and 2008 would be Democratic waves, as opposed to just Leans D years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol it's not gonna be an R wave it's a neutral cycle 303 map like it has always been

Biden isn't at 42% he is somewhere between 47/48%

[Del Tachi]

The "bias" is that Democrat-aligned media and election pollsters are always slower to accept fundamentals/polling that's more unfavorable to the Ds than the GOP. 

[Xing]

I think that the reality of 2018 and 2022 set in around the same point in the cycle. I think it was pretty clear by the later half of 2021 that 2022 would be a bad year for Democrats, and there were plenty of takes throughout much of 2017 that 2018 would be an "atypical" midterm, and that Republicans could get near 60 seats in the Senate and the House would be nearly impossible for Democrats to take.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

It certainly didn't form later for 2022. I knew Republicans would have a red wave less than a month into Biden's presidency, and it became obvious for even the most D-biased observers by Afghanistan.

[Pericles]

2010 and 1994 can be explained by the new President having a honeymoon period which second term W Bush and Trump did not get. 2014 breaking late is weird though-maybe the government shutdown delayed the surge in Republican support?

[Skill and Chance]

It certainly didn't form later for 2022. I knew Republicans would have a red wave less than a month into Biden's presidency, and it became obvious for even the most D-biased observers by Afghanistan.

IDK through mid-summer 2021, it was looking pretty good for Biden.  I also think a lot of people went into early 2021 expecting we would be having an explicit "victory over COVID" celebration by spring/summer.  When that didn't happen and some restrictions came back in August, Biden lost a lot of momentum. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think that the reality of 2018 and 2022 set in around the same point in the cycle. I think it was pretty clear by the later half of 2021 that 2022 would be a bad year for Democrats, and there were plenty of takes throughout much of 2017 that 2018 would be an "atypical" midterm, and that Republicans could get near 60 seats in the Senate and the House would be nearly impossible for Democrats to take.

Yah people forget that Osoff underperformed Clinton in the GA-6 special and the narrative at the time was while Trump was unpopular the Democrats were even more unpopular and due to that reason it would be hard for them to win in 2018. It was not until the Virginia 2017 results that people really started to believe that 2018 would be a wave year which btw was around the same time in this cycle people started to believe 2022 would be a wave.


As for the others I do not really think 1994/2010 were as late breaking as people think. The Democrats got decimated all throughout 1993 in the off year elections and special elections which clearly foreshadowed 1994 but given that Democrats had held the house for 40 years at the time nobody really could believe it was possible for the House to ever flip which is why it was such a surprise even though it should not have been. As for 2010, the Dems lost badly in the 2009 off year elections and the MA special in Jan 2010 so I dont think it can be called late breaking either.


2014 was late breaking cause the government shutdown made the GOP more unpopular in late 2013

[Smash255]

By mid 2017, it was clear that 2018 would be a house dem wave

2005 you could also tell 2006 would be dem wave

Yet….2010 and 2014….the polling wasn’t clear until the summer of that year’s election

Why?

Presidential approvals and when they started to decline likely have played a big factor.  The bad years for the GOP, 2006 & 2018, the Presidential approval issues hit earlier into the cycle than in the bad years for Democrats such as 2010, 2014 and likely this year


  As we got further into 2005, Bush's #'s started to decline as Iraq fatigue started to set in, and add in the debacle that was Katrina and the stage was already set for 2006.

Going into 2010, Obama's #'s were never really all that poor, though it did dip as the year went on.   Earlier in the cycle it was also a bit harder to zone in on any turnout differences.   

Heading into 2014 his #'s were a bit worse, but it was still considerably better than where Bush was at a similar point in his Presidency. 

Trump's #'s were really never good from the start and he was below 40 for a good chunk of the 2nd half of 2017, in fact his low point in his Presidency was in December of 2017

In the later half of 2021 it looked more and more likely that this would be a tough year for Democrats, however it has certainly become more apparent with inflation spiking the last couple months.   In addition Biden's #'s have only recently been on par with Trump's during a similar time in his Presidency, something that wasn't the case last year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gonna be an R wave the Rs haven't won a Natl race since 2016 with third party spoiler Johnson a D the PVI in 2014 they lost 2006/08/12)18/20 nothing to brag about look at the NV poll every R said Lombardo will be next Gov, NO

I have been proven right about a blue wave R have used the Filibuster to cheat and obstruction of Voti g rights, but D's are winning anyways

McConnell haven't been saying much about an inevitable R takeover either like he was in Jan when Rs block Voting Rights I told you black and brown and single person are underpolling, they get married White people I did those polls in college

I hope Murkowski loses to D Pat she obstructed Voting Rights too