Will Basque/Catalonia ever become independent?

[TheReckoning]

Will either Basque Country or Catalonia ever become independent in your view?

[CumbrianLefty]

Again, the use of "ever" only permits one logical choice.

Why not something like "in the next 50 years" instead?

[TheReckoning]

Again, the use of "ever" only permits one logical choice.

Not really. Just because something “can” happen, doesn’t mean it has to happen, even given an infinite amount of time.

[PSOL]

No

[Santander]

Again, the use of "ever" only permits one logical choice.

Why not something like "in the next 50 years" instead?

Despite the resilience of Basque and Catalan culture, the possibility for assimilation grows on an long-term timeline along with the possibility for independence. Neither is inevitable.

[brucejoel99]

In the long-term, it's rather likely, but only if European integration continues to advance to the point that the EU itself is eventually transformed from a confederated union of sovereign states into a single federal state with a central government consisting of a number of partially self-governing federated states. If such pan-European actions eventually forge a politically pan-European identity, then I imagine that you could see many culturally separatist regions be permitted to just cut the middleman out & become a state of Europe. Granted, by then, "independence" (from Spain) would just amount to an autonomous governmental reorganization instead of a major event that produces an independent sovereign state, but still.

[Velasco]

Maybe within the next decades, but it will depend on the European context (currently it's unfavorable). But who knows, maybe socioecononic developments will render nation-states meaningless by the end of this century. Hard to predict.

Separatist feelings won't easily fade away in Catalonia, that's for sure - the younger generations have been fed with it. i remember some statements from Spanish historian Julián Casanova in September 2017, a high point in the Catalan conflict. He had rhe feeling Catalan independence was inevitable, for a number of reasons. "In the end, when conclusions have to be drawn, someone will have to explain why a process that was not unstoppable became unstoppable"

[mileslunn]

I think no for simple reason if they separate, no guarantee they become EU members and good chance Spain would veto membership in EU.  Being independent as an EU member is viable but being independent and outside EU is not.

[Ethelberth]

1985, Nobody assumed that the number of UEFA member countries shall be 50 (instead of 35) in 6 years.

[Former President tack50]

Again, the use of "ever" only permits one logical choice.

Why not something like "in the next 50 years" instead?

Despite the resilience of Basque and Catalan culture, the possibility for assimilation grows on an long-term timeline along with the possibility for independence. Neither is inevitable.

I voted yes on the poll because "ever" is a long time even if I don't think independence is even remotely likely on any reasonable timeframe. But the "assimilation" hypothesis is way, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay unlikelier than the independence one. Even in the adyacent regions of Navarra, Valencia or the Balearics you can clearly see that Spanish sentiment is clearly on the decline. Galician nationalism is also on the rise, given BNG became official opposition last time around.

I cannot even think meanwhile of a region where nationalist sentiment is in the decline and assimilation is increasing. Andalucia would be the closest one though Teresa Rodriguez might give nationalism there at least a small foothold (Andalusian nationalism was never big to begin with). However given PSOE-A's decline (where they enjoyed a "soft nationalist" image kinda like PP in Galicia) maybe Andalusian nationalism truly is going down but it was never big to begin with.

The Canary Islands might qualify as well but CC is being heavily weighed down by pissing off everyone and their horrible record in government (and NCa is irrelevant in the western islands and only is strong in Gran Canaria) so Canarian nationalism is really stagnant, not on decline.

There's also the "demographics are destiny" argument which while discredited in the US (or more relevantly in this case: in Quebec) I still have not seen discredited here just yet and I cannot see how it will be discredited any time soon either. Also why I think Scottish secessionism will not go away any time soon, though Scottish independence is also much more likely as it's just one Labour minority government away.

[CumbrianLefty]

though Scottish independence is also much more likely as it's just one Labour minority government away.

Erm.....this is really *not* how things are most likely to pan out you know.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I don't feel up to making a prediction, but the just outcome would be for the Basque Country to become independent while Catalonia remains part of Spain forever.

[Velasco]

Again, the use of "ever" only permits one logical choice.

Why not something like "in the next 50 years" instead?

Despite the resilience of Basque and Catalan culture, the possibility for assimilation grows on an long-term timeline along with the possibility for independence. Neither is inevitable.

Basque and Catalan cultures are thriving and have legal recognition under the current political regime. The possibility for complete assimilation (to the 'Castilian', or a broader Spanish culture, I guess) is negligible under present circumstances. Another question is whether liberal democracy resists in Spain, or it is replaced in the future by an authoritarian regime that enforces cultural assimilation. I'm not saying that Spain is neccessarily going to evolve towards authoritarianism, even though the far-right is on the rise. Franco banned Basque and Catalan cultures, while enforcing assimilation, but ultimately he failed. It's yet to be seen if the Spanish state could remain as it stands, in the eventuality of an authoritarian involution. Spain is not Hungary, but a government incorporating the nationalist far-right can put Spain on the illiberal path (ironically many self-styled Spanish "liberals" are actually authoritarians, but we know that's not only a Spanish thing). I can imagine Catalonia and Basque Country revolting against a PP-VOX government. Personally I have no interest in knowing how things could evolve in that eventuality, but it's a possible outcome of the 2023 general elections