OH-SEN: Suffolk University: Vance +3

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1531827708249968640

[ꙮ]

I think we all know where most of that 19% undecided is going to go.

[Matty]

I think we all know where most of that 19% undecided is going to go.

idk

ryan much more unknown in ohio

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news, we can win these red states yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyone thinks that Ryan is gonna get blown away were just plain wrong Ryan only winning a few counties, Vance is gonna get shell shocked in the Afro Americans community in Columbus, Cincy and Cleveland

That's why Brown endorsed Ryan, he wants to get reelected 24, we already know DeWine will easily be reelected no bleed of support of Afro Americans

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Pundits may hype this one up, but Ohio polls are the most biased towards Dems in the Midwest. It's pretty obvious where this race is heading, if Vance is even leading the polls, it's not good for Ryan at all.

[S019]

Safe R, yawn

[Minnesota Mike]

Not a fan of Suffolk and it's only one poll but Vance +3 sounds about right. This race is not going to be a blowout, Ryan is a quality candidate, but a comfortable mid single digit Vance win is probably the most likely outcome IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance is gonna run up deficits unlike DeWine I'm the Afro Americans community it's not gonna be a high single digits victory for Vance, Beasley is down by 2 didn't we learn from 2018 that partisan trends aren't that important, than Prez elections because Trump wasn't on the ballot

Brown won in 2018 abd Beshear won in 2019 due to Trump not being on ballot and Elder got shellshocked in the Cali recall Rs did turn out for VA but didn't in Cali Recalled

Election Guy said the samething about Beshear Bevin is gonna beat Beshear and he lost

[ElectionsGuy]

Exactly what I expected.

Vance is going to underperform Trump by 5 in a year where polling is 9 points more favorable to R's compared to 2020. Here's some other things that "high quality" polls will likely show:

 - Barnes/Lasry will lead Johnson in WI
 - Fetterman will lead Oz in PA
 - Kelly will lead R's in AZ
 - R's will continue to hold miniscule 1-2 point lead in generic ballot

By election time, many people will be convinced the Democrats are favorites to hold the Senate and R's will get no more than 230 House seats. And the narrative will be because R's are "too extreme" while Dems all have good moderate candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just read that the Republican arm is targeting OH, NC and PA as D's best pickup opportunity so to say that NC, OH and PA are safe R is HOGWASH

Election Guy, said Bevin was gonna beat Beshear but of course he's not gonna admit he was wrong, Xing never admitted that he was wrong about KY Gov either in 2019

Biden was on the ballot with Obama in 2008/12 that win OH

They say D's are at 303 with CCM, Kelly, Hassan and Warnock narrowly leading by 50/45 and Rs are at 204 that cancels TX, Pelosi has endorsed Crist not Beto and OH and NC as the Tossup states, we don't need red states it's wave insurance for a D H

Beto isn't a serious candidate, we won't win TX unless we have Julian or Jouquin Castro running but they have a Castro name

[SnowLabrador]

Not happening. It will be Vance by double digits.

[Pericles]

So many undecideds-this poll is useless.

[Politician]

So in reality, Vance is probably up by 10.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that Ryan leads on both Independents and voters who know both. But yeah, the amount of undecideds here is insane.

If pollsters don't want egg in their face time after time, then they need to start pushing which way they lean.

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1531949864350887938

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't read all these naysayers comments but it's possible that OH will split their votes for Gov/SEN blacks and Arabs and single female don't like Vance but like DeWine this state split it's votes for Gov/Sen in 2018 DeWine won't bleed black support but Vance will he is more unpopular in the black community as Kenneth Blackwell because he looks like Eric Trump

Vance isn't liked even in IL or Cali by Blks, just like Ed Markey wasn't, Ryan/Joe Kennedy liked by Blk, but Markey got female vote Vance won't get that much, Vance is more unpopular than Trump with blacks in Ohio

[Unelectable Bystander]

What else can you expect when you have such a strong populist candidate against a weak non-populist candidate? Trump’s margin was always inflated since he was such a good fit, especially considering how the majority of Ohioans said that he does NOT have the temperament to be president

[wbrocks67]

Favorables:
Tim Ryan: 40/23 (+17)
JD Vance: 35/38 (-3)

Dems:
Ryan 78%
Vance 4%
Undecided 18%

Reps:
Vance 84%
Ryan 6%
Undecided 9%

--

Ryan does have a few things going for him here - his favs are way better than Vance's, and twice as many Dems are still undecided as GOP, so a bit more room to grow.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What else can you expect when you have such a strong populist candidate against a weak non-populist candidate? Trump’s margin was always inflated since he was such a good fit, especially considering how the majority of Ohioans said that he does NOT have the temperament to be president

User are PROGRAMS on this Election site that it's gonna be a 2010 Election look at the compiled map they don't know what wave insurance means, it means higher than expected Turnout you can change your map if you want when it gets close to the Election if it's not a blue wave but I have had this debate with even D's users on this site, that wave insurance means that you can change your prediction oayer


I bet that it had Vance by 15 or so there would say you know you are right that Biden and the Ds are destined to lose

Like Snowlabrador whom supposed to be a D from Massachusetts he said it's a red wave, Approvals can lie or else Trump would have lost a landslide in 2018/2020 and he netted S seats in 2018 and H seats in 2020, but users keep falling in the same trick bag of thinking Biden is at 42% a poll came out yesterday showing Biden at 52% Approvals I don't think he is that high yet but he's not at 42 it's probably 47/48 and Trump wasn't at 44% he was at 47/48%, but Biden can be above 50 on EDay, wave insurance means EDay not before

[MT Treasurer]

Exactly what I expected.

Vance is going to underperform Trump by 5 in a year where polling is 9 points more favorable to R's compared to 2020. Here's some other things that "high quality" polls will likely show:

 - Barnes/Lasry will lead Johnson in WI
 - Fetterman will lead Oz in PA
 - Kelly will lead R's in AZ
 - R's will continue to hold miniscule 1-2 point lead in generic ballot

By election time, many people will be convinced the Democrats are favorites to hold the Senate and R's will get no more than 230 House seats. And the narrative will be because R's are "too extreme" while Dems all have good moderate candidates.

Like in 2020, I’m expecting polling to show Democrats ahead in virtually all the close/contested races, including in states where it had traditionally not overestimated (and in fact frequently underestimated) their share of the vote, e.g. AZ and NV. Other than maybe NH and GA, it’s hard to think of a state where you might see a pro-R bias in pre-election polling in 2022.

[SnowLabrador]

The polling industry needs to roll over and die.

[Xing]

While polls have not consistently underestimated Republican literally everywhere, they have done so in Ohio recently. Junk it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

While polls have not consistently underestimated Republican literally everywhere, they have done so in Ohio recently. Junk it.
[/quote


Lol are you gonna start that again black and brown and female voters vote too the insurrection was about white voters thinking that the Election was stolen from them, why did they have the Reagan Revolution because Black and Brown voters didn't vote they were content until 1994 with project living

You and Election Guy both said KY was gonna be R with Bevin and Beshear won

[Unelectable Bystander]

While polls have not consistently underestimated Republican literally everywhere, they have done so in Ohio recently. Junk it.
[/quote


Lol are you gonna start that again black and brown and female voters vote too the insurrection was about white voters thinking that the Election was stolen from them, why did they have the Reagan Revolution because Black and Brown voters didn't vote they were content until 1994 with project living

You and Election Guy both said KY was gonna be R with Bevin and Beshear won

OC why aren’t you more bullish on Vance for looking similar to Eric Trump?