A note about biden approvals and midterms

[Matty]

I've seen the argument in here that "biden's approvals aren't a proxy" for midterm margins.

I don't disagree. Nobody is arguing that if he is at -12 on election day, that will translate to GOP+12.

Rarely does that ever happen in US politics.

But at low approvals, what does happen is that you begin to bleed enough support to the point where a +0 midterm starting point becomes -1, then -2, then -3, etc as your ratings drop.

If even 5-10% of biden voters who now disapprove of him switch to the gop for 2022 and/or stay home, that is enough to swing the midterm elections. That's what we saw in 2018 and 2014 and 2010.

tl/dr: nobody is arguing that approvals exactly match margins, but they do generally determine how midterm ends up.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I agree with this and will add even a GOP + 3 environment would prolly spell big trouble for Dems as they'd likely lose both chambers of Congress and a lot of key governorships. The GOP doesn't have to win by much to have significant victories electorally.

I think 2022 will be less about voters actually switching and voting against Dems but Dems being less energized than the GOP.

[Matty]

I agree with this and will add even a GOP + 3 environment would prolly spell big trouble for Dems as they'd likely lose both chambers of Congress and a lot of key governorships. The GOP doesn't have to win by much to have significant victories electorally.

I think 2022 will be less about voters actually switching and voting against Dems but Dems being less energized than the GOP.

Yep. In 2010 and 2014 for example, it wasn’t so much that a bunch of people became repubs, it was that turnout collapsed among dems

2018 is a different story I think. 2018 saw a lot of Trump 2016 voters vote dem.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I've seen the argument in here that "biden's approvals aren't a proxy" for midterm margins.

I don't disagree. Nobody is arguing that if he is at -12 on election day, that will translate to GOP+12.

Rarely does that ever happen in US politics.

But at low approvals, what does happen is that you begin to bleed enough support to the point where a +0 midterm starting point becomes -1, then -2, then -3, etc as your ratings drop.

If even 5-10% of biden voters who now disapprove of him switch to the gop for 2022 and/or stay home, that is enough to swing the midterm elections. That's what we saw in 2018 and 2014 and 2010.

tl/dr: nobody is arguing that approvals exactly match margins, but they do generally determine how midterm ends up.

Stop comparing Biden Approvals to Midterms of 2010/2014 lol you keep doing that Trump netted 2 S Seats in 2018 and netted H seats at 44%  approvals don't you see the State by state polls that have Kelly, Hobbs, CCM and Hassan and Golden 50/45 the GCB is tied or D's plus 2 winning and Golden we haven't seen any WI polls but Fetterman is the fav, it was 88M votes in 2010 it's not a 413 map it's a 303 map and it's 110/125 M votes we lost WI, MI and PA in 2010 because it was 10% unemployment it's 4% unemployment and Trump netted S seats in 2018 due to 4% unemployment too and Trump netted H seats in 2020 because unemployment was trending downward from 9/7%


Trump lost 33 H seats in 2018 due to impeachment on Ukraine

Users don't read polls they just use Biden low Approvals as a proxy and Trump did quite well in red states at 44% Approval

Whitmer is almost certain to win Craig isn't on the ballot and Shapiro and Fetterman are gonna win, that takes us to WI, they haven't given us any polls but Johnson is at 37% Favs not 60% like Oz

[Cyrusman]

I agree with this and will add even a GOP + 3 environment would prolly spell big trouble for Dems as they'd likely lose both chambers of Congress and a lot of key governorships. The GOP doesn't have to win by much to have significant victories electorally.

I think 2022 will be less about voters actually switching and voting against Dems but Dems being less energized than the GOP.

Yep. In 2010 and 2014 for example, it wasn’t so much that a bunch of people became repubs, it was that turnout collapsed among dems

2018 is a different story I think. 2018 saw a lot of Trump 2016 voters vote dem.

Why did many Trump 2016 voters vote Dem?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I agree with this and will add even a GOP + 3 environment would prolly spell big trouble for Dems as they'd likely lose both chambers of Congress and a lot of key governorships. The GOP doesn't have to win by much to have significant victories electorally.

I think 2022 will be less about voters actually switching and voting against Dems but Dems being less energized than the GOP.

Yep. In 2010 and 2014 for example, it wasn’t so much that a bunch of people became repubs, it was that turnout collapsed among dems

2018 is a different story I think. 2018 saw a lot of Trump 2016 voters vote dem.

Why did many Trump 2016 voters vote Dem?

Downballot shifts tend to lag a bit plus there's def a group of Trump voters who still support him but wanted a check on him due to him unique and aggressive style of governoring.

This mainly seemed to be the case in rural communities in which Dems pretty dramatically overperformed the federal baseline in 2016 and 2020, especially in the midwest.

Also Dem incumbents got quite a bit of crossover even in Trump districts and weren't at risk of losding re-election.