Rate CA-27th - Smith v Garcia

[Woody]

Does the Remington poll change your mind?

https://www.termlimits.com/library/CA-27%20Primary%20TABS%20042122.pdf

Primary:

Mike Garcia (R-inc) 44%
Christy Smith (D) 34%
John Quay Quartey (D) 10%

Head-to-head matchups:

Mike Garcia (R-inc) 47%
Christy Smith (D) 45%

Mike Garcia (R-inc) 47%
John Quay Quartey (D) 41%

Favorabilities:

Mike Garcia - 39/26
Christy Smith - 34/23
John Quay Quartey - 17/10

801 likely voters, 3.3% MoE
4/19-4/20

[Xing]

Lean R for 2022, though if Democrats can nominate someone not named Christy Smith, Garcia will be in big trouble in 2024 and beyond, quite possibly DOA.

[Vosem]

Lean R, but honestly closer to Likely. I don't think Garcia is going anywhere until the next Republican midterm, either.

Smith destroying Quartey in the first round like this poll thinks on pure name recognition, even though I distinctly think Quartey has raised and spent more (but not by much), is pretty funny, though.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Lean R, Gas is nearly $6 in that area. I don't think voters are going to be focused on replacing an incumbent Republican, for a karen who is on her third attempt already. Garcia probably wins by 3-5 points.

[brucejoel99]

Pure Toss-up. On-paper, the reason that Smith lost last time was Ventura County: she would've won the new boundaries by ~4K, so now that they're no longer in the district, Smith can beat Garcia. But, it's also a GOP-friendly environment rn, & in light of Garcia's incumbency too, we may as well be back to square one: a very close race decided by a few hundred votes.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Pure Toss-up. On-paper, the reason that Smith lost last time was Ventura County: she would've won the new boundaries by ~4K, so now that they're no longer in the district, Smith can beat Garcia. But, it's also a GOP-friendly environment rn, & in light of Garcia's incumbency too, we may as well be back to square one: a very close race decided by a few hundred votes.

Garcia was seen as a moderate in general in 2020, a benefit he is unlikely to get again due to his votes to decertify the 2020 election. I feel comfortable saying that Smith would be a slight favorite this time.

[DrScholl]

It was really detrimental to Garcia that Simi Valley was removed from the district. The portion of Granada Hills that was added is not exactly Republican friendly and the last Republican on the Los Angeles City Council who represents that area switched to independent. Garcia is in a big trouble because he has even tried to vote like he represents a Biden district.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Tilt R. He'll still be one of the first Republican incumbents to lose, if not the first, but I can't say that Smith is favored when she's lost twice in a district that was only marginally less favorable (and in national environments that will be much more favorable than November will presumably be).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt D. The new seat is like Biden + 13. This might not seem significant on paper, but a big reason he carried the district in 2020 was because of the Simi Valley which is now no longer in the district and his overperformance elsewhere was more "meh". Garcia has been much more hackish than many had thought he would be.

I'm still cofnused about why Christy Smith is particularly bad? Like I get she lost in 2020 and isn't super inspiring, but at the end of the day she just seems like a generic Dem. To me it seems more of her 2020 loss was Garcia running a much better campaign compared to her.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Since Garcia outperformed Biden by a massive amount, I think those crossover voters didn't approve of voting not to certify. So really, Garcia has a 13 point deficit to make up. The swing probably makes up most and ignorance the rest but he's cutting it close.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Going to go on a limb and vote Likely D.
A Biden+13 district is a Biden+13 district. He has to win over many Latinos who will vote for Democrats and other non-Republicans elsewhere (or hope that Latino turnout declines precipitously). He does represent something like 90% or so of the new seat already, so he has that going for him.

[GregTheGreat657]

Garcia is a great candidate as he won (albeit very narrowly) as a Trumpist on the same ballot Biden won this district by roughly 10, so lean R

[ElectionsGuy]

Since Garcia outperformed Biden by a massive amount, I think those crossover voters didn't approve of voting not to certify. So really, Garcia has a 13 point deficit to make up. The swing probably makes up most and ignorance the rest but he's cutting it close.

The idea that the average person cares about this above everything else is why you guys continue to embarrass yourselves. You guys live in a political ecosystem hyper-obsessed with "Trumpism" and "democracy" to the detriment of anything else. Why we arrogantly assume they will think the same way we do, is still dumbfounding.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Safe R.
Likely R for other years

[Woody]

Does the primary results show hope for Garcia later this year?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

We're really doing this again?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Safe R.
Likely R for other years

A Biden + 13 seat is not likely R in a normal year

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Does the primary results show hope for Garcia later this year?

Yes, while not a guarantee for Garcia, repubs outvoting dems in a +12 Biden district is quite positive..

Tilt R, closer to lean than tossup.

[wesmoorenerd]

Since Garcia outperformed Biden by a massive amount, I think those crossover voters didn't approve of voting not to certify. So really, Garcia has a 13 point deficit to make up. The swing probably makes up most and ignorance the rest but he's cutting it close.

The idea that the average person cares about this above everything else is why you guys continue to embarrass yourselves. You guys live in a political ecosystem hyper-obsessed with "Trumpism" and "democracy" to the detriment of anything else. Why we arrogantly assume they will think the same way we do, is still dumbfounding.

>literally named "ElectionsGuy"
>YoU gUyS lIvE iN a PoLiTiCaL eCoSyStEm HyPeR-oBsEsSeD wItH "dEmOcRaCy"

buddy if you want to analyze some non-democratic elections turkmenistan is thataway

[Xing]

Still Lean R, though maybe Smith blowing this race a third time will finally convince Democrats to nominate someone else, which will pretty much doom Garcia in 2024 and beyond.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can someone please explain what makes Smith particularly awful? Obviously she did poorly in 2020 but she seems like a pretty generic D with no real scandals or anything.

I’d argue this race is more about Garcia being strong rather than Smith being weak.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Can someone please explain what makes Smith particularly awful? Obviously she did poorly in 2020 but she seems like a pretty generic D with no real scandals or anything.

I’d argue this race is more about Garcia being strong rather than Smith being weak.

Because as you touched on, if she’s not weak then we have to admit that Garcia had a legendary over-performance and is strong

[Xing]

Can someone please explain what makes Smith particularly awful? Obviously she did poorly in 2020 but she seems like a pretty generic D with no real scandals or anything.

I’d argue this race is more about Garcia being strong rather than Smith being weak.

She has a tendency to make some pretty serious gaffes.

[DrScholl]

The result is not positive for Garcia since this was low turnout election with no real draw for Democrats to turnout. With even half the effort put in for the primary Smith can win this race easily. If anything the numbers are pretty abysmal for Garcia considering the low turnout.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Can someone please explain what makes Smith particularly awful? Obviously she did poorly in 2020 but she seems like a pretty generic D with no real scandals or anything.

I’d argue this race is more about Garcia being strong rather than Smith being weak.

Incredible amounts of gaffes. Embodies the stereotype of the snooty liberal that believes everyone who doesn't agree with them is a stupid asshole. Horrible campaigner who somehow failed her way into a third nomination despite being unwilling to connect with voters last cycle.

Just a complete electoral disaster all around. I hate to bring Twitter drama in but her calling Bernie and his supporters a fundamentally classless movement really foreshadowed the troubles with her candidacy.