A Dean comeback in NH??

[StevenNick]

Zogby tracking polls are compiled using data from three days worth of polling.  Every day a new poll is completed, the poll from three days earlier is dropped off.  

The current Zogby tracking poll of the last three days shows Kerry with 30% and Dean with 23%.  However, these numbers are skewed by a double digit lead Kerry held on Thursday.  On Friday, Kerry had 26% and Dean had 22%.  On Saturday, Kerry had 28% and Dean was polling at 25%.  If that trend continues, New Hampshire could be extremely close.

One factor that could help Howard Dean:  New Hampshire is supposed to be blanketed with a foot of snow on Tuesday.  I would guess that Dean voters are probably more motivated to get to the polls than any of the other candidate's supporters especially because their guy is now the underdog.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Dean come within a point or two of Kerry.  He could even eek out a victory.  After all, New Hampshire voters seem to get some kind of perverse pleasure in knocking off front-runners.

It's all probably wishful thinking on my part, but it could happen, right?

[Nation]

For those of us who still really believe in Dean, I'd like to think you're right, and that it's not just wishful thinking.

[MAS117]

a comeback to 2nd place... his advisors said there is basically no way he can come in 1st

[emergingDmajority1]

The latest ARG poll shows him 18 points behind and in a tough battle with Edwards for 2nd. Zogby seems to be the only one out of step.

[StevenNick]

The latest ARG poll shows him 18 points behind and in a tough battle with Edwards for 2nd. Zogby seems to be the only one out of step.

It wouldn't be the first time Zogby was out of step, but the Zogby polls turned out to be pretty close in Iowa.

[Nation]

I'd still stand by the fact that New Hampshire is unpredictable, and there will be many lurking variables for these final few polls, especially on Tuesday.

[emergingDmajority1]

true, I just hope it can break right for us again : ) follow the example Iowa set!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Zogby was one of the worst pollsters in Iowa... the one that got it spot on was the Iowa Poll.

[Gustaf]

Zogby was one of the worst pollsters in Iowa... the one that got it spot on was the Iowa Poll.

Can we expect the Iowa poll to give us an accurate prediction in New Hampshire as well?

[emergingDmajority1]

The Des Moines register had the best Iowa poll, there final predictions were

Kerry- 27%
Edwards- 23%
Dean- 20%
Gephardt- 18%

everybody was off on Gep by 5-7 points. but the order was correct, and he had kerry really pulling away.

[Gustaf]

The Des Moines register had the best Iowa poll, there final predictions were

Kerry- 27%
Edwards- 23%
Dean- 20%
Gephardt- 18%

everybody was off on Gep by 5-7 points. but the order was correct, and he had kerry really pulling away.

They missed Kerry by 11%, Edwards by 9%, Dean by 2% and Gephardt by 7%, but I suppose it was still reasonable, at least they had the order right...