Arab/Muslim Americans-- the forgotten minority?

[Beet]

So Nader has 20% support among Arab Americans, according to the Arab American Institute poll of Arab Americans in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. This is the only poll I have seen so far to target Arab Americans. Not surprisingly when asked how they would vote if the election were to be held today between Bush and Kerry, 54 percent of Arab Americans supported Kerry and 30 percent supported Bush. This is a big swing from the 2000 elections where 45.5 percent supported Bush and only 38 percent supported Al Gore (why did Arab Americans support Bush in 2000? Was this natural inclination to go against the party supported by Jews or something else?).

The numbers changed, however, when voters were asked about a three way race-- specifically one with Ralph Nader in the mix. In a three-way race, Bush recieved 27 percent of the vote, Kerry 43 percent and Nader recieved 20 percent. AAI's founder and president James Zogby (brother of the pollster) noted that Nader supporters tended to come from the native-born, college-educated and female subsections of the Arab-American community. Those who said they would support Nader also seemed to be driven by specific issues, with 80 percent indicating that a candidate's position on the Arab-Israeli conflict would be "very important" in determining their vote. Among these voters, about half would have supported Kerry in a two-candidate race whereas only 16 percent would have voted for Bush.

source: Arab American institute

Most Arab Americans are Christian. A plurality are Lebanese. There are a minimum of 7.5 million Muslim Americans and perhaps an additional million and a half Christian Arab Americans, and these are modest estimates. On the other hand, the Jewish vote is estimated to be only about five million people. Thus if Arab and Muslim-American voters are combined, their numbers are considerably higher than even the highest estimate of the Jewish vote.

This according to Richard Curtiss, editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, special report March2003 Vol. 22 Issue 2

Estimated Arab American populations in 4 battleground states (2000 margin of victory):
1) Michigan 151,493-490,000 (217,2790)
2) Florida 79,212-255,000 (537)
3) Pennsylvania 50,260-160,000 (204,840)
4) Virginia 46,151-135,000 (220,200)

Lower estimate is the result of the 2000 Census, upper estimate is based on the AAI's preferred methodology explained to adjust for differences between questioning ancestry and ethnicity, "the effect of the sample methodology on small, unevenly distributed ethnic groups, high levels of out-marriage among the third and fourth generations; and distrust/misunderstanding of government surveys among more recent immigrants." Note the AAI's numbers do not square with Richard Curtiss's numbers. The AAI also claims that 88.5% of Arab Americans are registered to vote, which is almost surely an opportunistic manipulation of the facts along with the upper bounds population numbers.

source: Arab American Institute

In addition, James Zogby (not the pollster) wrote a penetrating little piece that can be found here.
 
http://aaiusa.org/zogby/people_like_us.htm

[MarkDel]

James Zogby? Yeah, there's a great source. I've really enjoyed watching him get on every talk show and make excuses for 9/11, terrorism and everything negative ever done by Muslims, then tell me how the real problem is caused by anti-muslim sentiment in America and how it's not safe to be a muslim in this country. This guy needs extra hands to do the job he's such a colossal jerk-off.

[Beet]

James Zogby? Yeah, there's a great source. I've really enjoyed watching him get on every talk show and make excuses for 9/11, terrorism and everything negative ever done by Muslims, then tell me how the real problem is caused by anti-muslim sentiment in America and how it's not safe to be a muslim in this country. This guy needs extra hands to do the job he's such a colossal jerk-off.

Perhaps if I had cable TV I would know what you are talking about. I never heard of him before I saw that AAI site.

[12th Doctor]

What?  There are Muslims in this country?  

[MarkDel]

James Zogby? Yeah, there's a great source. I've really enjoyed watching him get on every talk show and make excuses for 9/11, terrorism and everything negative ever done by Muslims, then tell me how the real problem is caused by anti-muslim sentiment in America and how it's not safe to be a muslim in this country. This guy needs extra hands to do the job he's such a colossal jerk-off.

Perhaps if I had cable TV I would know what you are talking about. I never heard of him before I saw that AAI site.

Senator Beet,

Sorry about that. I just assumed you knew who James Zogby was. He's your classic anti-semitic, muslim apologist.

[opebo]

Muslims are not worth a second thought electorally - too small a group, and too concentrated in non-swingable states.  Also if fighting political Islam means loosing this voter segment, then I'm all for it.

[MarkDel]

Muslims are not worth a second thought electorally - too small a group, and too concentrated in non-swingable states.  Also if fighting political Islam means loosing this voter segment, then I'm all for it.

Opebo,

Actually, Muslims are a big enough factor in Michigan that they do matter in that state. Contrary to what this article says, Muslims are not an important voting bloc in either Ohio or Pennsylvania. It remains to be seen if they are in Florida or not, btu my guess is no. But as for Michigan, they can be a major factor in that state based on sheer numbers.

As for your other point...I totally agree. For every Muslim voter you would lose with a tough stance against Islamic Extremism you would pick up two more of people who feel Bush is too liberal and might otherwise vote for a conservative third party.

[opebo]

Muslims are not worth a second thought electorally - too small a group, and too concentrated in non-swingable states.  Also if fighting political Islam means loosing this voter segment, then I'm all for it.

Opebo,

Actually, Muslims are a big enough factor in Michigan that they do matter in that state. Contrary to what this article says, Muslims are not an important voting bloc in either Ohio or Pennsylvania. It remains to be seen if they are in Florida or not, btu my guess is no. But as for Michigan, they can be a major factor in that state based on sheer numbers.

As for your other point...I totally agree. For every Muslim voter you would lose with a tough stance against Islamic Extremism you would pick up two more of people who feel Bush is too liberal and might otherwise vote for a conservative third party.

All good points.  I guess I have always thought of Michigan as not a real swing state, though recent polls suggest I'm wrong - Bush could win it in even in a close election.  

[MarkDel]

Opebo,

Don't believe the Demoncrats on this site...Michigan is very winnable for Bush. The rural and suburban portions of Michigan are filled with pro-gun folks, and that issue really hurts the Democrats. Also, many of the blue collar workers who used to vote Democratic in Michigan have felt betrayed by the Democratic Party which seems FAR more concerned with appealing to rich, yuppie, tree hugger, environmentalists than to blue collar working class guys which used to be the backbone of the party.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Michigan is very winnable for Bush.

Uh. Yeah. Whatever.

[MarkDel]

Michigan is very winnable for Bush.

Uh. Yeah. Whatever.

Bandit73,

Yep, Bush is going to win Michigan and Kentucky, and I hear that he's going to make it mandatory that everyone has to wear a school uniform for at least one hour a day....LOL..no go back to your rubber room...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yep, Bush is going to win Michigan and Kentucky,

Ooh, is that a fact?

[MarkDel]

Yep, Bush is going to win Michigan and Kentucky,

Ooh, is that a fact?

Bandit73,

No, Michigan is up for grabs, but Bush will win Kentucky for certain.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

No, Michigan is up for grabs, but Bush will win Kentucky for certain.

Oh yeah?

The People's Forum poll has Nader well in the lead.

[KEmperor]

No, Michigan is up for grabs, but Bush will win Kentucky for certain.

Oh yeah?

The People's Forum poll has Nader well in the lead.

Where are the forums for the aliens?  I want to see what they have to say.

[12th Doctor]

Michigan is very winnable for Bush.

Uh. Yeah. Whatever.

Bandit73,

Yep, Bush is going to win Michigan and Kentucky, and I hear that he's going to make it mandatory that everyone has to wear a school uniform for at least one hour a day....LOL..no go back to your rubber room...

I don't know Mark, Kentucky is a stretch.  

[MarkDel]

Bandit73,

You know, I might have been wrong about you...you may not be crazy after all. Some of your answers are starting to look so intentionally crazy that you may just be some really sarcastic guy who has been having some fun at our expense...

[MarkDel]

Supersoulty,

Yeah, some stretch...LOL

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How is Bush going to win Michigan 2 years after they elected Granholm? The Republicans tried basically all the same smears on her they trying on Kerry now. And they reelected ultra-liberal Carl Levin in a landslide. And the economy there is still pretty lousy.

[sunnyd1182]

I'm actually kinda surprised by the poll that said more Arab/Muslims went to Bush in 2000 than to Gore. Most Arabs, Muslims, and Indian people I know (I'm Indian, BTW) tend to vote Democratic because they believe the propaganda that the Democrats would cater to them since they are "minorities," while the Republicans would not- that's why I was originally a Democrat back in 2000.

The truth of the matter is that Arabs, Indians, and Asians as a whole do not count as a real minority, and that they'd be far better off swinging Republican than Democratic. Unless of course they're a terrorist

On top of that, everyone from an eastern area like the Middle East already has naturally conservative views anyway (from their existing culture); they tend to be family-centered, strongly religious, and morally sound. Personally I have no idea why any of them (or my fellow Indians) would want to vote Democratic.

And I know some Dems are going to try to argue with me on this, but one simply has to look up the Democratic-defended University of Michigan admissions policy to see that Arabs and Asians as a whole simply get nothing out of voting Democratic, except a higher tax rate and a little less national security.

[raggage]

Opebo,

Don't believe the Demoncrats on this site...Michigan is very winnable for Bush. The rural and suburban portions of Michigan are filled with pro-gun folks, and that issue really hurts the Democrats. Also, many of the blue collar workers who used to vote Democratic in Michigan have felt betrayed by the Democratic Party which seems FAR more concerned with appealing to rich, yuppie, tree hugger, environmentalists than to blue collar working class guys which used to be the backbone of the party.

Agreed on the gun issue, especially in places like Flint. However, I cannot see either that Michigan voters are dumb enough to decide an election on that one issue, and two perhaps if the Dems have alienated their working class base, that matters not as the job losses under the Bush regime, have hit Michigan, just not to the extent that they did in say Iowa.

[MarkDel]

Opebo,

Don't believe the Demoncrats on this site...Michigan is very winnable for Bush. The rural and suburban portions of Michigan are filled with pro-gun folks, and that issue really hurts the Democrats. Also, many of the blue collar workers who used to vote Democratic in Michigan have felt betrayed by the Democratic Party which seems FAR more concerned with appealing to rich, yuppie, tree hugger, environmentalists than to blue collar working class guys which used to be the backbone of the party.

Agreed on the gun issue, especially in places like Flint. However, I cannot see either that Michigan voters are dumb enough to decide an election on that one issue, and two perhaps if the Dems have alienated their working class base, that matters not as the job losses under the Bush regime, have hit Michigan, just not to the extent that they did in say Iowa.

Raggage,

They may not decide on the gun issue alone, but that issue helps shape blue collar or rural voters overall view of the Democratic Party. When the Democratic Party was in the Roosevelt/Truman mold, strong on defense, extremely pro-labor and kind of disassociated from controversial social issues, then those Blue Collar and rural poor folks were a natural fit. But the 2004 version of the Democratic Party does not play well with the rural poor...issues like Guns, Gay Marriage, etc...put the Democrats on the wrong side with these voters, and the whole "Granola Issues" that sell well with the Urban Democrat or Pacific Northwest Democrat mean absolutely nothing to common folks like this.

The job losses in Michigan do hurt Bush, but the real question in this state...will the Blue Collar and Rural Lower Middle Class vote with their wallet or will they vote with their values. They have generally voted with their wallet over the past decade or so in Michigan, but the Democratic Party has taken a dramatic stampede to the Left since Clinton left office, and that brings this state back into play.

[MarkDel]

I'm actually kinda surprised by the poll that said more Arab/Muslims went to Bush in 2000 than to Gore. Most Arabs, Muslims, and Indian people I know (I'm Indian, BTW) tend to vote Democratic because they believe the propaganda that the Democrats would cater to them since they are "minorities," while the Republicans would not- that's why I was originally a Democrat back in 2000.

The truth of the matter is that Arabs, Indians, and Asians as a whole do not count as a real minority, and that they'd be far better off swinging Republican than Democratic. Unless of course they're a terrorist

On top of that, everyone from an eastern area like the Middle East already has naturally conservative views anyway (from their existing culture); they tend to be family-centered, strongly religious, and morally sound. Personally I have no idea why any of them (or my fellow Indians) would want to vote Democratic.

And I know some Dems are going to try to argue with me on this, but one simply has to look up the Democratic-defended University of Michigan admissions policy to see that Arabs and Asians as a whole simply get nothing out of voting Democratic, except a higher tax rate and a little less national security.

SunnyD,

Welcome to the forum. I agree with your observations. I think the reason the Arab-American vote went to Bush in 2000 is somewhat misleading as well. The polling done on this did not make a distinction between Arab Muslims and Arab Christians, and since a large part of the Arab population in the US is comprised of Lebanese Christians, that explains why Bush did better than you might think.

[raggage]

Opebo,

Don't believe the Demoncrats on this site...Michigan is very winnable for Bush. The rural and suburban portions of Michigan are filled with pro-gun folks, and that issue really hurts the Democrats. Also, many of the blue collar workers who used to vote Democratic in Michigan have felt betrayed by the Democratic Party which seems FAR more concerned with appealing to rich, yuppie, tree hugger, environmentalists than to blue collar working class guys which used to be the backbone of the party.

Agreed on the gun issue, especially in places like Flint. However, I cannot see either that Michigan voters are dumb enough to decide an election on that one issue, and two perhaps if the Dems have alienated their working class base, that matters not as the job losses under the Bush regime, have hit Michigan, just not to the extent that they did in say Iowa.

Raggage,

They may not decide on the gun issue alone, but that issue helps shape blue collar or rural voters overall view of the Democratic Party. When the Democratic Party was in the Roosevelt/Truman mold, strong on defense, extremely pro-labor and kind of disassociated from controversial social issues, then those Blue Collar and rural poor folks were a natural fit. But the 2004 version of the Democratic Party does not play well with the rural poor...issues like Guns, Gay Marriage, etc...put the Democrats on the wrong side with these voters, and the whole "Granola Issues" that sell well with the Urban Democrat or Pacific Northwest Democrat mean absolutely nothing to common folks like this.

The job losses in Michigan do hurt Bush, but the real question in this state...will the Blue Collar and Rural Lower Middle Class vote with their wallet or will they vote with their values. They have generally voted with their wallet over the past decade or so in Michigan, but the Democratic Party has taken a dramatic stampede to the Left since Clinton left office, and that brings this state back into play.

Vote with their wallet... there are job losses, and you must agree that Bush's tax cuts have had little to no impact upon lower to middle income earners.

[MarkDel]

Raggage,

Like I said, they HAVE been voting with their wallet for the past decade, but we'll see what happens this time around. If the Democrats had continued with Clinton's "New Democrat" policies and kept the ugly Left Wingers in the closet, then Michigan would be a sure thing for the Democrats in a Presidential election. Unfortunately for you guys, the 2000 Election brought the Left Wing extremists out of the closet and into the spotlight...and you guys have been paying the price nationally ever since...just take a look at the 2002 off-year elections.