Predictit has gop with 86% chance of gaining the house. Thoughts?

[Matty]

A) 86% is too high at this point
B) about right
C) Too low

[Coldstream]

Probably slightly too high, but it’s not unreasonable in the circumstances. 86% chance they have 1 more seat than the Democrats seems reasonable. 86% chance they get a big enough majority to actually get anything done seems less likely.

[DaleCooper]

86% feels too low, but given that we're a few months away I suppose it's fair enough. So I'll select B

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If the election were held today, sure.

But for an election 6 months from now, it's too high, especially considering the amount of variance that could be created by SCOTUS's upcoming abortion decision. 

[YE]

Too low.

[Xing]

Too low, since barring an enormous change in the environment, the House is gone for Democrats. Realistically, I think the best that Democrats can hope for is an underwhelming margin for Republicans in the House.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Before the Dobbs leak, I would have put it at about 90%.  Now I think it's more like 70%.  As NickG pointed out, there's still a lot of time left, which creates uncertainty that needs to be factored in.

[ElectionsGuy]

Too low, but more reasonable than their Senate/Governor ratios, which much like everything else underestimate Republicans.

[Unelectable Bystander]

If the election were held today, sure.

But for an election 6 months from now, it's too high, especially considering the amount of variance that could be created by SCOTUS's upcoming abortion decision. 

Lol

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Too low. The chances are 100.00000000%.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

There seems to be no one that actually thinks Democrats can keep the House.  It's guaranteed at this point that the 2023 House will be Republican... the Democrats are doing a horrific job of giving the party base what it wants, and they're doing a great job of giving the opposition what it wants.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Too low, but more reasonable than their Senate/Governor ratios, which much like everything else underestimate Republicans.

Polls also underestimate minorities whom would of thought Brown would win by 6 pts in 2018 and Beshear winning narrowly the Rs are even or tied on the GCB in 2010 they lead consistently on GCB because of Unpopular Obamacare

I remember you were one of the ones like Xing to say Bevin was gonna win, surprised, Beshear won and Rick Berg lost to Heidi Heikampt

I knew Casey was gonna win but Brown had a narrow path in 2018 and Ryan is gonna surprise everyone Blks don't like Vance but they like DEWINE

[MillennialModerate]

Too low. Short of a Cuban Missile Crisis or 9/11… it’s 100%

[Arizona Iced Tea]

At this point in 2018 it was 60D/40R for anyone interested. (I used the wayback machine, it's kinda cool looking at how races were viewed at different points before the election)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As far as 4 seats yes they do have a chance but as far as the GCB they don't have a 50 or better chance we will see in 4 mnths I never make predictions based on exact margins I overpredict it's your PREDICTION not an Election outcome that is unpredictable

It's VBM not same day and what happened last time races get within the margin of error and look at PA Sen R primary, if that's the case D's win them days or weeks and it takes time to count BALLOTS

Just like GA the Gov and Sen race can both go to Runoff

I keep telling users H and S races in VBM aren't gonna be called immediately, they can wait weeks because EC college don't have to meet 12/7

Especially AK Begich and Palin and Murkowski can lose a Runoff in 8/16th, OR Gov Betsy Johnson can take votes away from Tina K and win by 500 votes OR Gov isn't Safe D if I had to say it's Safe Johnson, Johnson is gonna get R votes

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

That sounds about right, given how incredibly narrow the Democratic margin already is. I'd probably say slightly higher, but not meaningfully so.