13 Keys to the Presidency in 2008

[Fritz]

Now that the midterms are over and the 2008 Presidential election is starting to take shape, I think it's time to look at the 13 Keys.

For those unfamiliar, the 13 Keys to the Presidency has accurately predicted the winner of the Popular Vote (not electoral vote) for every Presidential election since 1860.  If 7 or more are true, the incumbent party in the White House wins.  If 7 or more are false, the incumbent party loses.

1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more U.S. House seats than it did before the previous presidential election.
DEFINITELY FALSE

2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (In a serious contest, the challenger goes to the convention with more of the first-ballot votes.)
PROBABLY FALSE

3. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
FALSE

4. There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (Third parties hurt the incumbent party. Exception: A splinter from the other party such as Pat Buchanan.)
PROBABLY TRUE

5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
TRUE

6. Real per-capita economic growth during the current presidential term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
TRUE (I think, could be wrong)

7. The administration has effected major changes in national policy.
Debatable.  The Bush Administration has effected changes in national policy, I am not sure if they are "major" changes for the criteria of the Keys.

8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
FALSE, debatably.

9. The administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE

10. It has suffered no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Debatable.  Again, the word "major" makes this difficult to gage.

11. It has achieved a major success in foreign or military affairs.
TRUE, I guess overthrowing Hussein counts.

12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
FALSE

13. The other candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
TRUE (Barack Obama might qualify, however)


So, discounting qualifiers such as "probably" or "I think", I have 6 trues and 5 falses.  The two I left open as "debatable" both include the word "major", leaving them open to some amount of interpretation.

Discuss!!!

[Boris]

11. It has achieved a major success in foreign or military affairs.
TRUE, I guess overthrowing Hussein counts.

This is definitely a false. The Iraq War is by far the biggest liability to the GOP. It's the reason why 2004 was even remotely close, and is the primary reason why Nancy Pelosi is Speaker of the House and Harry Reid is the Senate Majority Leader.

If Iraq is out of control come 2008, it will be very difficult for the Republicans to retain the White House, unless their agenda involves a major change of strategy in Iraq.

[Fritz]

Good points, but I think your arguments give stronger support to an assertation that key #10 should be false, rather than #11.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
TRUE

How do you know?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wrong
http://www.bls.gov/fls/flsgdp.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, they did effect some significant changes, I just wouldn't call those good things.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Definitely false: Iraq, NSA wiretaps, and so on

You must be logged in to read this quote.

FALSE

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Anyways, I would beware of various prediction indicators like "if the Dow loses more than 0.5 percent of its value in the month of October before Election Day, then an incumbent president is going to lose his job.". It worked for a century straight, but then we didn't get President Kerry.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/29/markets/election_dow/index.htm