OH-GOV 2022 Megathread: Is DeWine in trouble?

[Senator-elect Spark]

DeWine barely won the primary in this crowded field. I doubt he'd have won against a single primary opponent. That aside, this is a likely R seat in the midterm national environment.

[Sir Mohamed]

Why do people assume DeWine would have lost a one-on-one primary? Sure, his margin would have been closer, but it's very bold to assume he wouldn't have gotten the additional 1.9% missing for an absolutely majority.

[Badger]

DeWine could absolutely match John Kasichs Reelection Victory in 2024. Kasich got almost 65 % of the Vote. If that happens he effectivly will pull Vance over the Finish Line.

That's a stretch but I could definitely see DeWine getting into the upper 50's and possibly lower 60's in his best case. I do think he'll lose some support among anti-lockdown Republicans but will make it up with crossover Democrats and independents who approved of his COVID handling. I will vote for him in November bar a bombshell against him and will most likely vote independent in the Senate.

Too lazy to look up: What independent/third party is running for Senate whom you're consideringsupporting? A Libertarian I assume is running.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Ryan gets some moment we need Nan Whaley as Gov Browj already endorsed WHALEY and Ryan

[GALeftist]

Titanium R, Republicans in Ohio obviously aren't gonna stay home and DeWine has an unearned moderate image that will help him in big metros

[President Johnson]

DeWine barely won the primary in this crowded field. I doubt he'd have won against a single primary opponent. That aside, this is a likely R seat in the midterm national environment.

Winning by a twenty point margin is not barely. Just getting 48% as an incumbent may be underwhelming, but he won this fair and square.

[Badger]

Maps.

[ElectionsGuy]

Why do people assume DeWine would have lost a one-on-one primary? Sure, his margin would have been closer, but it's very bold to assume he wouldn't have gotten the additional 1.9% missing for an absolutely majority.

It's pretty easy to see how, in a 1 v 1, the opponent gets a Trump endorsement and much more money, thereby growing their support beyond the 52% that didn't vote for DeWine. The issue here was the split field and the lack of any solid candidate.

[Badger]

Why do people assume DeWine would have lost a one-on-one primary? Sure, his margin would have been closer, but it's very bold to assume he wouldn't have gotten the additional 1.9% missing for an absolutely majority.

It's pretty easy to see how, in a 1 v 1, the opponent gets a Trump endorsement and much more money, thereby growing their support beyond the 52% that didn't vote for DeWine. The issue here was the split field and the lack of any solid candidate.

That is certainly quite a theory. Quite impressive with some of people on this forum will hypothesize to create a theory where a guy that just won renomination by over 20 points somehow loses in an alternate universe because reasons.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why do people assume DeWine would have lost a one-on-one primary? Sure, his margin would have been closer, but it's very bold to assume he wouldn't have gotten the additional 1.9% missing for an absolutely majority.

It's pretty easy to see how, in a 1 v 1, the opponent gets a Trump endorsement and much more money, thereby growing their support beyond the 52% that didn't vote for DeWine. The issue here was the split field and the lack of any solid candidate.

That is certainly quite a theory. Quite impressive with some of people on this forum will hypothesize to create a theory where a guy that just won renomination by over 20 points somehow loses in an alternate universe because reasons.

Eh, I think he's on to something.

The issue is that the single candidate running against DeWine who could have won could not have been Renacci. After losing what, in hindsight, was a winnable race in 2018, Trump came to view Renacci as a loser. We know this. So, there was no shot Renacci would receive a Trump endorsement under any circumstance. (And he still got Junior to campaign with him!)

Had Jim Jordan acolyte Warren Davidson hopped in the Governor's race, as he teased for a couple of months, I could definitely see DeWine going down in a head-to-head race. Sure, DeWine's 20% plurality margin is impressive. However, Renacci and Blystone were poor candidates in a deeply divided field and still got 50% of the vote combined. (That's not even accounting for Hood's 2%.)

Given DeWine's incumbency and 40 years of statewide name ID, that's more impressive than his win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once we see a poll and see that Ryan is tied with Vance, like a September poll showed a tied rave Whaley can get some momentum I have a gut feeling that D's can win all the battleground except TX because of Roe and tax cuts for the rich is gonna galvanize Female voters

The Crt touched on a nerve in Roe but combined with Rs tax cut scheme for the wealthy D's are gonna triumph in Nov it's not just Roe but both tax cuts and Roe

It's gonna help Hassan in NH after being outed for minimum wage

Vance isn't dominating like Portman and DeWine only won by 3 in 2018

I hope it does we need DC and PR Statehood

[Rjjr77]

Once we see a poll and see that Ryan is tied with Vance, like a September poll showed a tied rave Whaley can get some momentum I have a gut feeling that D's can win all the battleground except TX because of Roe and tax cuts for the rich is gonna galvanize Female voters

The Crt touched on a nerve in Roe but combined with Rs tax cut scheme for the wealthy D's are gonna triumph in Nov it's not just Roe but both tax cuts and Roe

It's gonna help Hassan in NH after being outed for minimum wage

Vance isn't dominating like Portman and DeWine only won by 3 in 2018

I hope it does we need DC and PR Statehood

I try not to reply to your hot takes, but Strickland and Portman were tied this point too, what happened?

Ryans gonna get smoked, whaley by even more

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Ryan is gonna get smoked and there hasn't been 1 poll on this race yeah sure

[Rjjr77]

Yeah Ryan is gonna get smoked and there hasn't been 1 poll on this race yeah sure

Keep pretending its 2006 bud. Ohios gone