OH-GOV 2022 Megathread: Is DeWine in trouble?

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1329881352603389953

[ElectionsGuy]

If there's going to be any action in Ohio in 2022, it's going to be in the Republican primary.

[Left Wing]

Tim Ryan v Jim Jordan?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tim Ryan v Jim Jordan?

That’s like the one way Tim Ryan could win

[Frenchrepublican]

Tim Ryan v Jim Jordan?

That’s like the one way Tim Ryan could win

Tim Ryan would very likely still lose considering the state's lean and the bad climate for his party.

[neostassenite31]

If DeWine pulls through the GOP primary it'll likely be a Republican gubernatorial landslide.

With Jim Jordan Democrats will actually have a not-insignificant chance of winning the office with the right candidate.

Remember Ohio is R+12 relative to the NPV this year and Kansas was R+22 in 2016, and even after adjusting for midterm effects attributable to the White House incumbent, the political environment in Ohio come 2022 should be no worse than the environment in Kansas in 2018 when Laura Kelly won. 

[Frenchrepublican]

I'm very sceptic about that, Jordan is a lazy politican who has the luxury to live in a safe seat, he can stay in the House as long he wants and he can continue to play firebrand politics, add to that the fact that democrats are probably going to lose the House which could boost his career as his party would be back in the majority.
Another factor to keep in mind is that were Renacci and Taylor to run too, the ''far right'' field would be deeply divided and it would make a Jordan win close to impossible.

Also it is possible that moderate democrats decide to get involved in the open primary in order to boost the more moderate DeWine (see the 2016 primary), which would make things even harder for him.

[Frenchrepublican]

If DeWine pulls through the GOP primary it'll likely be a Republican gubernatorial landslide.

With Jim Jordan Democrats will actually have a not-insignificant chance of winning the office with the right candidate.

Remember Ohio is R+12 relative to the NPV this year and Kansas was R+22 in 2016, and even after adjusting for midterm effects attributable to the White House incumbent, the political environment in Ohio come 2022 should be no worse than the environment in Kansas in 2018 when Laura Kelly won.  

Jordan is probably closer to someone like DeSantis (conservative libertarian) than to someone like Kris Kobach (plain crazy).

[KaiserDave]

DeWine is definitely getting a primary.

But I think he'll step aside for Husted.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If DeWine pulls through the GOP primary it'll likely be a Republican gubernatorial landslide.

With Jim Jordan Democrats will actually have a not-insignificant chance of winning the office with the right candidate.

Remember Ohio is R+12 relative to the NPV this year and Kansas was R+22 in 2016, and even after adjusting for midterm effects attributable to the White House incumbent, the political environment in Ohio come 2022 should be no worse than the environment in Kansas in 2018 when Laura Kelly won.  

You cannot apply the traditional midterm collapse of the incumbent party to 2022, due to the relatively low Unemployment and popularity of Biden. Trump never hit 51% althats why he lost seats and Obama hit 11%, unemployment. Not to mention, Trump is likely to be prosecuted affecting the midterm races. Laura Kelly will win, but 2024/2026 with Brown and an open OH Gov race are better pickups for D's in OH, unless Tim Ryan gets into act

[Chips]

DeWine will have a primary challenge but the GOP will almost certainly win the governorship no matter who the nominees are. I plan on voting DeWine in the GOP primary and the election if he's the nominee, Otherwise I will vote third-party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course French Republican is gonna agree with everything of a D 2022 collapse, by D's Rs don't want to see DC statehood enshrined in Constitution, D's aren't gonna agree that 2022 is owned by Rs

[Bootes Void]

If DeWine pulls through the GOP primary it'll likely be a Republican gubernatorial landslide.

With Jim Jordan Democrats will actually have a not-insignificant chance of winning the office with the right candidate.

Remember Ohio is R+12 relative to the NPV this year and Kansas was R+22 in 2016, and even after adjusting for midterm effects attributable to the White House incumbent, the political environment in Ohio come 2022 should be no worse than the environment in Kansas in 2018 when Laura Kelly won.  

Jordan is probably closer to someone like DeSantis (conservative libertarian) than to someone like Kris Kobach (plain crazy).

I think Jordan is a pure crazy person, definately not in the mold of DeSantis. I could see someone like Chaffetz,Gaetz  or Gowdy who might be more DeSantis like

Also remember Boehner once called Jordan a legislative terrorist

[user12345]

Looks like I'll have to pull a Republican primary ballot to vote for him then.

[lfromnj]

Looks like I'll have to pull a Republican primary ballot to vote for him then.

If I have to see blue avatar Badger again ....

[brucejoel99]

OH has open primaries, so I'd be pretty confident in DeWine not losing since he'd kick Jordan's ass with independents, & if the OH Dems don't really bother to try to beat DeWine, then DeWine can expect some crossover votes from Democrats too.

If it were a closed primary, then I think he'd be in trouble, in which case, Democrats would need to capitalize on the opportunity to run against Jordan instead of DeWine.

[brucejoel99]

If a DeWine/Husted deal ever existed, it certainly doesn't now:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1330522615170129928

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/JMBorchardt/status/1402735910773473284?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yrs, because Ryan is completetive in OH and never lost a race before, the Senate and Gov race aren't slam dunk R states

[Suburbia]

Likely/Safe R........

[user12345]

The real challenge for DeWine will be the primary, not the general.

[Lognog]

The real challenge for DeWine will be the primary, not the general.

This. I am a pretty far left def (Bernie supporter, for M4A, for Green new deal), but man I hope Dewine wins. I really don't like the vast majority of his policies, however I can say with confidence that he is sane and handled COVID well which is much more than I can say for the vast amount of elected Republicans in this country

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If M DeWine goes down it can be a huge upset with GOV NaN, users never believe in upsets

[NewYorkExpress]

Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley is in.

Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley launched a long-expected campaign for governor of Ohio on Tuesday, setting up a potentially discordant and expensive primary for Democrats in a state they have led for only four of the last 30 years.

Cranley is pitching his candidacy around a push to legalize recreational marijuana in the state, either through the Legislature or by a ballot initiative.

Tax revenue from the sale of legal weed would go toward promoting clean energy, building roads and expanding broadband access — efforts that he said could create 30,000 new jobs paying at least $60,000 a year. Cranley also wants to use state revenue collected from the energy industry to award $500 annual dividends to every Ohio household.

"I expect to accomplish those three things in my first four years," Cranley, 47, said in an interview.

He said that if he wins and falls short of those goals, he would not run for re-election as governor.

Cranley joins Dayton Mayor Mayor Nan Whaley in the Democratic Primary.

[Sir Mohamed]

Whaley is still favored for the nomination, I guess?

It's Likely R anyway, perhaps Lean R if DeWine is replaced by a far right candidate. That said, Dems haven't occupied the Governor's Mansion in Columbus since 1991 for all but 4 years and there's little reason to believe that will change in 2022.