Could Mastriano be the Gillum of 2022

[OSR stands with Israel]

Basically a candidate from the populist wing of the party defeats the candidate everyone thought would be the nominee for most of the campaign(Gillum over Graham and Mastriano over Barletta) and then goes on to fail to pick up an open seat in a state their previous presidential nominee only lost by 1.2 points(Hillary lost Florida by 1.2 points and Trump lost Pennsylvania by 1.17 points). This happened despite a huge wave environment for their party which seemed to take place everywhere but that particular state.

Really Pennsylvania this entire cycle has given me FL 2018 Redux vibes and if McCormick wins the primary then yah it would have an uncanny resemblance to the 2018 FL Senate Race as well. Its why I backed Oz over McCormick in the end as I do think hed be more electable at the end of the day. 

[Chips]

Very possible.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Well everyone knew Mastriano would win like two-three weeks before the primary. Gillum was lagging until primary day.

[Sol]

Everyone post-primary thought Gillum would win until he lost.

[ElectionsGuy]

If anything, he's going to be the DeSantis of 2022. The guy everybody expects to lose but ends up winning.

People conveniently forget now, but DeSantis was similarly cast as unelectable, super "pro Trump" and far-right. And the vast majority of people here bought into that, including Republicans. Hell, he's still characterized like that today, it's just that Democrats have become more pessimistic in Florida so they don't think he'll lose. But it's really important to remember accurately because we're now making the same exact mistakes and assumptions today, only with more drama around election administration. Shapiro is probably a better candidate than Gillum, though, but nobody was talking as if Gillum was the bad candidate in 2018. It was all about how extreme and bad DeSantis was.

[Sol]

If anything, he's going to be the DeSantis of 2022. The guy everybody expects to lose but ends up winning.

People conveniently forget now, but DeSantis was similarly cast as unelectable, super "pro Trump" and far-right. And the vast majority of people here bought into that, including Republicans. Hell, he's still characterized like that today, it's just that Democrats have become more pessimistic in Florida so they don't think he'll lose. But it's really important to remember accurately because we're now making the same exact mistakes and assumptions today, only with more drama around election administration. Shapiro is probably a better candidate than Gillum, though, but nobody was talking as if Gillum was the bad candidate in 2018. It was all about how extreme and bad DeSantis was.

In fairness, I do think a lot of Gillum's underperformance came from the fact that the place where the Florida Democratic Party backslid in 2018 was in Miami, which is particularly difficult to poll. Both Gillum and Nelson did reasonably well in most of the state, on track to get a narrow win.

Though ofc people didn't expect Gillum to underperform Nelson, and then he did, so.

[Xing]

I think I've got it:

Mastriano = Gillum '18
Fetterman = Rick Scott '18
Oz = BILL NELSON LOL
Masto = Braley '14 (Nevada = New Iowa)
Sisolak = Lincoln '10
Mark Kelly = Reid '10
Warnock = Feingold '10
Kemp = Deal '14
Hassan = Peters '14
Ron Johnson = Sullivan '14 (Terrible candidate who only barely wins because his state is ridiculously Republican)
Evers = Corbett '14
Rubio = Grassley '16
DeSantis = Sandoval '14
Whitmer = Wolf '14
Laura Kelly = Edwards '19
Murray = Coakley '10

Am I doing this right?

[Person Man]

He's caught with meth and a gay hooker?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think I've got it:

Mastriano = Gillum '18
Fetterman = Rick Scott '18
Oz = BILL NELSON LOL

McCormick would fit the Bill Nelson redux far more

[DrScholl]

If anything, he's going to be the DeSantis of 2022. The guy everybody expects to lose but ends up winning.

People conveniently forget now, but DeSantis was similarly cast as unelectable, super "pro Trump" and far-right. And the vast majority of people here bought into that, including Republicans. Hell, he's still characterized like that today, it's just that Democrats have become more pessimistic in Florida so they don't think he'll lose. But it's really important to remember accurately because we're now making the same exact mistakes and assumptions today, only with more drama around election administration. Shapiro is probably a better candidate than Gillum, though, but nobody was talking as if Gillum was the bad candidate in 2018. It was all about how extreme and bad DeSantis was.

DeSantis didn't run as a total nutcase like Mastriano is. Mastriano just promised to decertify the 2024 election and was present at the insurrection. Besides, Pennsylvania is not Florida.

[Tekken_Guy]

If anything, he's going to be the DeSantis of 2022. The guy everybody expects to lose but ends up winning.

People conveniently forget now, but DeSantis was similarly cast as unelectable, super "pro Trump" and far-right. And the vast majority of people here bought into that, including Republicans. Hell, he's still characterized like that today, it's just that Democrats have become more pessimistic in Florida so they don't think he'll lose. But it's really important to remember accurately because we're now making the same exact mistakes and assumptions today, only with more drama around election administration. Shapiro is probably a better candidate than Gillum, though, but nobody was talking as if Gillum was the bad candidate in 2018. It was all about how extreme and bad DeSantis was.

Mastriano is far to DeSantis’s right. DeSantis is comparable to Barletta. Mastriano would be like running Laura Loomer or Anthony Sabatini for governor.

And Florida is zooming rightward at a speed that Pennsylvania is not.

[Tiger08]

If anything, he's going to be the DeSantis of 2022. The guy everybody expects to lose but ends up winning.

People conveniently forget now, but DeSantis was similarly cast as unelectable, super "pro Trump" and far-right. And the vast majority of people here bought into that, including Republicans. Hell, he's still characterized like that today, it's just that Democrats have become more pessimistic in Florida so they don't think he'll lose. But it's really important to remember accurately because we're now making the same exact mistakes and assumptions today, only with more drama around election administration. Shapiro is probably a better candidate than Gillum, though, but nobody was talking as if Gillum was the bad candidate in 2018. It was all about how extreme and bad DeSantis was.

Mastriano is far to DeSantis’s right. DeSantis is comparable to Barletta. Mastriano would be like running Laura Loomer or Anthony Sabatini for governor.

And Florida is zooming rightward at a speed that Pennsylvania is not.

Mastriano recently called DeSantis an "amateur"

[sting in the rafters]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

[sting in the rafters]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

They all voted HRC in 2016. Very common misconception about SEPA, those "traditional D-Rs" thought Bush was too far to the right for them, and the younger generation under them is downright turboliberal. NE Chester County aren't "swing voters", they're the Democratic base. Trust me dude the type of voters you're talking about are those who have the "In This Town No Child Fights Alone" bumper stickers. I've actually been doing a voter registration data analysis/warehousing effort going back to '98. I'd publish it if I could figure out how to put it on a place other than pastebin or converting it to pdf without getting doxxed. The numbers are..... no bueno. No bueno man.


What's really gonna sink them is Philly. If Tidewater/South Jersey were any indications as well as anecdotal, black voters are checked out rn too. Ds are forgetting they don't vote D because it's "the right thing to do", they do it because they think it'll materially help them. And how the f____ are they gonna think that w/how f___ed the economy is rn? They won't vote R, but a significant portion will sure as s____ stay home.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

They all voted HRC in 2016. Very common misconception about SEPA, those "traditional D-Rs" thought Bush was too far to the right for them, and the younger generation under them is downright turboliberal. NE Chester County aren't "swing voters", they're the Democratic base. Trust me dude the type of voters you're talking about are those who have the "In This Town No Child Fights Alone" bumper stickers.

Oh there’s plenty of room for him to fall. If Mastriano is doing as badly as Wagner or even Barletta, both of which did worse than Trump 2020 in SEPA, he’s finished.

[ElectionsGuy]

If anything, he's going to be the DeSantis of 2022. The guy everybody expects to lose but ends up winning.

People conveniently forget now, but DeSantis was similarly cast as unelectable, super "pro Trump" and far-right. And the vast majority of people here bought into that, including Republicans. Hell, he's still characterized like that today, it's just that Democrats have become more pessimistic in Florida so they don't think he'll lose. But it's really important to remember accurately because we're now making the same exact mistakes and assumptions today, only with more drama around election administration. Shapiro is probably a better candidate than Gillum, though, but nobody was talking as if Gillum was the bad candidate in 2018. It was all about how extreme and bad DeSantis was.

Mastriano is far to DeSantis’s right. DeSantis is comparable to Barletta. Mastriano would be like running Laura Loomer or Anthony Sabatini for governor.

And Florida is zooming rightward at a speed that Pennsylvania is not.

I didn't make an ideological comparison. Just how he is perceived and talked about.

And this "zooming rightward" talk is nonsense. From 2012 to 2020, PA trended 5 points R. Florida also trended 5 points R in that same period, just moreso from 2016-2020 in FL because of the Hispanic shift. A red wave under Obama in 2010 flipped PA red barely. A red wave today can make even a weak Republican win the state if the race is nationalized enough (which, it looks like it will be, with the way Shapiro and Mastriano are running).

But you seem very committed to the idea that Mastriano is just too "toxic" to win and will lose because of those all-important Trump/Biden voters in SEPA. Weren't you the guy who suggested Trump kinda rigged the election in 2020 because he did too well?

[DaleCooper]

I don't predict Democrats to win any of the big statewide PA races, but to be fair turnout is going to be huge on both sides. Anti-Trump voters aren't staying home.

[Tekken_Guy]

If anything, he's going to be the DeSantis of 2022. The guy everybody expects to lose but ends up winning.

People conveniently forget now, but DeSantis was similarly cast as unelectable, super "pro Trump" and far-right. And the vast majority of people here bought into that, including Republicans. Hell, he's still characterized like that today, it's just that Democrats have become more pessimistic in Florida so they don't think he'll lose. But it's really important to remember accurately because we're now making the same exact mistakes and assumptions today, only with more drama around election administration. Shapiro is probably a better candidate than Gillum, though, but nobody was talking as if Gillum was the bad candidate in 2018. It was all about how extreme and bad DeSantis was.

Mastriano is far to DeSantis’s right. DeSantis is comparable to Barletta. Mastriano would be like running Laura Loomer or Anthony Sabatini for governor.

And Florida is zooming rightward at a speed that Pennsylvania is not.

I didn't make an ideological comparison. Just how he is perceived and talked about.

And this "zooming rightward" talk is nonsense. From 2012 to 2020, PA trended 5 points R. Florida also trended 5 points R in that same period, just moreso from 2016-2020 in FL because of the Hispanic shift. A red wave under Obama in 2010 flipped PA red barely. A red wave today can make even a weak Republican win the state if the race is nationalized enough (which, it looks like it will be, with the way Shapiro and Mastriano are running).

But you seem very committed to the idea that Mastriano is just too "toxic" to win and will lose because of those all-important Trump/Biden voters in SEPA. Weren't you the guy who suggested Trump kinda rigged the election in 2020 because he did too well?

Yeah that was just me being surprised at how Trump almost defied the polls again. I didn’t actually believe that stuff. I was kind of joking.

Anyway those Trump-Biden voters are absolutely not going to be voting for Mastriano. I cannot imagine a single Biden voter who’s going to be voting for someone like him. And 2018 showed a lot of Trump voters were willing to cross over for Casey and Wolf. Those voters will likely break overwhelmingly for Shapiro.

And there’s a limit to how extreme candidates Republicans are willing to tolerate. Steve King barely squeaking out a win in 2018 is an example, and so is Kobach and Moore losing.

I remain firm in my prediction that Mastriano will lose and run far behind Oz.

[sting in the rafters]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

They all voted HRC in 2016. Very common misconception about SEPA, those "traditional D-Rs" thought Bush was too far to the right for them, and the younger generation under them is downright turboliberal. NE Chester County aren't "swing voters", they're the Democratic base. Trust me dude the type of voters you're talking about are those who have the "In This Town No Child Fights Alone" bumper stickers.

Oh there’s plenty of room for him to fall. If Mastriano is doing as badly as Wagner or even Barletta, both of which did worse than Trump 2020 in SEPA, he’s finished.

Think about the difference in base turnout between 2018 and 2022 my man. And even so, ask yourself if your hypothetical swing voter, whom is most certainly over 50 by now, is comfortable with fascism if they think it means lower gas prices and cinnamon life not being 4 bucks a box.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

They all voted HRC in 2016. Very common misconception about SEPA, those "traditional D-Rs" thought Bush was too far to the right for them, and the younger generation under them is downright turboliberal. NE Chester County aren't "swing voters", they're the Democratic base. Trust me dude the type of voters you're talking about are those who have the "In This Town No Child Fights Alone" bumper stickers.

Oh there’s plenty of room for him to fall. If Mastriano is doing as badly as Wagner or even Barletta, both of which did worse than Trump 2020 in SEPA, he’s finished.

Think about the difference in base turnout between 2018 and 2022 my man. And even so, ask yourself if your hypothetical swing voter, whom is most certainly over 50 by now, is comfortable with fascism if they think it means lower gas prices and cinnamon life not being 4 bucks a box.

It wasn’t just base turnout. It was crossover support that got Wolf and Casey across, and this is the kind of support Shapiro could get even in a strong wave year. It’s hard to imagine the PA 2018 electorate was Clinton+15.

Also, governor races have been decoupled enough from the national environment to allow people like Hickenlooper, Wolf, Hogan, or Sununu to pull across the finish line in bad years for their party.

And those swing voters and even base R voters were still willing to break from candidates like Steve King, Kris Kobach, or Roy Moore, all in way redder states or districts than PA is.

[sting in the rafters]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

They all voted HRC in 2016. Very common misconception about SEPA, those "traditional D-Rs" thought Bush was too far to the right for them, and the younger generation under them is downright turboliberal. NE Chester County aren't "swing voters", they're the Democratic base. Trust me dude the type of voters you're talking about are those who have the "In This Town No Child Fights Alone" bumper stickers.

Oh there’s plenty of room for him to fall. If Mastriano is doing as badly as Wagner or even Barletta, both of which did worse than Trump 2020 in SEPA, he’s finished.

Think about the difference in base turnout between 2018 and 2022 my man. And even so, ask yourself if your hypothetical swing voter, whom is most certainly over 50 by now, is comfortable with fascism if they think it means lower gas prices and cinnamon life not being 4 bucks a box.

It wasn’t just base turnout. It was crossover support that got Wolf and Casey across, and this is the kind of support Shapiro could get even in a strong wave year. It’s hard to imagine the PA 2018 electorate was Clinton+15.

Also, governor races have been decoupled enough from the national environment to allow people like Hickenlooper, Wolf, Hogan, or Sununu to pull across the finish line in bad years for their party.

And those swing voters and even base R voters were still willing to break from candidates like Steve King, Kris Kobach, or Roy Moore, all in way redder states or districts than PA is.

Dude I'm not saying it's a lock but any R, even Mastriano is favored rn over Shapiro bc the fundamentals are so bad that candidate quality kinda goes out the window. Again, are they going to give a s___ that he's a fascist when inflation is thru the roof? That's literally how fascism came to power historically in the first place? And again, VA/NJ showed the same super-heated rural turnout. If that was enough for Youngkin and almost for Ciattarelli (despite his campaign kinda mailing it in bc polls were showing non-competitive), what's it gonna be in PA where the population is much older and whiter?

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

They all voted HRC in 2016. Very common misconception about SEPA, those "traditional D-Rs" thought Bush was too far to the right for them, and the younger generation under them is downright turboliberal. NE Chester County aren't "swing voters", they're the Democratic base. Trust me dude the type of voters you're talking about are those who have the "In This Town No Child Fights Alone" bumper stickers.

Oh there’s plenty of room for him to fall. If Mastriano is doing as badly as Wagner or even Barletta, both of which did worse than Trump 2020 in SEPA, he’s finished.

Think about the difference in base turnout between 2018 and 2022 my man. And even so, ask yourself if your hypothetical swing voter, whom is most certainly over 50 by now, is comfortable with fascism if they think it means lower gas prices and cinnamon life not being 4 bucks a box.

It wasn’t just base turnout. It was crossover support that got Wolf and Casey across, and this is the kind of support Shapiro could get even in a strong wave year. It’s hard to imagine the PA 2018 electorate was Clinton+15.

Also, governor races have been decoupled enough from the national environment to allow people like Hickenlooper, Wolf, Hogan, or Sununu to pull across the finish line in bad years for their party.

And those swing voters and even base R voters were still willing to break from candidates like Steve King, Kris Kobach, or Roy Moore, all in way redder states or districts than PA is.

Dude I'm not saying it's a lock but any R, even Mastriano is favored rn over Shapiro bc the fundamentals are so bad that candidate quality kinda goes out the window. Again, are they going to give a s___ that he's a fascist when inflation is thru the roof? That's literally how fascism came to power historically in the first place? And again, VA/NJ showed the same super-heated rural turnout. If that was enough for Youngkin and almost for Ciattarelli (despite his campaign kinda mailing it in bc polls were showing non-competitive), what's it gonna be in PA where the population is much older and whiter?

Youngkin and Ciattarelli also cut down suburban margins massively. Mastriano’s in a redder state so he has less work to do but he can’t afford any backsliding from Trump in the suburbs.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't predict Democrats to win any of the big statewide PA races, but to be fair turnout is going to be huge on both sides. Anti-Trump voters aren't staying home.

If turnout is huge I don’t see how Mastriano makes it. He will do very poorly with center right voters who will favor Republicans in most other races, and will gain zero support from the anti-Trump crowd. He will likely lose all four collar counties by more than Trump did, which makes winning PA nearly impossible.

[Mr. Smith]

He's caught with meth and a gay hooker?

Surprisingly plausible.