Would Max Rose win NY-11 in 2022 as the incumbent?

[Tekken_Guy]

Would Max Rose win NY-11 in 2022 as the incumbent? He lost the outgoing Trump+11 seat by 6 points but would now be in a Trump+2.5 seat.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

No. No seat less than Biden +10 is winnable for any Democrat this year. He would lose by double digits.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

No, at the end of the day it is still a Trump seat in the red wave year. In 2018 the only two Republicans to survive Clinton districts were Fitzpatrick and Katko. Both of them had a longer personal brand that I don't think Max Rose has. (Fitzpatrick just took over his brother's seat in 2016 which certainly helped him with familial name recognition)

[NewYorkExpress]

No. No seat less than Biden +10 is winnable for any Democrat this year. He would lose by double digits.

I'd say Democrats will be lucky to win anything outside of districts that Biden won by 50+ points quite honestly (and Republicans will probably just refuse to seat those winners anyways).

[Meatball Ron]

No. No seat less than Biden +10 is winnable for any Democrat this year. He would lose by double digits.

Lmao. Dems are going to lose plenty of Biden seats but to say nothing less than Biden +10 is even WINNABLE (meaning, a reasonable chance of Dems winning) is an absolutely INSANE comment to make.

[ElectionsGuy]

No. No seat less than Biden +10 is winnable for any Democrat this year. He would lose by double digits.

Lmao. Dems are going to lose plenty of Biden seats but to say nothing less than Biden +10 is even WINNABLE (meaning, a reasonable chance of Dems winning) is an absolutely INSANE comment to make.

True, but I hear way more often anything more than Biden +10 is off the table, which is equally if not more ridiculous this year.

And we should really stop only mentioning the presidential numbers as if it's the only thing that matters too. Previous performances for other offices, especially with incumbents, matter.