a question for the vorlon...

[WalterMitty]

as specific as you can be, what demographic group supports bush the most?   in other words, what is his base voter that will vote for him no matter what?

im guessing a southern, married, white male making in excess of 40 grand a year.

im assuming that blacks are kerry's most loyal group of supporters, most specifically black women.

[elcorazon]

as specific as you can be, what demographic group supports bush the most?   in other words, what is his base voter that will vote for him no matter what?

im guessing a southern, married, white male making in excess of 40 grand a year.

im assuming that blacks are kerry's most loyal group of supporters, most specifically black women.

I'd guess that those making more than 100,000 would be even more in favor of Bush.  You also forgot Christian (Fundamentalist, possibly).  I'm not sure you need southern in there... I think Bush may be supported even more in the west (not the coast, however) (Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, etc.)

[WalterMitty]

i dont think the fundies are bush's most core group of supporters.  they bellyache a whole lot.  they are never satisified and are constantly threatening to stay home etc.

i also dont believe those making over 100 grand are his core group of supporters.  a lot of rich people are liberals.

[elcorazon]

we'll await vorlon's opinion.  HE knows all.  I stand by my view (at least until vorlon tells me I'm wrong)

[The Vorlon]

as specific as you can be, what demographic group supports bush the most?   in other words, what is his base voter that will vote for him no matter what?

im guessing a southern, married, white male making in excess of 40 grand a year.

The income part is less a factor than most think actually...

"southern, married, white male making in excess of 40 grand a year."

About a 74% chance...

Give him a private sector job over 100K, get him to church regularly, and make him pro-life and you are up to about a 94% chance..

There is a relationship between income and voting, but no where near as strong as people think actually!

Those with a family income in excess of $75,000 voted 52/46 for Bush in 2000, for example.  - A "solid win" but not crushing by any means.

Even 100K + only went 54/43 for Bush

Family income between 20 and 40K went for Gore, but only by 51/45 - again, hardly "crushing"

Those under 20K went 63/33 to Gore, but they only make up 10% of the electorate.

A few semi- random stats:

White Males -  60/36 for Bush
White Females - 49/48 for Bush

Prediction - Who ever wins white females in 2004 wins the election.

Married People went Bush 53/44
Single people went 57/38 for Gore

(This is why the LA Times polls are so %^$#ed BTW - they structurally massive over sample single people)

Regular church goers voted 63/36 Bush

White regular church goers broke 70/30 for Bush

People who never go to church voted 61/32 for Gore

The Religious right voted 80/18 For Bush

Hard core Pro choice people voted 70/25 for Gore
Hard core pro-life people voted 74/22 for Bush

Work in the public Sector 78/22 Gore
Work in in the Private sector 63/36 Bush

So...The answer to your question is:

A Pro-life married white Christian Male with Kids who works in the private sector... (many of whom do live in the south BTW)

Social issues like Church, abortion, Guns, etc are WAAAAY more powerful predictors of voting behaviior than income actually..

[elcorazon]

aha, I WAS right... I think? sort of, anyway.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What percentage of gays voted for Bush in 2000?
What % of gays do you think will vote for him in 2004?

[The Vorlon]

What percentage of gays voted for Bush in 2000?
What % of gays do you think will vote for him in 2004?

The exit polls on anything involving folks self-identifying on being gay or lesbian are very, very sketchy at best in reliability... (This type of issue just does not poll well at all)

That being said the gap was only about 70/25 for Gore among those who self identified as Gay or Lesbian in 2000.

No way to even guess at the reliability of this figure however.

[The Vorlon]

aha, I WAS right... I think? sort of, anyway.

You are correct that the God/Church/abortion thing is alot better predictor than income.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually how voter x's parents voted is an even better indicator in many cases...

[??????????]

Actually how voter x's parents voted is an even better indicator in many cases...

Most young people I know who vote, vote completely on the other end of their parents. The older people I know, mostly over 40, vote like their parents however.