French political discussion megathread: Yellow Vest Redux

[DavidB.]

Today's riot videos are tomorrow's LREM campaign material. Or better yet - tomorrow's videos of escalated riots are LREM's campaign material the day after tomorrow.

[Hash]

Details of votes on the LIOT motion:

Total: 278

RN: 88
LFI: 74
Socialist: 31
Ecolo: 22
GDR: 22
LR: 19
LIOT: 18
Non-inscrits: 4

LR votes in favour: Emmanuelle Anthoine, Jean-Yves Bony, Ian Boucard, Fabrice Brun, Dino Cinieri, Pierre Cordier, Josiane Corneloup, Vincent Descoeur, Fabien Di Filippo, Julien Dive, Francis Dubois, Pierre-Henri Dumont, Justine Gruet, Maxime Minot, Aurélien Pradié, Raphaël Schellenberger, Isabelle Valentin, Pierre Vatin, Jean-Pierre Vigier

Among LIOT deputies, only UDI deputies Pierre Morel-À-L'Huissier and Christophe Naegelen did not vote in favour. Others who hadn't signed on to the the motion, like Ardennes deputy Jean-Luc Warsmann, ended up voting in favour.

Non-inscrits votes in favour were Besse, NDA, Quatennens surprisingly joined by Habib, who had been expected not to support it.

[Zinneke]

Today's riot videos are tomorrow's LREM campaign material. Or better yet - tomorrow's videos of escalated riots are LREM's campaign material the day after tomorrow.

Hmmm I had the same sentiment re the Gillet Jaunes, but this feels much bigger and less "assorted hicks, conspiracy theorists and strasserite Le Pen-LFI" voters.

I genuinely think Macron's approvals will tank following this.

[Hash]

The RN motion got 94 votes, also a record for a motion of no confidence presented by the far-right. Besides the 88 RN and NDA, it was supported by 3 LR - Pierre Cordier, Fabien Di Filippo and Maxime Minot (who had previously publicly announced he'd vote for the RN's motion too), one Socialist - Christian Baptiste, from Guadeloupe, and one other non-inscrit, the ex-villieriste Véronique Besse.

[lfromnj]

So I am going with Macron probably used up too much political capital to go after college students next?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Today's riot videos are tomorrow's LREM campaign material. Or better yet - tomorrow's videos of escalated riots are LREM's campaign material the day after tomorrow.

A majority of French polled by Elabe supported escalating the mobilization against Macron's pension reform. In the question, it explicitly listed a bunch of radical actions (strikes, road blocks) and still a majority of French feel this way...

[Sir John Johns]

If anything, the police response has been pretty brutal with, as a few examples, testimonies of violence from policemen against demonstrators and even bystanders, the video of a homeless man being thrown on the floor and insulted by policemen or the video of a protester collapsing unconscious on the ground after having been violently punched in the head by a policeman.

There has been also the massive and indiscriminate arrests of  292 persons during a demonstration on the Place de la Concorde of which only nine may be prosecuted for illegal acts, the rest turning out to be pacific demonstrators, bystanders and even foreign teenager tourists who hence spent a night in custody for having been at the wrong place at the wrong time:

https://twitter.com/libe/status/1638219171421888526

Arrests during the demonstration on the Place de la Concorde: the embassy of Austria intervenes for freeing two teenagers.

Two Austrian minors aged 15 were ‘on a school trip’ and found themselves held in custody on Thursday evening.

Once again, there have also been many criticisms against the systematic use of the ‘kettling’ tactic by the police forces, a tactic previously used during the Yellow Jackets movement (and was blamed for having led to an escalation of violence during protests) and whose legality is unclear.

But now it is clear this is part of a strategy from Macron himself to further ignite the situation with the hope it degenerate to present himself as a bulwark of the bourgeois order against chaos and social upheaval and no matter if this further undermines democracy, trust in public institutions and destroys what remained of the ‘Republican Front’ against the RN.

The interview with two journalists he gave today at lunchtime during the news bulletin on TF1 and France 2 (the hour matters because it is mostly watched by boomer and often rural pensioners, i.e. Macron voting base) is very revealing: his first public intervention since the defeat of the non-confidence motion has been a succession of provocations and an unbelievable display of arrogance. His only regret is to not have convinced French of the necessity of the reform. He blamed the unions for not having tried to seek a compromise. He renewed his support for Borne because there is ‘no alternative majority’ in the National Assembly (but there is no majority at all, especially since the LR caucus is now totally unreliable and bridges have been burnt with the LIOT). He compared the protesters against the pension reform with the Capitol attack participants and the followers of Bolsanaro who stormed Brasilia on last January. He bragged about the power purchase of "smicards" (workers on minimum wage) which has never having increased so much since decades (he is aware about the ongoing inflation???), announced measures to force people on basic income to find a job because apparently they are lazy and made demagogic promises on an immediate replacement of teachers for the next school year (there is currently a shortage of teachers due to the stagnation of salaries and the increasingly harder working conditions).

Shockingly, it seems the presidential interview has totally failed to convince skeptics. Who could have predicted that?

https://twitter.com/LCI/status/1638611995783045120

Meanwhile, the situation is becoming more tense in the streets with blockades of ports and refineries organized by unions and fishermen (who are protesting for different reasons) launching a tractor against a police vehicle in the streets of Rennes in an apparent failed attempt to set the Parlement de Bretagne building on fire like they already did in 1994 (note that the protests of the FNSEA farmer organization usually also involve tractors but also manure and slurry but these one have always benefited from an incredible indulgence from public powers).

Big demonstrations will take place tomorrow, possibly the largest since the beginning of the movement, and there is a serious risk it will turn ugly.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If anything, the police response has been pretty brutal with, as a few examples, testimonies of violence from policemen against demonstrators and even bystanders, the video of a homeless man being thrown on the floor and insulted by policemen or the video of a protester collapsing unconscious on the ground after having been violently punched in the head by a policeman.

There has been also the massive and indiscriminate arrests of  292 persons during a demonstration on the Place de la Concorde of which only nine may be prosecuted for illegal acts, the rest turning out to be pacific demonstrators, bystanders and even foreign teenager tourists who hence spent a night in custody for having been at the wrong place at the wrong time:

https://twitter.com/libe/status/1638219171421888526

Arrests during the demonstration on the Place de la Concorde: the embassy of Austria intervenes for freeing two teenagers.

Two Austrian minors aged 15 were ‘on a school trip’ and found themselves held in custody on Thursday evening.

Once again, there have also been many criticisms against the systematic use of the ‘kettling’ tactic by the police forces, a tactic previously used during the Yellow Jackets movement (and was blamed for having led to an escalation of violence during protests) and whose legality is unclear.

But now it is clear this is part of a strategy from Macron himself to further ignite the situation with the hope it degenerate to present himself as a bulwark of the bourgeois order against chaos and social upheaval and no matter if this further undermines democracy, trust in public institutions and destroys what remained of the ‘Republican Front’ against the RN.

The interview with two journalists he gave today at lunchtime during the news bulletin on TF1 and France 2 (the hour matters because it is mostly watched by boomer and often rural pensioners, i.e. Macron voting base) is very revealing: his first public intervention since the defeat of the non-confidence motion has been a succession of provocations and an unbelievable display of arrogance. His only regret is to not have convinced French of the necessity of the reform. He blamed the unions for not having tried to seek a compromise. He renewed his support for Borne because there is ‘no alternative majority’ in the National Assembly (but there is no majority at all, especially since the LR caucus is now totally unreliable and bridges have been burnt with the LIOT). He compared the protesters against the pension reform with the Capitol attack participants and the followers of Bolsanaro who stormed Brasilia on last January. He bragged about the power purchase of "smicards" (workers on minimum wage) which has never having increased so much since decades (he is aware about the ongoing inflation???), announced measures to force people on basic income to find a job because apparently they are lazy and made demagogic promises on an immediate replacement of teachers for the next school year (there is currently a shortage of teachers due to the stagnation of salaries and the increasingly harder working conditions).

Shockingly, it seems the presidential interview has totally failed to convince skeptics. Who could have predicted that?

https://twitter.com/LCI/status/1638611995783045120
Meanwhile, the situation is becoming more tense in the streets with blockades of ports and refineries organized by unions and fishermen (who are protesting for different reasons) launching a tractor against a police vehicle in the streets of Rennes in an apparent failed attempt to set the Parlement de Bretagne building on fire like they already did in 1994 (note that the protests of the FNSEA farmer organization usually also involve tractors but also manure and slurry but these one have always benefited from an incredible indulgence from public powers).

Big demonstrations will take place tomorrow, possibly the largest since the beginning of the movement, and there is a serious risk it will turn ugly.

Is there a chance some protesters will overwhelm the guards of some government buildings or something?

[Sir John Johns]

Is there a chance some protesters will overwhelm the guards of some government buildings or something?

Well, this morning, at the end of the massive demonstration in Lorient (Morbihan, Brittany), a dozen of masked persons have thrown stones at the police station and the adjacent sous-préfecture while also attempting to torch the building by setting fire on trashcans. On one hand, this is the act of a handful of the usual extremists (black blocks from Nantes or Rennes, even if not sure) who manifest themselves at the very end of many demonstrations, as everybody else is leaving, to fight with the police and attack government buildings, banks and shops – the type of people that the unions’ security teams take care and marginalize from the demonstration to avoid things escalating and making a bad publicity for the movement (the head of the CFDT, Laurent Berger, has again called for non-violent protests this morning; the CGT has always had a more ambiguous rapport with violence).

On the other hand, this is happening in a 60,000-inhabitant town not accustomed to such violence and in a region that has been Macron’s second best-one in 2022 and where the Yellow Jackets movement wasn’t particularly strong nor violent and that is now at the spearhead of the protest with once more massive demonstrations even on the tiny islands (350 demonstrators in Groix; 250 in Le Palais; 110 in Ouessant) and blockades of the national roads or railways by protesters in places like Brest, Quimper, Vannes, Morlaix, Ploërmel, Rosporden or Carhaix.

https://twitter.com/OuestFrance_56/status/1638892596360511495

According to Ouest-France a record number of 58,000 persons demonstrated today in the sole Finistère (about 6.3% of the residing population). It seems we are heading to a record number of participants on national level as the youth is now joining the movement (with about 80 universities and high schools being blocked) as well as several unexpected categories of workers like the administrative personnel and the magistrates of the Court of Accounts.

[Sir John Johns]

https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/1638974252140613634

A total of 3.5 million of persons have demonstrated in France according to the CGT union, 1.08 million according to the Interior Ministry, during the ninth mobilization day against the pension reform, characterized by a neat rebound of the participation.

Policemen teargassed peaceful demonstrators, including families with young children, in Prades, a small commune (6,000 inhabitants) whose mayor used to be Jean Castex. There were there between 500 and 700 demonstrators. They were about 1,300 in Lodève, an impressive number for a 7,000 inhabitant commune.

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1638956775230545921

According to this Odoxa poll, 70% of French are considering the government as the main responsible for the violence that happens at the sidelines of the demonstrations.

Other items of the poll about violence in the demonstrations (agree-disagree)
- was predictable 91% - 9%
- will worsen in the upcoming days 83% - 16%
- worries you 72% - 27%
- is the only mean to be heard as the government isn’t listening to peaceful demonstrations 61% - 39%
- is unacceptable and unjustifiable 56% - 44%
- will force the government to give in like it gave in before the Yellow Jackets 39% - 60%

From the same poll:

https://twitter.com/elestrohan/status/1638884956578410496

Only 23% of the French viewers have judged Emmanuel Macron convincing yesterday.

It is the lowest level measured in regards to a presidential speech since 2018.

The wish for a continuation of the social movement (67%) has gained 6 percent points.

[Cassius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlertesInfos/status/1638990471878828034

Protestors set fire to the town hall in Bordeaux.

[Zinneke]

Thankfully their two extra years of work will pay for the reparations

[NewYorkExpress]

Starting to wonder if Macron will still be alive this time next year.

France has a long history of murdering (or attempting to murder) leaders whom the public strongly dislikes.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Starting to wonder if Macron will still be alive this time next year.

France has a long history of murdering (or attempting to murder) leaders whom the public strongly dislikes.

If De Gaulle survived May 68 Macaron will survive this.

[Sir John Johns]

Indications that the burning of the entrance of the Bordeaux city hall may actually have been the work of far-right activists, possible tied to a nationalist group of admirers of the 6 February 1934 riots and the antisemitic collaborator Robert Brasillach which has been dissolved by the Interior Ministry last month for repeated racist, xenophobic and homophobic acts of violence. The Bordeaux city hall had previously been the target of regular attacks during the Yellow Jackets movement.

Far-right extremists are also suspected of being behind the arson with a Molotov cocktail of the house of the mayor of Saint-Brévin-les-Pins (Loire-Atlantique) two days ago, in a criminal act totally unrelated to the protests against the pension reform. The DVD mayor has previously received death threats from opponents to the installation in the commune of a center for asylum seekers.

Anyway, the threat of new acts of violence during protests has led to the postponement of the visit of King Charles III in France, planned to start next Sunday. I guess the previous disaster of the last Champions’ League finale, then blamed by Gérald Darmanin on Liverpool supporters – a version of the facts now dismissed after a report pointing instead the responsibility of the UEFA and the French Interior Ministry – has led the British government to not trust the guarantees from the French government that everything will be OK. A dinner between Macron and Charles should have take place in the castle of Versailles, surely no longer a good idea considering the current situation.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1639239890809536513?s=20

[lfromnj]

Funnily enough the last time Russia had actual mass protests was during pension reform

[oldtimer]

Starting to wonder if Macron will still be alive this time next year.

France has a long history of murdering (or attempting to murder) leaders whom the public strongly dislikes.

It's not a revolution until the Presidential Palace has been stormed and a provisional government has formed.

[oldtimer]

Starting to wonder if Macron will still be alive this time next year.

France has a long history of murdering (or attempting to murder) leaders whom the public strongly dislikes.

If De Gaulle survived May 68 Macaron will survive this.

DeGaulle had fled to West Germany at that time and contempated forming a government in exile.
But the French Communist Party was against a revolution as DeGaulle was anti-american, so the riots where crushed before it became a revolution.

[Harlow]

lol

https://twitter.com/RadioGenova/status/1639187461577363456

(a Macron spokesperson apparently said the watch was more like $3000, but still such an unforced error)

[Zinneke]

He should have taken it off, looked at the camera and said "you see this watch? you see it? this watch cost more than your car" in a New Jersey accent...he gives off very estate agent vibes to me, physically speaking, in the sense that I want to deck him.

[Sir John Johns]

https://twitter.com/dumontherium/status/1639723862928547840

Ifop poll for Le JDD in case of early legislative elections:
RN 26% (against 19.2% in June 2022)
NUPES 26% (against 26.3%)
Renaissance 22% (against 26.9%)
LR 10% (against 11.4%)
Reconquête 5% (against 4.3%)

“They [the presidential majority] are left on just one leg: the one of France which doesn’t work”, sums up Frédéric Dabi, general director Opinion de l’Ifop.

What a disillusion for the 2017 ‘candidate of the work’.

The excerpt from the JDD article is also indicating that the Macronist majority would lost between 30 and 40 seats and that the Macronist vote is at just 12% with under 35 and the strongest (31%) with persons aged over 65.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Would someone more versed in European politics than NewYorkExpress say if a real chance of Macron being killed exists?

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course there is a *chance* - quite frankly I am if anything a bit surprised that at least attempted assassinations on politicians aren't rather more common than they actually are.

I think that most French would settle for him quitting in disgrace, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Would someone more versed in European politics than NewYorkExpress say if a real chance of Macron being killed exists?

It doesn't. There is currently no threat to the rule of law in France whatsoever. The level of violence is still far below the BLM riots from 2020 (and even below the Yellow Vest protests from 2019) so I'm really confused why everyone thinks we're on the brink of civil war.