Which race are Republicans more likely to win, PA-GOV or MI-GOV?

[Utah Neolib]

Mastriano IMO hasn't actually ran a particularly bad campaign, and also doesn't have to run against an incumbent. He's more likely to win.

Is posting boomer memes on Twitter a good campaign? He also hasn’t fundraisers particularly well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA if Kelley wins the Republican MI-GOV primary. MI if anyone else, namely Dixon or Rinke, does.

Have you seen the polls in both MI and PA the Rs are done in both States

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mastriano IMO hasn't actually ran a particularly bad campaign, and also doesn't have to run against an incumbent. He's more likely to win.

He's losing ANYWAYS

Speak the truth!

[Lechasseur]

I predicted that the Democrats would win both races, and I never seriously doubted they'd lose either. However, it was pretty obvious that the GOP had a far better shot in MI than in PA.

I would have rated MI as Lean Dem and PA as Likely Dem but Closer to Safe than to Lean.

That being said, PA I believe is better terrain for the GOP than MI. The huge difference in ranking was due to Josh Shapiro being an exceptionally good candidate and Mastriano an exceptionally Bad one. Had both parties nominated average candidates in PA, I suspect the race would have been fairly close, definitely more so than in MI.

[DaleCooper]

PA, bite me.

They're both pretty similar, but Josh Shapiro is the single most overrated candidate this cycle thus far. He's a very partisan Dem who has very little demonstrated crossover appeal, overperforming Biden by 3 against a poorly known opponent. In addition, Tom Wolf is even more unpopular than Whitmer is right now, and he's served alongside him and has to defend his record. It's just not realistic to think he's going to do much better than Whitmer.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano IMO hasn't actually ran a particularly bad campaign, and also doesn't have to run against an incumbent. He's more likely to win.