Would you accept this deal?
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  Would you accept this deal?
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Author Topic: Would you accept this deal?  (Read 649 times)
Dr. MB
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« on: May 09, 2022, 06:17:46 PM »

1. The Russian Federation is no more. A few large independent states succeed it with a much reduced rump Russia centered around Moscow. Some smaller regions such as Chechnya and Tuva also secede. Vladimir Putin is removed from power.
2. The People’s Republic of China collapses and the Communist Party is removed from power. China is split into three or four countries of roughly equal population. Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang become independent. Taiwan is recognized as a fully sovereign state.
3. The United States also splits up. Large states such as California and Texas leave on their own while smaller ones group up in order to form a few successor countries. Alaska and Maine decide to join Canada. The Democratic and Republican Parties both dissolve in the midst.
4. The United Kingdom breaks up, leaving England alone while Scotland and Wales become independent and Northern Ireland reunites with Ireland.

The end result? No country can be called a superpower. There are a large number of freshly independent states who need to find their destiny. The world is changed but is it for the better or for the worse?
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2022, 06:28:07 PM »

I don't see why a rump Russia or China wouldn't simply invade their neighbors to reform their empires.  Also all the east coast blue states (Virginia on up) would simply reform to create a new America centered in Washington DC with the Pentagon and the military-industrial complex, as well as the cultural and financial powerhouse that is NYC, still intact, which would be a global superpower.  Similarly CA/OR/WA/NV would most likely agree to form one country that would also be a global economic and cultural superpower.

The UK question is less important, but neither Wales nor Northern Ireland has ever expressed any significant desire to leave the UK.  Support for unification with England remains at around 70-80% in both countries.  Only Scotland has a significant independence movement.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2022, 06:31:44 PM »

The UK question is less important, but neither Wales nor Northern Ireland has ever expressed any significant desire to leave the UK.  Support for unification with England remains at around 70-80% in both countries.  Only Scotland has a significant independence movement.

https://www.thejournal.ie/lord-ashcroft-irish-unification-poll-4804372-Sep2019/

Also Sinn Fein winning the latest elections? What a weird thing to say
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2022, 06:54:06 PM »

The UK question is less important, but neither Wales nor Northern Ireland has ever expressed any significant desire to leave the UK.  Support for unification with England remains at around 70-80% in both countries.  Only Scotland has a significant independence movement.

https://www.thejournal.ie/lord-ashcroft-irish-unification-poll-4804372-Sep2019/

Also Sinn Fein winning the latest elections? What a weird thing to say

Oh huh, I haven't gotten any updates on the independence movements since Brexit so didn't realize that had impacted Northern Irish opinion so much.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2022, 11:27:36 PM »

Biggest winners from this state of affairs enduring: Japan, India, European Union, Brazil
Biggest losers: Pakistan and North Korea (loss of allies), the countries that get split up, and Nepal (which now would be on track to become an Indian client state due to lack of a counterweight).
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progressive85
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2022, 12:07:55 AM »

I guess the historical trend from the 19th to 20th to 21st centuries is towards more local control and sovereignty instead of centralized control by world powers and massive nation states.

I also think the United States may be too big to function best... maybe it should have been more like Europe is now, where the states are individual countries and we all have the same currency and easy travel in between but that's really it.  That's kind of what we are now - this country is not unified at all.
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dead0man
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2022, 12:31:10 AM »

Who gets the US military (and to a lesser extent, Russia and China's)?  If everything is perfectly evenly divided and our treat obligations (NATO mostly, but we have many nation specific ones too) are kept, then I wouldn't mind this.

I'm more than willing to be convinced otherwise though.
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2022, 12:34:20 AM »

No. How about just Russia and China break apart while the US grows?
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2022, 01:02:03 AM »

China actually has a GDP over 4 times as large as Japan, so it doesn't matter how you split it into 3 or 4 countries, they would comprise the largest 1-3 economies in the world. The largest non Chinese economies would be Japan, Germany, California, India, and France.

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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2022, 07:35:30 AM »

Who gets the US military (and to a lesser extent, Russia and China's)?  If everything is perfectly evenly divided and our treat obligations (NATO mostly, but we have many nation specific ones too) are kept, then I wouldn't mind this.

I'm more than willing to be convinced otherwise though.

Basically this. The world needs powerful and cooperative actors for liberal democracy, but it does have merits if china and russia are broken up. India might become a problem though.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2022, 12:38:42 PM »

Most likely. Punxstawney Phil's estimation of which countries would benefit and which would get harmed doesn't exactly hurt the deal's case, either.

Biggest winners from this state of affairs enduring: Japan, India, European Union, Brazil
Biggest losers: Pakistan and North Korea (loss of allies), the countries that get split up, and Nepal (which now would be on track to become an Indian client state due to lack of a counterweight).
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2022, 10:52:20 PM »

Yes.
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AverageFoodEnthusiast
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2022, 11:31:32 PM »

As long as the Komi Republic becomes a haven for political radicals, I'll say yes.
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Pericles
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2022, 11:48:48 PM »

The UK question is less important, but neither Wales nor Northern Ireland has ever expressed any significant desire to leave the UK.  Support for unification with England remains at around 70-80% in both countries.  Only Scotland has a significant independence movement.

https://www.thejournal.ie/lord-ashcroft-irish-unification-poll-4804372-Sep2019/

Also Sinn Fein winning the latest elections? What a weird thing to say

People overrate that tbf, I think GMAC's poll numbers are accurate in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein didn't win the election, they were the largest party. They just ended up there without gaining many votes because the DUP collapsed. So that is significant but it's not some wave of enthusiasm for a united Ireland.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2022, 12:00:14 AM »

The UK question is less important, but neither Wales nor Northern Ireland has ever expressed any significant desire to leave the UK.  Support for unification with England remains at around 70-80% in both countries.  Only Scotland has a significant independence movement.

https://www.thejournal.ie/lord-ashcroft-irish-unification-poll-4804372-Sep2019/

Also Sinn Fein winning the latest elections? What a weird thing to say

People overrate that tbf, I think GMAC's poll numbers are accurate in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein didn't win the election, they were the largest party. They just ended up there without gaining many votes because the DUP collapsed. So that is significant but it's not some wave of enthusiasm for a united Ireland.
Click the link I posted. Poll results show more or less a dead heat.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2022, 12:27:42 PM »

Would I accept a destabilized world on the path to nuclear annihilation? No.
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Archon
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« Reply #16 on: May 14, 2022, 03:37:46 PM »

No

1. I like it
2. I like this really but I personally woudl also add Inner Mongolia joining Mongolia too.
3. Even tho I think things are looking really bad for the US, I hope this wont happen at all.
4. Not at all. Just no. RULE BRITANNIA!

And also what you said about the end result that no superpower would exist is not feasible in my opinion. A superpower will always exist. If it isn't US, UK, Russia, China, France etc. then someone else will replace them. That is just inevitable.
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