SCOTUS overturns Roe megathread (pg 53 - confirmed)

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1567531436219027456

The Dobbs bump actually doesn't look that big in the polling, it's the special elections where it stands out.

And this doesn't even include Peltola's victory.

[Hermit For Peace]

1. The Michigan Supreme Court has put the pro-choice amendment on the ballot, overruling the 2R/2D commission that deadlocked.  Importantly for any future election disputes where this board deadlocks, it was a 5/2 decision, with 4 of the 5 having terms that extend beyond the 2024 election. 

2. The total abortion ban failed in South Carolina because a Republican state senator filibustered it.  They had a majority but not enough votes to end the filibuster.  They are instead passing updates to the 6 week ban that they hope will end the judicial challenge to it.  The limit would be extended to 12 weeks in cases of rape or incest.  This is quite surprising to me since the total ban still passed in Indiana right after the Kansas vote.   

This is important because a dialogue has been opened up, and negotiations are taking place. At least they are addressing the issue of abortion a tad more sanely. No, not enough but the seeds are taking place.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Once a 'quintessential pro-life Texan,' she had to flee her home state to get an abortion

I recommend reading the whole article. 

[Person Man]

Once a 'quintessential pro-life Texan,' she had to flee her home state to get an abortion

I recommend reading the whole article. 

This is the type of sh**t that caused the Floyd riots and 1/6.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FWIW the Governor of Michigan can remove members of the canvassing board and appoint new ones so if this sh!t continues I would expect Whitmer to step in. She can't change the partisan makeup so she'd have to appoint Republicans to replace them but could probably find ones that wouldn't do that. I also believe it can only be done "with cause" but there's definitely valid cause here and i bet the Michigan Supreme Court would uphold that with their rulings so far.

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW the Governor of Michigan can remove members of the canvassing board and appoint new ones so if this sh!t continues I would expect Whitmer to step in. She can't change the partisan makeup so she'd have to appoint Republicans to replace them but could probably find ones that wouldn't do that. I also believe it can only be done "with cause" but there's definitely valid cause here and i bet the Michigan Supreme Court would uphold that with their rulings so far.

The party committees submit names to her.  If they send her only people who believe every win for the left in Michigan in recent memory was fake, she has to pick one of them.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/AliceOllstein/status/1569494296998383618

Do they WANT to lose the midterms?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AliceOllstein/status/1569494296998383618
Do they WANT to lose the midterms?

The DSCC should report this as an in-kind contribution.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/AliceOllstein/status/1569494296998383618
Do they WANT to lose the midterms?

The DSCC should report this as an in-kind contribution.

A federal 15 week limit is likely to be quite popular, provided that it's the same nationwide and not a maximum.  I imagine this is written as a maximum to protect the red state total bans?

Also keep in mind that it's unclear if federal abortion legislation would even be constitutional given how much the commerce clause interpretation has narrowed in recent years.  My understanding is that the original partial birth abortion ban was never challenged under the commerce clause because the left didn't want to risk a ruling that narrowed the definition of interstate commerce.  Among the conservative justices, at a minimum, I don't think Gorsuch believes abortion is interstate commerce.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/AliceOllstein/status/1569494296998383618
Do they WANT to lose the midterms?

The DSCC should report this as an in-kind contribution.

A federal 15 week limit is likely to be quite popular, provided that it's the same nationwide and not a maximum.  I imagine this is written as a maximum to protect the red state total bans?

Also keep in mind that it's unclear if federal abortion legislation would even be constitutional given how much the commerce clause interpretation has narrowed in recent years.  My understanding is that the original partial birth abortion ban was never challenged under the commerce clause because the left didn't want to risk a ruling that narrowed the definition of interstate commerce.  Among the conservative justices, at a minimum, I don't think Gorsuch believes abortion is interstate commerce.

The last things Republicans should want to be doing right now is talking more about abortion. It doesn't matter if this particular bill is something the public would accept or not, they are setting themselves up for a discussion of "should abortion be banned nationwide" and that is incredibly dangerous territory for them.

This is the sort of counterproductive messaging bill I would normally expect out of congressional Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/AliceOllstein/status/1569494296998383618
Do they WANT to lose the midterms?

The DSCC should report this as an in-kind contribution.

A federal 15 week limit is likely to be quite popular, provided that it's the same nationwide and not a maximum.  I imagine this is written as a maximum to protect the red state total bans?

Also keep in mind that it's unclear if federal abortion legislation would even be constitutional given how much the commerce clause interpretation has narrowed in recent years.  My understanding is that the original partial birth abortion ban was never challenged under the commerce clause because the left didn't want to risk a ruling that narrowed the definition of interstate commerce.  Among the conservative justices, at a minimum, I don't think Gorsuch believes abortion is interstate commerce.

The last things Republicans should want to be doing right now is talking more about abortion. It doesn't matter if this particular bill is something the public would accept or not, they are setting themselves up for a discussion of "should abortion be banned nationwide" and that is incredibly dangerous territory for them.

This is the sort of counterproductive messaging bill I would normally expect out of congressional Democrats.

Oh, I totally agree with your point re: bringing it up this year.  I just think 15 weeks is close to what the long run "deal" between the parties will be if federal abortion laws are held to be constitutional.  Republicans underperforming this year would be part of what leads to that deal in a few years.

[Sestak]

A federal 15 week limit is likely to be quite popular,

Can we stop parroting this stupid line yet? Literally every indication we have had over the past three months indicates that, no, when push comes to shove, people are not all happy at this type of outcome.

[Ferguson97]

A federal 15 week limit is likely to be quite popular,

Can we stop parroting this stupid line yet? Literally every indication we have had over the past three months indicates that, no, when push comes to shove, people are not all happy at this type of outcome.

I don't know why conservatives can't get this through their heads: people were content with the status-quo of Roe and don't like thinking about the topic of abortion. Pushing for a national ban after x weeks is a terrible move politically. It doesn't matter if x is 6 weeks, 15 weeks, or 35 weeks. They don't want to think about it!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

15 weeks is roughly on par with what France has, Republicans just need to stress that.

[Ferguson97]

15 weeks is roughly on par with what France has, Republicans just need to stress that.

Who do you expect this argument to persuade?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/AliceOllstein/status/1569494296998383618
Do they WANT to lose the midterms?

The DSCC should report this as an in-kind contribution.

A federal 15 week limit is likely to be quite popular, provided that it's the same nationwide and not a maximum.  I imagine this is written as a maximum to protect the red state total bans?

Also keep in mind that it's unclear if federal abortion legislation would even be constitutional given how much the commerce clause interpretation has narrowed in recent years.  My understanding is that the original partial birth abortion ban was never challenged under the commerce clause because the left didn't want to risk a ruling that narrowed the definition of interstate commerce.  Among the conservative justices, at a minimum, I don't think Gorsuch believes abortion is interstate commerce.

But it’s not.

[Person Man]

15 weeks is roughly on par with what France has, Republicans just need to stress that.

Maybe a 20-22 week ban would fly nationally and a 15 week ban could probably be popular in an average state of abortion were protected until 12-15.

[7,052,770]

Most Democrats would agree to a 15 week national ban if no state were allowed to have any restrictions or bans earlier than that, and also prevented the gotchas like hallway widths, mandatory waiting periods, etc.

But obviously almost no Republicans would agree to that, and that is not remotely similar to what Graham is proposing here.

[7,052,770]

15 weeks is roughly on par with what France has, Republicans just need to stress that.

Does France let its provinces set earlier limits and outright bans, or is it a straight 15 everywhere?

[Person Man]

Most Democrats would agree to a 15 week national ban if no state were allowed to have any restrictions or bans earlier than that, and also prevented the gotchas like hallway widths, mandatory waiting periods, etc.

But obviously almost no Republicans would agree to that, and that is not remotely similar to what Graham is proposing here.

That would actually be the most popular policy. A nationwide legalization/banning(15 weeks) that permits abortion to a reasonable limit and then still allows for it if the pregnancy is futile or dangerous. Maybe some sort of parental notification but no TRAP laws or extreme insurance restrictions. Maybe a weakening but not an outright repeal of Hyde.

This is what the most normal person wants but yeah. There’s no discernible path to this outcome.

[Person Man]

15 weeks is roughly on par with what France has, Republicans just need to stress that.

Who do you expect this argument to persuade?

I have to agree. I think it's disappointing at times, but Americans hate being told they should do as other countries do.

I think everyone knew the states' rights on abortion argument was nonsense. People fall back on it when they want to evade national policy, don't have the political power to enact their own, or (most generously) want to avoid a divisive fight on some extreme controversy. In terms of politics, this is something the liberals can use to point out the reactionaries won't abide by their own rhetoric. I'm a severe pessimist at times, but this feels like an error that strengthens the Dems.

In terms of history and national unity, people are going to be drawing parallels (which many will argue are in poor taste) between this and the Fugitive Slave Act. In 1850, the nation's reactionaries abandoned their now laughable claims of states' rights to force the Free States to participate in slavery. It radicalized countless northerners. I can't know quite how history will look back on the abortion debate's role in America's story, but the starkest distinction is that the issue's radicalization effect is bidirectional. Defenders of slavery just had hate and wealth, but this debate divides the country into "baby killers" and "forced birthers."

In terms of blame, anti-tax oligarchs and evangelical con-men used Fox and Facebook to radicalize large swathes of the electorate. That Republican Party deliberately created a court of Taneys that legalized bribery and is fawning over Putinist dictatorship as an alternative to the electorate considering ending the Reagan era. More of America is being radicalized in turn, but it's not a mystery who caused this polarization or why.

Honestly, it contextualizes Joe Manchin's off brand, equally doomed Henry Clay-ing.

I can do better. people who think child murder should be legal and people who believe the government is supposed to rape people .

[Sir Mohamed]

Graham is at it again.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1569532700284837891

From the article

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) will announce plans for a new bill on national abortion restrictions Tuesday.

Driving the news: That's according to an email from Graham's office on Monday night saying he will hold a press conference with anti-abortion leaders on the introduction of the Protecting Pain-Capable Unborn Children from Late-Term Abortions Act.

...

https://twitter.com/CAKitchener/status/1569499757902700544

[The Dowager Mod]

"States Rights" LOL.

[Ferguson97]

The states rights argument has always been nonsense. “Yeah I think abortion is murdering a baby, but I’m totally cool if California makes it legal, I swear!”

Either your lying about thinking abortion is murder or you’re lying about thinking it should be left up to the states.

[Person Man]

"States Rights" LOL.

A State's right to what?