Angolan 2022 general election (24 August)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

Ironic that during the Civil war in the 1980s and 1990s MPLA was strong in the urban coastal areas while UNITA was strong in inland rural areas.  It now seems to be reversed.

Massive poverty and unemployment is eroding MPLA's support in urban areas. Plus, almost 60% of Angola's population is bellow 25 years old and they live, in their majority, in urban areas.

Luanda is seen as being among the richest cities in Africa, or so I've heard. But that status masks massive amounts of urban poverty and the fact that most people in the city live in utter squalor.
That's probably boosting the UNITA vote here.

[jaichind]

Luanda is seen as being among the richest cities in Africa, or so I've heard. But that status masks massive amounts of urban poverty and the fact that most people in the city live in utter squalor.
That's probably boosting the UNITA vote here.

I think that wealth is mostly about a small exclusive area filled with local and foreign oil executives.  I suspect the vast majority of the city's population is not sharing in this oil wealth.

[jaichind]

Given that Luanda count is lower than the overall count it seems UNITA's vote share will only rise from here.  They will not win but their vote share will be a record for them and break the ~40% vote they got in 1992.

[Mike88]

Luanda is seen as being among the richest cities in Africa, or so I've heard. But that status masks massive amounts of urban poverty and the fact that most people in the city live in utter squalor.
That's probably boosting the UNITA vote here.

Yes, Luanda is a very expensive city and that status masks a complete lack of infrastructures from roads, hospitals, sewage systems and job opportunities, among others. Several "businesses" that the Eduardo dos Santos clan made in Luanda were to build modern high-rise skyscrapers and luxury resorts in the city. Some, however, didn't went ahead.

[Mike88]

Given that Luanda count is lower than the overall count it seems UNITA's vote share will only rise from here.  They will not win but their vote share will be a record for them and break the ~40% vote they got in 1992.

That seems plausible and the results match almost that "poll" that TPA announced yesterday's evening. However, these results are a disaster for MPLA, even though there are doubts about their reliability. MPLA lost their 2/3 majority and could even win a majority just by a "hair". Like I said in previous posts, if this election had a decent coverage and opportunities for both sides, MPLA would lose.

[Mike88]

Ballots by party: (86.41% reporting)

2,872,603 MPLA
2,370,543 UNITA
     65,208 PRS
     59,082 FNLA
     56,531 PHA
     40,757 CASA-CE
     26,930 APN
     23,672 P-NJANGO

5,515,326 Total

Source: https://twitter.com/infogovao/status/1562760146018635781

Not sure how many ballots are yet to be reported from Luanda or from the rest of the country.

[Mike88]

A few clashes between protesters and police are being reported in the streets of Luanda:

https://twitter.com/wamadjiwanna_/status/1562754579946938368

According to CNN Portugal, a spontaneous protest erupted in the streets of downtown Luanda but it was received bu robber bullets and tear gas by the police.

UNITA is set to have another press conference during this afternoon, and I heard on TVI, if I recall correctly, that CNE is expected to release the final results at around 8pm this evening. We'll see.

[Mike88]

TPA seat projection with the current 86.41% counted:

After minute 16:28.

115 MPLA (-35)
  95 UNITA (+44)
    3 PRS (+1)
    2 CASA-CE (-14)
    2 FNLA (+1)
    2 PHA (new)
    1 APN (+1)
    1 P-NJANGO (new)

[Mike88]

Official results page from CNE:

https://resultados2022eleicoesgerais.cne.ao/resultados/0

Cabinda is the place with the lowest vote reporting: just 21.7%. Here, MPLA leads UNITA by just 95 votes. Maybe 128,000 ballots to be reported.

In Luanda, looking at the turnout and the number of precincts yet to report, I would say around 500,000 ballots are yet to be released.

In Bié, 13% is yet to be counted, maybe around 50,000 ballots. In Huíla, 12% is yet to be counted, around 60,000 ballots. In Cuando Cubango, 11% is out, around 15,000 ballots. In Moxico, 10% is also out, around 21,000 ballots and in Uíge, around 37,000 ballots are out there. In the rest of provinces, 95%+ of votes are now tabulated.

It's also surprising how low turnout is being, just 46%.

[Mike88]

New CNE results update starting right now.

[jaichind]

TPA seat projection with the current 86.41% counted:


115 MPLA (-35)
  95 UNITA (+44)
    3 PRS (+1)
    2 CASA-CE (-14)
    2 FNLA (+1)
    2 PHA (new)
    1 APN (+1)
    1 P-NJANGO (new)

Looks like MPLA underperformance of last pre-election poll

[jaichind]

Official results page from CNE:

https://resultados2022eleicoesgerais.cne.ao/resultados/0

Cabinda is the place with the lowest vote reporting: just 21.7%. Here, MPLA leads UNITA by just 95 votes. Maybe 128,000 ballots to be reported.

In Luanda, looking at the turnout and the number of precincts yet to report, I would say around 500,000 ballots are yet to be released.

In Bié, 13% is yet to be counted, maybe around 50,000 ballots. In Huíla, 12% is yet to be counted, around 60,000 ballots. In Cuando Cubango, 11% is out, around 15,000 ballots. In Moxico, 10% is also out, around 21,000 ballots and in Uíge, around 37,000 ballots are out there. In the rest of provinces, 95%+ of votes are now tabulated.

It's also surprising how low turnout is being, just 46%.

By region there is a negative correlation between the 1992 and 2022 UNITA vote

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TPA seat projection with the current 86.41% counted:


115 MPLA (-35)
  95 UNITA (+44)
    3 PRS (+1)
    2 CASA-CE (-14)
    2 FNLA (+1)
    2 PHA (new)
    1 APN (+1)
    1 P-NJANGO (new)

Looks like MPLA underperformance of last pre-election poll

Last-minute deciders going for UNITA, from the looks of it. The situation on economic problems and desire for some change among some in the electorate must have weighed on their minds pretty heavily.

[Mike88]

New CNE results update starting right now.

97.03% reporting:

51.1% MPLA, 124 seats
44.1% UNITA, 90
  1.1% PRS, 2
  1.0% FNLA, 2
  1.0% PHA, 2
  0.8% CASA-CE, 0
  0.5% APN, 0
  0.4% P-NJANGO, 0

[Logical]

TPA seat projection with the current 86.41% counted:


115 MPLA (-35)
  95 UNITA (+44)
    3 PRS (+1)
    2 CASA-CE (-14)
    2 FNLA (+1)
    2 PHA (new)
    1 APN (+1)
    1 P-NJANGO (new)

Looks like MPLA underperformance of last pre-election poll

Last-minute deciders going for UNITA, from the looks of it. The situation on economic problems and desire for some change among some in the electorate must have weighed on their minds pretty heavily.

One should never discount the possibility of electoral rigging in countries like this. The opaque counting process makes it all the more suspect.

[Mike88]

Popular vote: 97.03% counted

3,162,801 MPLA
2,727,885 UNITA
     70,398 PRS
     65,223 FNLA
     63,002 PHA
     46,750 CASA-CE
     29,740 APN
     26,268 P-NJANGO

6,192,067 Total

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TPA seat projection with the current 86.41% counted:


115 MPLA (-35)
  95 UNITA (+44)
    3 PRS (+1)
    2 CASA-CE (-14)
    2 FNLA (+1)
    2 PHA (new)
    1 APN (+1)
    1 P-NJANGO (new)

Looks like MPLA underperformance of last pre-election poll

Last-minute deciders going for UNITA, from the looks of it. The situation on economic problems and desire for some change among some in the electorate must have weighed on their minds pretty heavily.

One should never discount the possibility of electoral rigging in countries like this. The opaque counting process makes it all the more suspect.

I don't disagree, at least here. But then that raises the question - why would they let their majority get so small? Especially with the slow vote count. It would be easy to inflate that margin and make it more comfortable if they wanted, right? Instead of, say, MPLA with a mere 52-53% of seats.

[Mike88]

One should never discount the possibility of electoral rigging in countries like this. The opaque counting process makes it all the more suspect.

I don't disagree, at least here. But then that raises the question - why would they let their majority get so small? Especially with the slow vote count. It would be easy to inflate that margin and make it more comfortable if they wanted, right? Instead of, say, MPLA with a mere 52-53% of seats.

Vote rigging may have occurred, when results are announced like this, it's complicated to see if they 100% reliable. However, like I said in posts above, there was election fraud in the way that MPLA basically forbid opposition campaign events to be broadcast and publish in the media, so the opposition had never an equal ground with the government party. MPLA, with all of this control and hold of institutions, winning just 51% is a victory is a big, big setback, to say the least.

[jaichind]

New CNE results update starting right now.

97.03% reporting:

51.1% MPLA, 124 seats
44.1% UNITA, 90
  1.1% PRS, 2
  1.0% FNLA, 2
  1.0% PHA, 2
  0.8% CASA-CE, 0
  0.5% APN, 0
  0.4% P-NJANGO, 0

At this stage I assume almost all the outstanding votes are going to be in Luanda so you figure MPLA will be below 51% but above 50% when it is all said and done.

[Mike88]

New CNE results update starting right now.

97.03% reporting:

51.1% MPLA, 124 seats
44.1% UNITA, 90
  1.1% PRS, 2
  1.0% FNLA, 2
  1.0% PHA, 2
  0.8% CASA-CE, 0
  0.5% APN, 0
  0.4% P-NJANGO, 0

At this stage I assume almost all the outstanding votes are going to be in Luanda so you figure MPLA will be below 51% but above 50% when it is all said and done.

Maybe, the electoral page has frozen and doesn't have the new updates yet. Also, I believe it was you that said this election was similar to the Zimbabwe 2018, well, the results literally mirror each other:

Angola 2022:

51.1% MPLA
44.1% UNITA

Zimbabwe 2018:

51.4% ZANU–PF
45.1% MDC–T

[jaichind]

Maybe the low MPLA vote share is a way for the MPLA to signal to the opposition parties, especially UNITA, the following: OK, please let us be in charge for 5 more years without a fuss. We are going to be reasonable and make sure you get a share of the loot instead of us hogging everything.  And 5 years from now we promise to give you a real shot a winning,

[jaichind]

New CNE results update starting right now.

97.03% reporting:

51.1% MPLA, 124 seats
44.1% UNITA, 90
  1.1% PRS, 2
  1.0% FNLA, 2
  1.0% PHA, 2
  0.8% CASA-CE, 0
  0.5% APN, 0
  0.4% P-NJANGO, 0

At this stage I assume almost all the outstanding votes are going to be in Luanda so you figure MPLA will be below 51% but above 50% when it is all said and done.

Maybe, the electoral page has frozen and doesn't have the new updates yet. Also, I believe it was you that said this election was similar to the Zimbabwe 2018, well, the results literally mirror each other:

Angola 2022:

51.1% MPLA
44.1% UNITA

Zimbabwe 2018:

51.4% ZANU–PF
45.1% MDC–T

And there is a similar, but not the same, dynamic between Lourenço and  dos Santos when compared to Mnangagwa and  Mugabe

[Mike88]

At this stage I assume almost all the outstanding votes are going to be in Luanda so you figure MPLA will be below 51% but above 50% when it is all said and done.

Luanda still has 6% out there, maybe 140,000 ballots, UNITA could still close the gap yet.

Maybe the low MPLA vote share is a way for the MPLA to signal to the opposition parties, especially UNITA, the following: OK, please let us be in charge for 5 more years without a fuss. We are going to be reasonable and make sure you get a share of the loot instead of us hogging everything.  And 5 years from now we promise to give you a real shot a winning,

We'll have to see, but I'm not 100% sure that MPLA will understand what happened in this election. They still have a majority and their reaction is that they have a confortable majority to govern "without constraints". This is not the best thing to say after a very close election like this one. UNITA is silent right now, as the party is conducting their own counting and is maybe wanting to finalize it and then react. So, this could take a while.

[Mike88]

Another interesting data: Since 2008, MPLA has lost around 10% of votes in each election:

2008: 81.6%
2012: 71.8% (-9.8%)
2017: 61.1% (-10.7%)
2022: 51.1% (-10.0% provisional)

UNITA 2008-2022:

2008: 10.4%
2012: 18.7% (+8.3%)
2017: 26.7% (+8.0%)
2022: 44.1% (+17.4% provisional)

[Former President tack50]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

Ironic that during the Civil war in the 1980s and 1990s MPLA was strong in the urban coastal areas while UNITA was strong in inland rural areas.  It now seems to be reversed.

Massive poverty and unemployment is eroding MPLA's support in urban areas. Plus, almost 60% of Angola's population is bellow 25 years old and they live, in their majority, in urban areas.

The comparison is probably non-sensical but I wonder if, while still not free or fair, the election may have been "less rigged" in urban areas for a variety if reasons (like say, lower illiteracy levels, or perhaps less corrupt local politicians and powerbrokers?)