Angolan 2022 general election (24 August)

[Mike88]

Starting a new thread about this election.

Angola, of course, is not a total democratic country, to say the least, but this year's election could be a major event. Th economic and social situation in Angola is quite dire and there's a lot of anger towards MPLA and President João Lourenço because of economic mismanagement, growing poverty and corruption. Polls, if they are even reliable, show a massive swing against MPLA and in favour of UNITA, the rightwing opposition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Angolan_general_election

An election date is still to be announced, but it's expected that the election will be held during August.

[ottermax]

How likely is a peaceful transfer of power in Angola? It is challenging to get English language news about events there.

[Mike88]

How likely is a peaceful transfer of power in Angola? It is challenging to get English language news about events there.

I would say it's very difficult for a peaceful transfer of power to happen, I mean, UNITA and MPLA forces were involved in a bloody civil war for more than 25 years, and right now, MPLA controls everything in the country, from media to election officials.

I found some articles, in English, about Angola's current situation:

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/angolas-coming-elections/

https://africanarguments.org/2022/03/angola-regime-is-scared-elections/

[PSOL]

I have a feeling that the MPLA might just be unable to hold onto power as they’ve been too divided lately.

[Mike88]

I have a feeling that the MPLA might just be unable to hold onto power as they’ve been too divided lately.

Yes, MPLA is divided mainly because of José Eduardo dos Santos and his family's shady and corrupt deals when he was President. Eduardo dos Santos is protected from any kind of investigations as he was given the title of "Emeritus President", but the same doesn't apply to his family, mainly his daughter Isabel dos Santos. Ms Santos, who I like to call the "Happy Widow" , is being investigated by Angolan authorities for shady deals she made when her father was President and that made Angola's State lose billions of dollars. She is also being investigated by other countries, Portugal and the Netherlands, for shady deals in these countries. Isabel dos Santos accuses the current President of persecuting her and that he wants to destroy her.

The fact that she's the daughter of Eduardo dos Santos, created tensions within MPLA, and during a long period, Eduardo dos Santos was actually living in Barcelona due to medical reasons. He returned to Angola last year, and since then has tried to cool the tension between his family and João Lourenço, and possibly amend the tensions within the party. However, I'm skeptical that these divisions have an impact. I think the disappointment with Lourenço himself is a much bigger issue.

[jaichind]

Afrobarometer poll (change from similar poll in 2019)

MPLA    29% (-7%)
UNITA   22% (+9%)

UNITA seems to be catching up

[Mike88]

In the meantime, the Angolan government proposes a law regarding polling:

On the eve of the general elections, the Executive proposed to the National Assembly the discussion of the Law on Polls and Opinion Surveys in which, among other lines, it stipulates the amount of 15 million kwanzas as the minimum share capital for the incorporation of companies linked to opinion polls. The polls will be required to go through the Executive's "analysis" before publication.

In the document under discussion since Monday, the 9th, the Executive intends to transform the proposal into a Law to place limits and norms on companies linked to this type of research, which, until now, operate freely because there is no basic legal norm.

Addressing the deputies this Monday, Manuel Homem, Minister of Telecommunications, Information Technologies and Social Communication, justifies the demand for this capital with "the need for companies to have sufficient solvency to repair possible damages to third parties."

"The carrying out of any opinion poll or survey under the terms of the draft law obeys specific rules and principles, and it is mandatory to deposit the report of the polls or opinion surveys at the ministerial department responsible for the media and at the Communication Regulatory Entity before its release", says the minister.

As for opinion polls or surveys related to general elections, the draft law defines that the report on the survey must also be sent to the National Electoral Commission.

Regardless of whether or not there is a law on the subject, the publication of polls and opinion surveys are increasingly common on digital platforms and by companies headquartered abroad. Regarding this situation, the Executive's proposal makes no reference.

Polls during the campaign and exits polls are also forbidden. UNITA is criticizing MPLA for this poll ban. The bill is set to be voted on May 18th.

[Mike88]

The election date has been announced: 24 August.

https://www.publico.pt/2022/06/03/mundo/noticia/joao-lourenco-marca-eleicoes-angola-24-agosto-2008817

10 parties/coalitions are planning to run for these elections:

- MPLA, People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (center-left to left-wing)
- UNITA, National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (center to center-right)
- CASA–CE*, Broad Convergence for the Salvation of Angola – Electoral Coalition (center-left)
- FNLA, National Front for the Liberation of Angola (center-right)
- BD, Democratic Bloc (center)
- PRS, Social Renewal Party (center-left)
- PDP-ANA, Democratic Party for the Progress of Angolan National Alliance
- APN, Patriotic National Alliance (center)
- P-JANGO, Nationalist Party for Justice in Angola
- PHA, Humanist Party of Angola (center-left)

*Electoral coalition between PADDA-AP (Support Party for Democracy and Development of Angola - Patriotic Alliance), PALMA (Angolan Majority Free Alliance Party), PPA (Angolan Pacific Party) and PNSA (National Salvation Party of Angola)

[Mike88]

Latest polling:
https://twitter.com/AfricaElect/status/1531951739800272896

Polling average since January 2022:
https://twitter.com/AfricaElect/status/1532848101668577282

[Mike88]

Former President José Eduardo dos Santos falls into a coma but his family is divided regarding turning off his life support, as the Angolan government is already planning the state funeral:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1541868328930754561

Angolan authorities are already preparing the funeral of José Eduardo dos Santos. Daughters of the former president of Angola will not want the funeral to take place in Luanda.

The Angolan authorities are already preparing the funeral of José Eduardo dos Santos. However, the daughters of the former president of Angola do not want it to take place in Luanda.

The Angolan authorities are already preparing to organize the funeral arrangements.

However, according to the Expresso correspondent in Angola, it is very unlikely that the daughters of José Eduardo dos Santos will accept that the funeral is in Luanda – where the State intends it to take place.

At the same time, divisions in the family are deep as one of Eduardo dos Santos's daughters, Tchizé dos Santos, refuses to turn off his life support and accuses doctors of trying to kill her father and also accuses President João Lourenço of exploiting for political purposes her father's illness.

[Mike88]

Daughters of Eduardo dos Santos file for police protection for their father as they accuse the Angolan Government of being responsible for the bad health of their father:

In just one week, the two eldest daughters of José Eduardo dos Santos have joined forces to prevent them from turning off the machines that serve as life support for the former Angolan President. In addition to having hired a lawyer, this Friday they went to the police to advance a request for protection, following suspicions about the health status of Eduardo dos Santos. The report is by SIC journalist Nelson Mateus.

Tchizé and Isabel dos Santos understand that their father must be under police protection inside the Teknon Medical Center, where he has been hospitalized for a week. This, based on suspicions that José Eduardo dos Santos was poisoned and demand an investigation into the circumstances that led to his father's internment.

In addition, suspicions also fall on the Government of Angola, which they accuse of being linked to the process of deterioration in the health of José Eduardo dos Santos.

This is getting tense...

[Mike88]

José Eduardo dos Santos died this morning in a Barcelona hospital after several weeks in a coma.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1545381600581525504

[Coldstream]

José Eduardo dos Santos died this morning in a Barcelona hospital after several weeks in a coma.

Pity he won’t live long enough to see UNITA take over.

[Mike88]

José Eduardo dos Santos died this morning in a Barcelona hospital after several weeks in a coma.

Pity he won’t live long enough to see UNITA take over.

His daughter, Tchizé dos Santos, gave a few hints that Eduardo dos Santos was considering supporting UNITA in the August elections. But, Tchizé hates João Lourenço so much that it's not 100% certain what she says were her father's true intentions.

[jaichind]

José Eduardo dos Santos died this morning in a Barcelona hospital after several weeks in a coma.

Pity he won’t live long enough to see UNITA take over.

His daughter, Tchizé dos Santos, gave a few hints that Eduardo dos Santos was considering supporting UNITA in the August elections. But, Tchizé hates João Lourenço so much that it's not 100% certain what she says were her father's true intentions.

This part is not clear to me.  When and how did  Lourenço have a falling out with the dos Santos clan ?

[Mike88]

José Eduardo dos Santos died this morning in a Barcelona hospital after several weeks in a coma.

Pity he won’t live long enough to see UNITA take over.

His daughter, Tchizé dos Santos, gave a few hints that Eduardo dos Santos was considering supporting UNITA in the August elections. But, Tchizé hates João Lourenço so much that it's not 100% certain what she says were her father's true intentions.

This part is not clear to me.  When and how did  Lourenço have a falling out with the dos Santos clan ?

Well, for years, Eduardo dos Santos and his family used their positions to use Angolan state assets for their own expense, like using government money to invest in foreign companies, in foreign bank accounts, etc. His daughter, Isabel dos Santos, was, at one point, the richest woman in Africa and she had numerous leading posts in several businesses. In Portugal, she even was part of executive boards in several companies, all of this by using assets from the Angolan State. But, by 2017, oil prices plummeted and Angola's economy started to collapse, with misery hitting 40% of the population and there was no money left. As Eduardo dos Santos stepped aside and João Lourenço entered, he released that the Angolan state was completely bankrupt and he had to ask for a bailout from the IMF to save the economy. But because he couldn't attack Eduardo dos Santos personally, as he was protected by the constitution and he was still a deeply powerful figure, he decided to "attack" his family, mainly his children. Isabel dos Santos was accused of financial mismanagement in several Angolan companies she presided, mainly Sonangol, and several lawsuits against her and her sisters and brothers were issued. One of her brothers was actually arrested, I believe.

She and the rest of the family left Angola and they cannot enter anymore in Angola, otherwide they are arrested. This situation infuriated Eduardo dos Santos and the relationship between him and Lourenço was very deteriorated. There was a kind of "approximation" between both men, during this year, as Lourenço's position was becoming worse and worse, with the prospect of a humiliating defeat in the elections. But, the relation was still complicated and some of Eduardo dos Santos daughters accuse the Angolan government of even trying to kill their father for election purposes.

Now, who is right and wrong? No one, IMO. Lourenço was part of the inner circle of Eduardo dos Santos, so he knew how the President's family was using the country's assets for their own pleasure. But, of course, when Lourenço's time for power arrived, there was no money, lets say, for him. You can say this is basically revenge, but, like I said above, he cannot attack Eduardo dos Santos, but his family are fair game and this created the ongoing war between the Angolan State and the Eduardo dos Santos clan, which also creates deep divisions in MPLA.

[CumbrianLefty]

José Eduardo dos Santos died this morning in a Barcelona hospital after several weeks in a coma.

Pity he won’t live long enough to see UNITA take over.

Still haven't forgiven UNITA for the Savimbi terror, I'm afraid - his killing remains one of the few times I have literally cheered the death of another human being.

[Mike88]

Protests are erupting in Luanda against João Lourenço, with protesters accusing Lourenço of murdering Eduardo dos Santos.

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1545432829647065092

Hundreds of people took to the streets of Luanda this Friday to protest the death of José Eduardo dos Santos, believing that the former president of Angola was murdered.
In the images, it is possible to observe a crowd on Combatentes Avenue.

[Mike88]

The feud between Dos Santos clan vs the Angolan government now continues because of the funeral:

The Angolan government is already preparing for the State funeral of Eduardo dos Santos, but his daughters are refusing to let the body leave Spain. There will be an autopsy to Eduardo dos Santos body, as one of his daughters, Tchizé dos Santos, has filed a lawsuit to stop the body from leaving Spain and accusing several people of bad treatment to her father.

She accuses her stepmother, Ana Paula dos Santos, of limiting her father's medical treatment, by not letting him eat for more than 16 hours and for not taking him to hospital when he had a stroke. She also accuses her stepmother of being close to João Lourenço and of passing confidential medical info to him.

Her sister, Isabel dos Santos, is also refusing a State funeral before the elections, to be held on 24 August.

[Mike88]

The electoral campaign started yesterday, Sunday 24 July, with MPLA and UNITA holding big rallies, MPLA in Luanda, UNITA in Benguela, the country's fourth largest city:

https://twitter.com/FuturaPR2037/status/1550919502665322497

https://twitter.com/UNITA_2022/status/1551168549456076800

Polls are now contradictory. 2 polls give UNITA a comfortable lead, while other 2 polls give MPLA a wide lead:

MovimientoCívicoMudei poll: (Conducted between 5 and 17 July 2022, 907 interviews)

53.7% UNITA
29.8% MPLA
  7.6% CASA-CE
  8.9% Others

AngoBarómetro poll: (Conducted between 11 and 16 July 2022, 1,460 interviews)

53.8% UNITA
34.6% MPLA
  5.2% CASA-CE
  6.4% Others

POB Brasil poll: (Conducted between 16 and 21 July 2022, 1,500 interviews)

62% MPLA
33% UNITA
  5% Others

Angopolls poll: (Conducted between 15 and 22 July 2022, 1,085 interviews)

59% MPLA
33% UNITA
  8% Others

Info from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Angolan_general_election

[Mike88]

Campaign update: The campaign is under way but the first signs of tension are surging.

Civil society groups set to challenge election results because of irregularities:

In a press conference, the group representing members of Angolan civil society stated "the absence of legitimate and credible conditions that guarantee a free, fair and transparent electoral process".

Laurinda Gouveia, an Angolan activist who was part of the well-known 15+2 process in 2015, read the manifesto, pointing out as one of the irregularities the contracting of the Spanish company Indra, supplier of computer material for the Angolan general elections, proposing the cancellation of the public tender for the hiring and withdrawal from the electoral process, in addition to the "defects of the current Organic Law on Elections, which nullifies municipal scrutiny and the failure to establish summary minutes at polling stations".

Among other complaints, members representing Angolan civil society point to the unequal treatment of parties by the public media and the existence of deceased persons in the electoral roll.
(...)

Luanda provincial government forbides opposition march because of "safety reasons":

At issue is the holding of a march under the motto "Demand equal treatment in the electoral process of August 24", in which Angolan opposition parties and coalitions would participate, including the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA, the largest opposition party), Broad Convergence for the Salvation of Angola -- Electoral Coalition (CASA-CE, coalition of parties that represents the third political force in the Angolan Parliament), Social Renewal Party (PRS), Democratic Bloc (BD), and the political project PRA-JA Servir Angola, led by Abel Chivukuvuku.

The provincial government "recommends not carrying out" the initiative, considering that there is "a risk of compromising security and public order", not only because two marches are called for the same day, with the same schedule and itinerary, but also because they appear " political projects not approved by the Constitutional Court" that will not run in the elections "and therefore do not have the legitimacy to demand equal treatment in the electoral process".
(...)

[Mike88]

5 days until election day and tensions and worries about the day after are rising:

With polling being very unreliable, with accusations between UNITA and MPLA of "fake polls", it's unclear who is actually surging or not, however, the power MPLA holds in the system seems to be enough for them to win, but they could lose their majority creating, thus, political instability.

For that reason, foreign media is reporting big lines in ATMs across the country, with people removing money from banks and people buying goods and food in large scale in order to be prepared for the possible rise in tensions a probable close election outcome could create.

In terms of the campaign, both MPLA and UNITA are holding big rallies across the country with MPLA accuses UNITA of being funded by foreign interests that want to destabilize the country, while UNITA denies such accusations and responds that MPLA is blocking coverage of the opposition's campaign.

[Former President tack50]

Hoping for a UNITA win and a peaceful transition of power, but I fear that is an incredibly unlikely scenario

[Mike88]

The saga of José Eduardo dos Santos's body continues: Coffin is expected to arrive in Luanda this afternoon, after a Barcelona Court accepted an appeal to halt the assignment of custody of the body to Dos Santos wife.

A bombshell news has just entered in the campaign. José Eduardo dos Santos body is set to arrive in Luanda, this Saturday, at the same time a Barcelona Court accepted an appeal from Tchizé and Isabel dos Santos to halt the assignment of custody of the body to Dos Santos wife, Ana Paula dos Santos. An earlier Court decision, last Wednesday, gave the custody of the body to Ana Paula dos Santos, but the decision could be appealed. However, something happened and at the same time the appeal from his children was being accepted, the body of Angola's ex-leader was being removed from the Barcelona morgue and ready to travel to Luanda.

The children of Eduardo dos Santos were totally unaware of this and are considering an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights, and their lawyer said that no Judicial info was given to them. Tchizé and Isabel dos Santos accuse their stepmother of taking away their father, and TPA, Angola's State TV, also broadcast images of Ana Paula dos Santos overseeing the translation.

Eduardo dos Santos children, mainly Tchizé dos Santos, are openly supporting UNITA in next Wednesday elections.

[jaichind]

Are the dos Santos children endorsing anyone in this election?