Angolan 2022 general election (24 August)

[Mike88]

Are the dos Santos children endorsing anyone in this election?

Tchizé dos Santos is openly urging his followers on social media, and also on TV interviews, to vote UNITA. It's also understood that Isabel dos Santos and another brother, who is in Angola, also support UNITA. The other children, from Ana Paula dos Santos, are supporting MPLA.

[jaichind]

Are the dos Santos children endorsing anyone in this election?

Tchizé dos Santos is openly urging his followers on social media, and also on TV interviews, to vote UNITA. It's also understood that Isabel dos Santos and another brother, who is in Angola, also support UNITA. The other children, from Ana Paula dos Santos, are supporting MPLA.

Wow.  That is amazing.  I would have thought some of them would say "vote against MPLA" but to say "vote UNITA" is an amazing statement from anyone from the dos Santos clan and show how vitriolic the relationship with  Lourenço has gotten.

[Mike88]

Are the dos Santos children endorsing anyone in this election?

Tchizé dos Santos is openly urging his followers on social media, and also on TV interviews, to vote UNITA. It's also understood that Isabel dos Santos and another brother, who is in Angola, also support UNITA. The other children, from Ana Paula dos Santos, are supporting MPLA.

Wow.  That is amazing.  I would have thought some of them would say "vote against MPLA" but to say "vote UNITA" is an amazing statement from anyone from the dos Santos clan and show how vitriolic the relationship with  Lourenço has gotten.

Exactly, it's total war between both sides. However, not sure if this situation benefits Lourenço. I mean, when Eduardo dos Santos died, Lourenço tried to negotiate with the family in order to have a state funeral with them present in Luanda, but this was rejected as some of Dos Santos children don't trust Lourenço at all. Now, with this "weird" translation, Lourenço has basically given up in talking with dos Santos children. It will be interesting to see what kind of impact this will have in the last days of the campaign and on MPLA itself. Also, no date yet for the funeral. it just been announced that the State funeral will be on 28 August.

[Sadader]

I have absolutely zero idea how this is going to go. How bad is this going to get? Can UNITA even win?

[jaichind]

My understanding is that once the voting is done then all the ballots will have to be transported to Luanda to be counted versus being counted locally. If UNITA does not win they will for sure claim fraud.

[Mike88]

I have absolutely zero idea how this is going to go. How bad is this going to get? Can UNITA even win?

The campaign, which ends today, was tense but no violence was registered. However, everyone knows that Angola isn't a democratic state and there are fears that there could be election tampering. Campaign coverage was also grossly bias to MPLA as all of the main media is State controlled and few reports of the opposition campaign were given, even though UNITA rallies rivaled the size of the MPLA rallies. Opposition parties relied heavily on social media to broadcast their events. If the elections were free and with a decent fair coverage for both sides, UNITA would probably easily win, but when MPLA controls everything, from the Justice system to the ballot counting, it's almost but certain that they will win. The big doubt is the margin.

My understanding is that once the voting is done then all the ballots will have to be transported to Luanda to be counted versus being counted locally. If UNITA does not win they will for sure claim fraud.

Regarding the counting yes, it seems that it will be centralized, however there's an ongoing feud between the Electoral Commission (CNE) and UNITA/Opposition associations because they want their voters to vote and then wait near the polling stations to force ballot counting in polling stations, the so-called "vote and sit". CNE, on their part, says this is illegal and is asking opposition parties to not do this.

Some opposition association, like the one headed by Luaty Beirão, are planning in doing a "parallel counting of ballots" however.

[Mike88]

Election day has arrived:

https://twitter.com/AfricaElect/status/1562303690916102145

Portuguese media is making a big coverage of the elections all day long:

SIC Notícias: https://sicnoticias.pt/mundo/2022-08-24-Angola-mais-de-14-milhoes-chamados-as-urnas-para-votar-nas-eleicoes-gerais-81a06973

Observador: https://observador.pt/liveblogs/assembleias-de-voto-ja-abriram-14-milhoes-de-angolanos-votam-para-escolher-presidente-e-assembleia/

TSF radio: https://www.tsf.pt/mundo/acompanhe-na-tsf-as-eleicoes-em-angola-15111310.html

The main party leaders have already voted and turnout seems to be quite strong.

[Mike88]

Polls closed and hour and a half ago.

Votes are starting to be counted, but the first results are only expected by Friday afternoon.

The first indications, however, seem to show a very low turnout in Luanda city, just 40-50%. There are doubts if this means that few people cast a ballot, or a consequence of the more than 2 million dead people still registered to vote.

[Mike88]

No results yet, but TPA, Angolan State TV, released a poll conducted until mid August that has MPLA 10 points ahead of UNITA:

53.6% MPLA, 122/130 seats
42.4% UNITA, 85/93
  1.7% CASA-CE, 1/3
  1.2% PHA, 1/3
  0.5% PRS, 0/1
  0.6% Others

The poll was conducted by by Spanish polling company Sigma Dos and surveyed 6,967 voters between 30 July and 21 August 2022.

[Mike88]

TPA is announcing that the Electoral Commission will release some results in the next few minutes. This was not expected.

UNITA is also expected to give a press conference regarding the election results.

[Mike88]

With 33.16% of polling stations reporting, the CNE has released these results:

60.7% MPLA
33.9% UNITA
  1.5% PRS
  1.3% FNLA
  1.1% PHA
  0.7% CASA-CE
  0.5% APN
  0.5% P-NJANGO

[Mike88]

At the same time, UNITA's press conference has just started and the UNITA spokesperson is saying that their internal counting says that UNITA is leading and "on course to winning".

UNITA is also saying that in several polling stations, MPLA staff are refusing to sign results certificates or tearing them up because they are showing UNITA in the lead.

[jaichind]

Memories of Zimbabwe 2018 where the official count goes one way but the opposition cherry picks a bunch of unofficial results saying they are really ahead. 

[PSOL]

Memories of Zimbabwe 2018 where the official count goes one way but the opposition cherry picks a bunch of unofficial results saying they are really ahead. 

Uhh, the opposition won that time lol, as was the case with the prior elections that were rigged.

[jaichind]

Memories of Zimbabwe 2018 where the official count goes one way but the opposition cherry picks a bunch of unofficial results saying they are really ahead. 

Uhh, the opposition won that time lol, as was the case with the prior elections that were rigged.

Just like this election no one really knows.  The regime is quite capable of rigging the result but the opposition is also quite capable of making up claims of winning when they lost for real. 

[PSOL]

Memories of Zimbabwe 2018 where the official count goes one way but the opposition cherry picks a bunch of unofficial results saying they are really ahead. 

Uhh, the opposition won that time lol, as was the case with the prior elections that were rigged.

Just like this election no one really knows.  The regime is quite capable of rigging the result but the opposition is also quite capable of making up claims of winning when they lost for real. 

In both cases, it’s clear it was the result of rigging, as there was massive protests that could have resulted in a civil war had the army not intervened and cracked down on the protesters.

Jeez, if things get that ugly in Angola, we could see some serious bloodletting.

[Mike88]

If the election was partially free, with reasonable campaign coverage and with a transparent Electoral Commission, UNITA would win easily. But, everything in Angola, from the Courts to the Electoral counting is totally controlled by MPLA and they are not willing to accept defeat or lose power.

No one was expecting anything but this outcome as, like I said, MPLA controls everything and is not willing to accept democratic rules.

[Mike88]

Clashes between Police and Angolan voters in front of the Angolan Consulate in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/angolanboy_/status/1562600790250115072

According to the Lisbon Police, several people were throwing rocks against a bus that was transporting embassy workers. In the video, protesters are shouting "They are running away with our votes". Results from Portugal weren't posted outside the Embassy, which infuriated voters. The police, however, didn't arrest anyone.

[jaichind]

Ok.  So it has been 9 hours since the first batch of results.  Surely some more votes have been counted since then whose tallies CNE can report?

[Mike88]

Ok.  So it has been 9 hours since the first batch of results.  Surely some more votes have been counted since then whose tallies CNE can report?

Nothing yet. It seems that CNE had a press conference schedule for around a hour ago, but it's being delayed and delayed.

[Mike88]

CNE just announced new results: (86.41% of polling places reporting)

52.1% MPLA
43.0% UNITA
  1.2% PRS
  1.1% FNLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.7% CASA-CE
  0.5% APN
  0.4% P-NJANGO

[Mike88]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

[jaichind]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

Ironic that during the Civil war in the 1980s and 1990s MPLA was strong in the urban coastal areas while UNITA was strong in inland rural areas.  It now seems to be reversed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

Ironic that during the Civil war in the 1980s and 1990s MPLA was strong in the urban coastal areas while UNITA was strong in inland rural areas.  It now seems to be reversed.

I guess "status quo" minded people are disproportionately likely to live in rural areas? With UNITA doing well among discontented people in cities, and people discontented from the inequalities from decades of MPLA rule.
That's the best I can come up with right now, anyway...

[Mike88]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

Ironic that during the Civil war in the 1980s and 1990s MPLA was strong in the urban coastal areas while UNITA was strong in inland rural areas.  It now seems to be reversed.

Massive poverty and unemployment is eroding MPLA's support in urban areas. Plus, almost 60% of Angola's population is bellow 25 years old and they live, in their majority, in urban areas.