WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

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Comedy gold

[A]nalysts currently consider the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican Party. Should Manchin not run, analysts believe the seat will be an easy Republican pickup.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia

Even if Manchin would be easy to beat, it still diverts resources to beat him. In 2014 SD, MT, and WV were autoflips due to them being open seats while Arkansas and Louisiana weren't although Rs enjoyed a big advantage.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1631020378951753728

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This Race is a Republican LOCK with Jim Justice EVEN if Trump is the Republican Nominee in 2024.

West Virginia might honestly be the only sate where a Trump nomination increases the chance of a GOP picking up a Sneta seat.

Increases? That seat was gonna flip no matter what.

Not sure. In a State like West Virginia Republicans & Blue Collar Democrats could stay home if DeSantis is the Nominee.

Trump won the state by around 40 points, even Romney was able to carry it by around 27. So for Rs to lose this race would probably be the most humiliating senate loss of the 21st century regardless of who the GOP nominee.

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TIL Jim Justice is 6'7 if elected he would be the 2nd tallest current Senator. Manchin himself is also pretty tall at 6'3.

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Manchin has stated he will announce his future political plans in December of this year. Generally speaking most people who wait so long to announce a bid usually retire in the first place. Think about it, if he were to hypothetically run in Dec 2023, he would have <1 a year to build up a campaign, make fundraising efforts, and convince Dem donors to back him knowing his steep odds. Additionally, the longer wait makes it more likely a leftist Democrat could potentially launch a primary challenge causing additional headache. Furthermore, there are rumors Manchin is running for President in 2024 under the no labels tag that he has not dispelled. IMO if Manchin intended on running for Senate, he would have announced shortly after the 2022 elections like most incumbent Senators and would have gotten the ball running immediately while continuing to build DINO credentials he desperately needs. However, I think him delaying his exit from the Senate is mainly just to ensure that the Dem caucus doesn't treat him like a lame-duck knowing he leaves the chamber soon.

So what does a Manchin retirement do? While WV would most likely still flip even if he were to run, with Manchin not seeking re-election it would be absolutely titanium R and a guaranteed R flip (like 99.9% odds). As a result, Jim Justice may not be as favored since Republican primary voters wouldn't  neccesarily see him as the best prospect to flip the seat since any candidate would do it. As a result Mooney would probably run to the right of Justice on most issues in an aim to win the ideological battle as the electibility battle would be rendered useless.

As for the bigger picture of the US senate map, it increases Rs odds quite a bit. While Manchin would still probably lose, WV being titanium R with him out of the picture puts Rs at 50 seats to begin with, and only needing 1 of MT and OH assuming they win TX and FL. The millions of dollars that would have been sent against Manchin would now go against Tester or Brown increasing Republicans chances in winning the Senate.

Ofc, I could always be wrong but as of right now I think Manchin plans on not running for re-election.

I will now accept my accolades even though the signs were obvious from 2021.

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https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1722706754646237192

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Doesn’t change the actual math at all, but at least Dems don’t have to pretend to compete here anymore.

It does I think. Democrats now have to win a Senate Seat in either FL, TX, MO or TN to offset the West Virginia loss. They haven't won a Senate Seat in MO, FL since 2012 and McCaskill + Nelson were Incumbents back then. TX & TN haven't had a Democratic Senator in nearly 30 years.

Best case Scenario is a 50-50 Senate for D's.

This was going to be a Safe R flip with or without Manchin.

There is still a big difference between safe R and 99.99% R.

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Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Anyway this seat was almost certainly gone anyway with or without him so nothing really changes on the grand scale of things. Just an effortless flip for the R's next year; and they probably thought flipping LA-GOV this year was easy.

Definitely a state which has been doing overtime having any Democrats in statewide office for a while now.

Its kind of parallel to how Sununu announced he would not be running for senate shortly after Youngkin's win.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Anyway this seat was almost certainly gone anyway with or without him so nothing really changes on the grand scale of things. Just an effortless flip for the R's next year; and they probably thought flipping LA-GOV this year was easy.

Definitely a state which has been doing overtime having any Democrats in statewide office for a while now.

It might actually help us as it will ensure zero resources go into the WV race that would be better spent elsewhere.

Wouldn't it also help Republicans as well in that regard?

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https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1768370925353709595