WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

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Just imagine if the senate ends up once again 50-50 with Manchin as the tie breaker

If the Senate is still 50-50 in the 119th Congress, I think it is more likely that the “tie breaker” would be Brown or Tester.

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This Race is a Republican LOCK with Jim Justice EVEN if Trump is the Republican Nominee in 2024.

West Virginia might honestly be the only sate where a Trump nomination increases the chance of a GOP picking up a Sneta seat.

Increases? That seat was gonna flip no matter what.

Not sure. In a State like West Virginia Republicans & Blue Collar Democrats could stay home if DeSantis is the Nominee.

Trump won the state by around 40 points, even Romney was able to carry it by around 27. So for Rs to lose this race would probably be the most humiliating senate loss of the 21st century regardless of who the GOP nominee.

To be fair, Manchin’s last two victories (one of which occurred with Romney on the same ticket) involved many voters who are registered as Democrats - out of tradition (since their ancestors were also registered as such) and/or convenience (since most local officeholders are Democrats) - but who have voted Republican for offices at or near the top of the ticket in recent elections. This group is obviously dwindling in size, but if Manchin is somehow able to pull off another victory, the most likely reason would be that he has retained enough support from this voter bloc.

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I will not stop laughing if Manchin somehow underperforms Biden because a lack of D enthusiasm. It would be a fitting end and apt punishment for him blocking so much.

He’s been DOA since his November 7, 2018. You’d think he would’ve been smart enough to sense that this was his last term no matter what and start voting like he represented San Francisco.

This has been obvious to every American other than Joe Manchin, one wonders if he is just dumb or delusional or both.

The guy just seems completely out of time. He still think it's the ol' days were senate races were far more about the person running rather than partisanship. He also acts like the senate was the place from 30-40 years ago and that Republicans besides Romney and Murk are willing to get much done if you just give them enough. He's a politician with a 1970s mind. It can't be his age since Biden and Schumer learned their lessons from recent years.

However, I expect Manchin to do better than Biden, although it's a low bar. As of today, I'd say he loses something like 59-39%.

As I've mentioned before, Manchin's voting behavior would make sense if you look at the special interest donations he's taken. According to OpenSecrets, only about 3% of his campaign contributions are from small individual donors (<$200), while large contributions and PAC contributions combine to comprise over 93% of his campaign contributions. With those kinds of donations, it should hardly be a surprise that he votes in accordance with the wishes of his special interest donors instead of his constituents.

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Literally every Senate race in the country for 2024 will be Chuck Schumer vs. Mitch McConnell, same as the last several cycles. Doesn't matter how likeable they are, how they governed the state, any of that. A Manchin loss or retirement means 50-50 is all Democrats can realistically hope for, so I hope we're getting some old judges out of the way. If this and last year taught us anything, it's that the courts matter.

To be fair, there's also a fair to middling chance of 51-49 if TX flips (by virtue of a good senatorial candidate and/or the state being close enough at the presidential level).

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I don't think I'll be shedding any tears for the departure of this ultra corrupt corporate Democrat. In fact, I previously indicated that in the event he decided to change his partisan affiliation, I would have told him to go right ahead and do so.

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https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1768370925353709595

I think he was most likely dissuaded from running again based on polling which showed him getting his *** handed to him by Jim Justice. I don’t think he would change his mind unless later polls somehow show him leading Justice (and even then, I don’t think he would deserve any significant amount of institutional support - especially when compared to people like Brown or Tester).