WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrats should run someone credible like a state legislator to run for the Green (or Mountain if it still exists) Party nomination and give them enough money to run ads.  Better to throw the election to a generic Trump Cultist than risk letting Manchin win again

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrats should run someone credible like a state legislator to run for the Green (or Mountain if it still exists) Party nomination and give them enough money to run ads.  Better to throw the election to a generic Trump Cultist than risk letting Manchin win again

Horribly disagree if we're ever going to win the majority back anytime this decade. I'm displeased with him, but let's face it he is a hundred times better than any Trump cultist pack who would otherwise win. It's West freaking Virginia.

I suspect he will lose by somewhere close to double digits, but God bless him if he can at least make it erase requiring Republicans to put resources into, or possibly even pull off a minor miracle and win.

Having a “majority” b/c of Manchin simply means a deluge of disappointments and Dems in Disarray narratives.  We’re better off being down by one seat w/o Manchin and running against an obstructionist Republican Senate than we are having our majority come entirely from a DINO like Sinema, Manchin, or Zell Miller and looking to voters like incompetent clowns who can’t pass anything.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

FYI (esp. gracile/New Tennessean Politician), I don’t actually think Manchin is favored to win in 2024, I’m just hesitant to declare any red state Democrat who has demonstrably cultivated such a strong brand as Manchin DOA (and I’m treating other races such as MT-SEN 2024 and [albeit to a far lesser extent] OH-SEN 2024 with the same caution, so it’s not even about Manchin per se but red state voters and asymmetric polarization in general). Red states usually don’t vote out Democratic incumbents whom they genuinely trust and (foolishly) believe to represent their values, which is why it requires particular skill/effort to deconstruct those Democratic candidates' (Daschle, Bayh, Heitkamp, Landrieu, etc.) brands. Obviously Manchin doesn’t have an actual ideology besides skilled performance art and lies (as any serious observer/insider will confirm to you - we’ve covered this topic extensively), but given that politics is basically just a game and every win another ego boost for people like him, it’s no surprise that he’s desperate to run again in 2024. If you’ve been as successful in manipulating public perception of your persona as Manchin has been in the past (and still is), you live in a bubble which is nearly impossible to escape and believe there are no limits to how far your act can get you. The man is basically a narcissist who is so self-enamored that he thinks his playbook is going to work every single time, which is why it would be all the more satisfying to finally see him go down to defeat. Now yes, it probably won’t work again in 2024, but there’s nothing wrong with erring on the side of caution, esp. 2 1/2 years before the actual election and Manchin doing extremely well in early polling (not just Morning Consult [which I agree is generally trash], but also the Triton Research survey from January, where he was leading Mooney 49-28). Manchin won in 2018 for a myriad of reasons, but one of them was the fact that he defined himself (and his opponent) way before Republicans did, and that seems to be happening again, esp. with his (purely projected) role as a kingmaker in a 50/50 Senate and attendant (extremely beneficial) media coverage. In my view, the GOP should have already run ads predicting his (inevitable) betrayal of trust with his vote for KBJ, but they didn’t do that (instead they continue to hold him up as a 'good' Democrat). Now he’s - again - going to go full MAGA after Republicans take the Senate and he’s no longer the deciding vote, which will make it far more difficult to run against him than while he’s a Democratic vote in a 50/50 Senate.

The point isn’t necessarily that Mooney will lose to Manchin, but that it will actually require some effort on the part of the GOP to beat him soundly, which is why I’m glad that Steve Daines will be picked as NRSC chairman for that cycle. If Mooney is smart, he’ll just let Daines whisper strategy/messaging into his ear. His campaign against Bullock could serve as a road map for virtually any red state Senate/House race.

I’d argue Brown has a much stronger personal brand than Tester.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1631020378951753728

Why is this man incapable of giving a straight answer to literally anything

Because he’s a piece of crap

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

Re: The bolded part: Imagine actually believing this

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1648646083134799872?t=jOVvHL1Op_DG61nHc...

I mean, I’d vote for Justice over Manchin in a second.  That’s an easy one!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1649541483811291136?t=HakD9SShMJf8RtTq...

Endorsed

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think some democrats on this forum want Manchin to lose lol

I mean, I certainly do

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who care?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who care?

Us politics nerds

It has no impact on anything.  Maybe mild boost to Dems since no money will be wasted here.