WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Sir Mohamed]

Welcome back, Bog Don! Endorsed.

It would actually be funny for the dude to win, though I fail to see him even winning the primary. Maybe he would have 15-20 years ago, but most of the Appalachian DINOs either switched parties or are dead already.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The seat is GONE

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

The seat is GONE

Sure, but if Blankenship somehow won (and I don't think he would), that would be the funniest sh**t ever.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1768370925353709595

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1768370925353709595

[TML]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1768370925353709595

I think he was most likely dissuaded from running again based on polling which showed him getting his *** handed to him by Jim Justice. I don’t think he would change his mind unless later polls somehow show him leading Justice (and even then, I don’t think he would deserve any significant amount of institutional support - especially when compared to people like Brown or Tester).

[Pres Mike]

The only way I see this happening is Blankenship somehow got the Democratic nomination, yet split the Republican vote with Justice.

So polling would need to look like this for Manchin to get in

Manchin: 37%
Justice: 35%
Blankenship: 28%

Remember, Trump got 70% of the vote in 2020. If he endorses Justice, I don't really see Blankenship polling that high even if the Democrats play 4D chess

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The only way I see this happening is Blankenship somehow got the Democratic nomination, yet split the Republican vote with Justice.

So polling would need to look like this for Manchin to get in

Manchin: 37%
Justice: 35%
Blankenship: 28%

Remember, Trump got 70% of the vote in 2020. If he endorses Justice, I don't really see Blankenship polling that high even if the Democrats play 4D chess

Yes, as this hints, it's extremely unlikely that Manchin makes such a move until the identity of the D nominee is known:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/14/politics/joe-manchin-independent-senate-run/index.html

From Schumer's perspective, Manchin doesn't have to win (and he'd probably prefer him to lose due to ideological disagreements), he just has to get close enough to make the GOP funnel money away from other races. And honestly that does seem possible.

[Compuzled_One]

Okay, apparently, Manchin and Don have beef, so I can see Manchin running if Blackenship is nominated, and even have a decent chance to win if he pulls moderate Republicans + Democrats that don't want a guy who went to jail for a year.

Overall, I think the seat went back down to "only" likely R.

[Flyersfan232]

Okay, apparently, Manchin and Don have beef, so I can see Manchin running if Blackenship is nominated, and even have a decent chance to win if he pulls moderate Republicans + Democrats that don't want a guy who went to jail for a year.

Overall, I think the seat went back down to "only" likely R.

if justice is the nominee He have a hard time with moderate republican considering how popular justice is

[Compuzled_One]

Okay, apparently, Manchin and Don have beef, so I can see Manchin running if Blackenship is nominated, and even have a decent chance to win if he pulls moderate Republicans + Democrats that don't want a guy who went to jail for a year.

Overall, I think the seat went back down to "only" likely R.

if justice is the nominee He have a hard time with moderate republican considering how popular justice is

Right, Justice is moderate. Still, it's a better shot than a Dem campaign would have been.

[Storr]

A thought I just had: If Blankenship somehow won, would he switch parties?

[Compuzled_One]

A thought I just had: If Blankenship somehow won, would he switch parties?

Don't know, I get the feeling he doesn't know what he's doing.

[patzer]

A thought I just had: If Blankenship somehow won, would he switch parties?

I expect he'd probably be an independent.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Justice would win this hypothetical 3-way race pretty easily, but it would still be pretty fun and crazy to see a competitive race where all three major candidates had recently switched parties.

[Compuzled_One]

I know all attention on the Dem side is on John Brown lover and Paul Bearer, but what do we know about this Glenn Elliot guy and his chance? From what I've seen, he sounds centrist (except on abortion I guess), met with Byrd, and is well respected, so he's not the worst candidate.

I mean, Justice will still likely blow him out 20%+, but who knows, maybe he's secretly communing with Truman's ghost.

[Compuzled_One]

Welcome back, Bog Don! Endorsed.

It would actually be funny for the dude to win, though I fail to see him even winning the primary. Maybe he would have 15-20 years ago, but most of the Appalachian DINOs either switched parties or are dead already.

Also, late, but judging by this table, the 2020 election in relation to this table, and some Presidential primary results, the Demosaur's might still hold a punch and about 30-35% of the vote. The biggest challenge to him is the fact he, by what I heard, is widely hated, so he best hope that hate avoids his "base".

https://sos.wv.gov/elections/Documents/VoterRegistrationTotals/2023/Dec2023.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The seat is completely gone

[Compuzled_One]

Manchin has backed Glenn Elliot.

https://apnews.com/article/west-virginia-joe-manchin-glenn-elliott-8b8ad1cb4989b4dc253b7cf95932285e

I think Glenn Elliot will win with this, especially since Blankenship isn't raising any money.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ENDORSED