WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Dave Hedgehog]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Anyway this seat was almost certainly gone anyway with or without him so nothing really changes on the grand scale of things. Just an effortless flip for the R's next year; and they probably thought flipping LA-GOV this year was easy.

Definitely a state which has been doing overtime having any Democrats in statewide office for a while now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Anyway this seat was almost certainly gone anyway with or without him so nothing really changes on the grand scale of things. Just an effortless flip for the R's next year; and they probably thought flipping LA-GOV this year was easy.

Definitely a state which has been doing overtime having any Democrats in statewide office for a while now.

Its kind of parallel to how Sununu announced he would not be running for senate shortly after Youngkin's win.

[Alben Barkley]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Anyway this seat was almost certainly gone anyway with or without him so nothing really changes on the grand scale of things. Just an effortless flip for the R's next year; and they probably thought flipping LA-GOV this year was easy.

Definitely a state which has been doing overtime having any Democrats in statewide office for a while now.

It might actually help us as it will ensure zero resources go into the WV race that would be better spent elsewhere.

[Pyro]

Will not be missed. Your turn, Sinema.

[One Term Floridian]

I liked Joe Manchin. I still like Joe, but this was the right move from him. Frees up a lot of money that could be better used in MT, OH and elsewhere

[BigZuck08]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1722706754646237192

He's basically the West Virginian version of Bernie Sanders. Has 0 chance of winning the general.

[E-Dawg]

I would have more respect for Joe Manchin if he decided to run again and go down fighting, though it's not like he has much personal incentive to do so.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Anyway this seat was almost certainly gone anyway with or without him so nothing really changes on the grand scale of things. Just an effortless flip for the R's next year; and they probably thought flipping LA-GOV this year was easy.

Definitely a state which has been doing overtime having any Democrats in statewide office for a while now.

It might actually help us as it will ensure zero resources go into the WV race that would be better spent elsewhere.

Wouldn't it also help Republicans as well in that regard?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who care?

[BigZuck08]

Who care?

Us politics nerds

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Really doesn't change much, the only real difference is there won't be any money spent here now by the DSCC but it's not like West Virginia is an expensive state to begin with.

That guy running does sound awesome and it is too bad he has no chance.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also he's already rich so I doubt he goes to lobbying. He's just retiring.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who care?

Us politics nerds

It has no impact on anything.  Maybe mild boost to Dems since no money will be wasted here.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

As much as I wish he could have been more liberal, I am incredibly grateful that he was re-elected in 2018. Without him, Democrats would not have had a Senate Majority elected in 2021. I just wish he could have agreed to some kind of Build Back Better bill that would have helped lower-income citizens greatly.

[Aurelius2]

Great news!

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I'm not surprised. Also, people forget that Manchin is 76; at least he knows when to retire.

Anyway, this doesn't really change anything; he was already most likely going to lose, and the Senate is going to be tough to maintain for Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Joe Manchin is a narcissist (that’s the biggest/only difference between him and Susan Collins), but he’s still a narcissist with a brain. The guy gets up every morning to the fact that he’s made people across the ideological spectrum buy into his shtick.

Imagine how much humiliation his ego would have suffered with a reelection loss. He probably thought he had a slight chance of pulling it off even against Justice, but he didn’t want to take the risk, preferring to leave office as the unbeatable, impossible-to-see-through Joe Manchin. Poor Joey, you can tell he really wanted to go for another one.

[MT Treasurer]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Not really given that Beshear would have lost decisively with presidential turnout.

DDHQ estimates that 79% of Biden voters in 2020 turned out to vote, while only 53% of Trump voters voted in the 2023 Kentucky Governor election. Beshear’s ability to win over Trump voters has captured a lot of press, but many of them just sat this race out. This turnout gulf helped propel Beshear to victory, something he could not have achieved with persuasion alone. Without this substantial turnout advantage, Beshear would have lost handily.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/how-democrat-andy-beshear-won-re-election-in-deep-red-kentucky/

[Sestak]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Not really given that Beshear would have lost decisively with presidential turnout.

DDHQ estimates that 79% of Biden voters in 2020 turned out to vote, while only 53% of Trump voters voted in the 2023 Kentucky Governor election. Beshear’s ability to win over Trump voters has captured a lot of press, but many of them just sat this race out. This turnout gulf helped propel Beshear to victory, something he could not have achieved with persuasion alone. Without this substantial turnout advantage, Beshear would have lost handily.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/how-democrat-andy-beshear-won-re-election-in-deep-red-kentucky/

The math is takes to produce those numbers is actually insane. Pardon me if I don’t believe the Dairy Queen’s analysis that the Democratic statewide slate underperformed Biden substantially.

[Alben Barkley]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Not really given that Beshear would have lost decisively with presidential turnout.

DDHQ estimates that 79% of Biden voters in 2020 turned out to vote, while only 53% of Trump voters voted in the 2023 Kentucky Governor election. Beshear’s ability to win over Trump voters has captured a lot of press, but many of them just sat this race out. This turnout gulf helped propel Beshear to victory, something he could not have achieved with persuasion alone. Without this substantial turnout advantage, Beshear would have lost handily.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/how-democrat-andy-beshear-won-re-election-in-deep-red-kentucky/

The math is takes to produce those numbers is actually insane. Pardon me if I don’t believe the Dairy Queen’s analysis that the Democratic statewide slate underperformed Biden substantially.

Yeah, I'm not denying that Beshear probably would have lost with presidential turnout, but it takes nothing from his insane achievement of doing 5 points better than he did in 2019, this time with an incumbent president of his party in office with a 33% approval rating in Kentucky, flipping several counties, and winning half the counties in Eastern Kentucky coal country that even just last year voted for a Republican-backed abortion ban. Some by huge margins. (This man did 45 POINTS better in Hal Rogers' district than Biden.)

Just because he didn't win with persuasion alone doesn't mean he didn't do a hell of a job persuading a hell of a lot of people to vote for him, including some who probably wouldn't vote for any other Democrat on the planet. And really, persuading your base to turn out in much higher numbers percentage-wise than the other party's base is itself an impressive form of persuasion, especially when the other party is so dominant in the state. And winning when a majority of the other party's base still turns out, while massively outperforming the rest of your party, makes it even more impressive.

They can spin all they want, but nothing they say can take away from this victory. For Christ's sake, Beshear got over 60% in Breathitt County. Floods or no, do you know how insane that is in 2023???

[Ferguson97]

I disagree with the takes that this makes Democrats' path to a Senate majority harder. There's no scenario where Manchin is the 50th Democratic seat. If he's winning, then Tester and Brown (and probably Allred) have won as well.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You know, I'm actually pissed that he's retiring. It means he undermined Biden's agenda for nothing. I would rather see him go down fighting after being such a contrarian.

[Mr. Smith]

You know, I'm actually pissed that he's retiring. It means he undermined Biden's agenda for nothing. I would rather see him go down fighting after being such a contrarian.

On the contrary, he undermined it specifically because he could with answering to anyone.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

You know, I'm actually pissed that he's retiring. It means he undermined Biden's agenda for nothing. I would rather see him go down fighting after being such a contrarian.

I mean maybe he just stuck to his beliefs and he's ideologically moderate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Safe R -> Safe R