WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the only bragging rights Rs gonna have everything else is going D because alo g with Iowa they are the only states to trend right, all swing states trended left of FL 22

[Tekken_Guy]

Mooney should just run for re-election to WV-02 at this point, and run for Senate when either Capito or Justice himself retires.

[MillennialModerate]

I would’ve given Manchin a real shot if Trump hadn’t endorsed Justice but now that Justice is the nominee for sure - it’s over

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WV is Doomed because it's 2 percent blk MA has a higher ratio with blks than WV 7 percentage pts in MA

[Sir Mohamed]

Is there any date set when Manchin will finally decide? I think he wanted to announce by the year's end whether he runs for reelection, as No Labels POTUS candidate or whether he'll just retire from public office.

[Oryxslayer]

Machin out. The race has officially become uninteresting.

[Zedonathin2020]

The end of an era

https://twitter.com/sen_joemanchin/status/1722698734910210420?s=46&t=XC6qQa4...

[H. Ross Peron]

https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/status/1722698734910210420

[2016]

BREAKING NEWS
West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (D) will not seek Re-Election in 2024
https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/status/1722698734910210420

[Ferguson97]

Wow. Genuinely shocked by this.

[BigZuck08]

BREAKING NEWS
West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (D) will not seek Re-Election in 2024
https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/status/1722698734910210420

Safe R ----------------> This seat is totally gone for Dems now if it wasnt gone already so any money spent on this state should be going to other seats instead

[Birdish]

I don't find it all that surprising. There are anecdotes out there saying Manchin had to be begged to run again in 2018 and that he hates the senate. Although I do wonder if he'll try for Governor.

[Roll Roons]

Doesn’t change the actual math at all, but at least Dems don’t have to pretend to compete here anymore.

[Duke of York]

I don't find it all that surprising. There are anecdotes out there saying Manchin had to be begged to run again in 2018 and that he hates the senate. Although I do wonder if he'll try for Governor.

He should try for Governor.

[Minnesota Mike]

As expected.

I know a lot of Dems get frustrated with Manchin but he was without a doubt the most valuable Democrat in the Senate even if he only voted with them 75% of the time. A Democrat from West Virginia ? That was a gift.

[KaiserDave]

Wow. Genuinely shocked by this.

Why? He had to be really encouraged to run in 2018, this has been pretty obvious for years.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Gotta wonder if he got/accepted an offer from No Labels???

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Manchin has stated he will announce his future political plans in December of this year. Generally speaking most people who wait so long to announce a bid usually retire in the first place. Think about it, if he were to hypothetically run in Dec 2023, he would have <1 a year to build up a campaign, make fundraising efforts, and convince Dem donors to back him knowing his steep odds. Additionally, the longer wait makes it more likely a leftist Democrat could potentially launch a primary challenge causing additional headache. Furthermore, there are rumors Manchin is running for President in 2024 under the no labels tag that he has not dispelled. IMO if Manchin intended on running for Senate, he would have announced shortly after the 2022 elections like most incumbent Senators and would have gotten the ball running immediately while continuing to build DINO credentials he desperately needs. However, I think him delaying his exit from the Senate is mainly just to ensure that the Dem caucus doesn't treat him like a lame-duck knowing he leaves the chamber soon.

So what does a Manchin retirement do? While WV would most likely still flip even if he were to run, with Manchin not seeking re-election it would be absolutely titanium R and a guaranteed R flip (like 99.9% odds). As a result, Jim Justice may not be as favored since Republican primary voters wouldn't  neccesarily see him as the best prospect to flip the seat since any candidate would do it. As a result Mooney would probably run to the right of Justice on most issues in an aim to win the ideological battle as the electibility battle would be rendered useless.

As for the bigger picture of the US senate map, it increases Rs odds quite a bit. While Manchin would still probably lose, WV being titanium R with him out of the picture puts Rs at 50 seats to begin with, and only needing 1 of MT and OH assuming they win TX and FL. The millions of dollars that would have been sent against Manchin would now go against Tester or Brown increasing Republicans chances in winning the Senate.

Ofc, I could always be wrong but as of right now I think Manchin plans on not running for re-election.

I will now accept my accolades even though the signs were obvious from 2021.

[2016]

Doesn’t change the actual math at all, but at least Dems don’t have to pretend to compete here anymore.

It does I think. Democrats now have to win a Senate Seat in either FL, TX, MO or TN to offset the West Virginia loss. They haven't won a Senate Seat in MO, FL since 2012 and McCaskill + Nelson were Incumbents back then. TX & TN haven't had a Democratic Senator in nearly 30 years.

Best case Scenario is a 50-50 Senate for D's.

[Fancyarcher]

I don't find it all that surprising. There are anecdotes out there saying Manchin had to be begged to run again in 2018 and that he hates the senate. Although I do wonder if he'll try for Governor.

He should try for Governor.

He would get blown out in that race too.

[Roronoa D. Law]

What that old black lady from the Bronx say? Either way it does hurt us in the senate cause Manchin was our only chance of holding on even if it was a small chance.

[Roll Roons]

Doesn’t change the actual math at all, but at least Dems don’t have to pretend to compete here anymore.

It does I think. Democrats now have to win a Senate Seat in either FL, TX, MO or TN to offset the West Virginia loss. They haven't won a Senate Seat in MO, FL since 2012 and McCaskill + Nelson were Incumbents back then. TX & TN haven't had a Democratic Senator in nearly 30 years.

Best case Scenario is a 50-50 Senate for D's.

This was going to be a Safe R flip with or without Manchin.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1722706754646237192

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Doesn’t change the actual math at all, but at least Dems don’t have to pretend to compete here anymore.

It does I think. Democrats now have to win a Senate Seat in either FL, TX, MO or TN to offset the West Virginia loss. They haven't won a Senate Seat in MO, FL since 2012 and McCaskill + Nelson were Incumbents back then. TX & TN haven't had a Democratic Senator in nearly 30 years.

Best case Scenario is a 50-50 Senate for D's.

This was going to be a Safe R flip with or without Manchin.

There is still a big difference between safe R and 99.99% R.