WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we win OH S we win the S Brown is clearly the swing state S that's why it's foolish to give up on the S Brown and Tester have survived since 2006 and we did win 2006/2012 MO and MT and WVA, FL wave insurance,
because I'm those yrs Brown survives  that's why I will continue to Donate Kunce, Gallego, Brown and Biden 10.00 from now until Eday like I did Ryan, Bullock, Joe Kennedy and Strickland, Obama 2012 and Hillary 2016

This isn't a Midterm and DeWine isn't on the Ballot Brown can survive

Also, OH, NC and FL are swing states in 24

[2016]

In the end I think Manchin loses by a dozen points (maybe more), but I'm not ready to declare his campaign dead yet.

Governor Jim Justice has nearly a 70 % Approval Rating in West Virginia. He is basically in the same Position Mark Warner was at the end of his tenure as Governor of Virginia in 2005 (Warner ran to succeed John Warner in 2008) or John Hoeven before he ran for Senate in North Dakota during the 2010 Midterms.

Justice is universally liked in his Home State. This Seat is an automatic Pick Up for Republicans if he runs just like the Alabama Senate Seat held by Doug Jones was in 2020.

There is also a reasonable chance Manchin retires altogether if Justice officially declares.

So bascially Democrats are already down one Seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 20 mnths til Eday try Jan 24 after Nov 23 when we get results from LA, KY and MS 2016 said Gov Cameron and he is losing, it's a 303 map with wave insurance


RS haven't netted a single S seat since 2018 and Oz, Laxalt and Walker were ahead in Trafalgar polls leads up to Eday and lost, I won't listen to him and we won KS 22

I am not gonna donate to Manchin but Collins and Murkowski are in a Pandemic world  I am selective donated for the Reparations Filibuster proof Trifecta OH, MO, FL and AZ and Biden 24 MO is this yr and next yr I will donate to Biden and it's only 10 far short than on past

I always donate to blk statwa MT, I donated to Bullock but this time no Tester and Manchin MO St Louis where McCaskill won and Kander came within 3 pts of Blunt in 2016 and Hillary didn't even win, all of these Candidate are probably 5 pts down Oz, Walker and Laxalt were down 5 and lost.Also certainly OH, FL and AZ have blks in them

I always make wave maps I scoreboard watch and root for D's not RS and can't update my map on Eday

I saw a poll in FL it's close mot 20 if I see a poll like that blks can make up 5 percent and Biden is only down 3 not 20 because Miami, Emerson isn't a joke pollster, I guarantee you none of our D S in OH, WV, MT, MO and FL are gonna be blown out like Mastriano was blown out in PA and will be blown out by Casey, Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson and there is no Laxalt in NV and Rosen will win

TX without Allred we are gonna lose by 11

[windjammer]

I find it weird he hasn't declared yet

[Spectator]

I find it weird he hasn't declared yet

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2020&fips=8&f=0&off=0&elect=0&def=tnd&datatype=county

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The Club for Growth plans to stop a Justice coronation and back Mooney.

Not surprising. Mooney fits the CFG profile better, but it won't make a difference here.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/JimJusticeWV/status/1643315822612606982?cxt=HHwWjMDTyZbCnc4t...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is a crook, they're all crooks

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/JimJusticeWV/status/1643315822612606982?cxt=HHwWjMDTyZbCnc4t...

Law and order happened.

The seat is Safe R/Justice though.

[Spectator]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have pickup too MO and hold onto OH and win OH and NC, EC map, DeWine isn't on the ballot. TX and FL are only
last resorts and John Love isn't known yet and Kander came within 3 of Blunt, MO, MT and OH are 5 pt races anyways and KY, MS and NC G

The RS are changing the law so only the top 2 in MT regardless of party go onto GE and Tester can lose and we automatically go to 49 seats, so MO, TX and FL are our pick-ups


Ryan was leading Vance before the IAN SURGE WITH DESANTIS, he gave all RS a bump in the polls because how did DeWine and Rubio and DeSantis win by 25 pts they leading by 5 before IAN

[MT Treasurer]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

No, Justice has remained relatively pro gay rights, for instance. If a future Republican trifecta tries to take those away (likely) better him than Mooney or one of the other crackheads.

[SnowLabrador]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

No, Justice has remained relatively pro gay rights, for instance. If a future Republican trifecta tries to take those away (likely) better him than Mooney or one of the other crackheads.

He'll fall in line.

[2016]

Jim Justice probably did the right embracing Trump EVEN after Trumps Indictment considering these Margins here:

2016 Presidential Election in West Virginia

Donald Trump/Mike Pence   489,371 - 68,50 %
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine   188,794 - 26,43 %

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

2020 Presidential Election in West Virginia

Donald Trump/Mike Pence   545,382 - 68,62 %
Joseph R. Biden/Kamala D. Harris   235,984 - 29,69 %

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

Didn't the User Alben Barkley tell us all that WV moved to the left in 2020? It actually did not. Trump actually increased his raw Vote Difference over Democrats by 9K from 301K in 2016 to 310K in 2020.

Biden getting more Votes had to do with the increased Turnout in General (Pandemic Election) and fewer people voted 3rd Party.

Manchin is DOA if Republicans have managed to coax Justice into the Race and Trumps Indictment makes it even more likely Justice runs.

This Seat is definitly an "Automatic Pick-Up" even more so if Trump is the GOP Nominee. The only Question is does Manchin lose by more or less compared to Senator Doug Jones in Alabama in 2020?

So best-case scenario for Democrats they get a 50/50 Tie again meaning they lose West Virginia and everything else stays the same. I do not see Democrats winning in Florida, Texas and Missouri. There is actually a decent chance Rick Scott, Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley outrun Trump.

More likely scenario though is that Democrats lose West Virginia and either Ohio or Montana giving Republicans Senate Control again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jim Justice probably did the right embracing Trump EVEN after Trumps Indictment considering these Margins here:

2016 Presidential Election in West Virginia

Donald Trump/Mike Pence   489,371 - 68,50 %
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine   188,794 - 26,43 %

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

2020 Presidential Election in West Virginia

Donald Trump/Mike Pence   545,382 - 68,62 %
Joseph R. Biden/Kamala D. Harris   235,984 - 29,69 %

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

Didn't the User Alben Barkley tell us all that WV moved to the left in 2020? It actually did not. Trump actually increased his raw Vote Difference over Democrats by 9K from 301K in 2016 to 310K in 2020.

Biden getting more Votes had to do with the increased Turnout in General (Pandemic Election) and fewer people voted 3rd Party.

Manchin is DOA if Republicans have managed to coax Justice into the Race and Trumps Indictment makes it even more likely Justice runs.

This Seat is definitly an "Automatic Pick-Up" even more so if Trump is the GOP Nominee. The only Question is does Manchin lose by more or less compared to Senator Doug Jones in Alabama in 2020?

So best-case scenario for Democrats they get a 50/50 Tie again meaning they lose West Virginia and everything else stays the same. I do not see Democrats winning in Florida, Texas and Missouri. There is actually a decent chance Rick Scott, Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley outrun Trump.

More likely scenario though is that Democrats lose West Virginia and either Ohio or Montana giving Republicans Senate Control again.

LoL if Manchin runs the PVI will be the same 81/74/3M votes Manchin will get 3% like Jorgenson, I talk to many blks they don't even know whom Manchin is but an obstructionist to Filibuster that's blocking reparations

[MT Treasurer]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

No, Justice has remained relatively pro gay rights, for instance. If a future Republican trifecta tries to take those away (likely) better him than Mooney or one of the other crackheads.

How Justice would vote on a bill chipping away at gay marriage rights is about as relevant as entertaining how he’d vote on a bill that would end all wars. 

Justice is a reliable vote against Schumer, Manchin is (and has always been) a reliable vote for Schumer, and that’s really all there’s to it. For Democrats, there is no upside to Justice being the Republican nominee here.

[SnowLabrador]

It doesn't matter who the Republican nominee is, guys. Let's stop pretending that Justice is some moderate. The fact is, any of them will defeat Manchin easily, and any of them will be a reliable vote for McConnell. Contrary to what Sean Spicer may have said once, you can't disagree with the facts.

[Spectator]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

No, Justice has remained relatively pro gay rights, for instance. If a future Republican trifecta tries to take those away (likely) better him than Mooney or one of the other crackheads.

How Justice would vote on a bill chipping away at gay marriage rights is about as relevant as entertaining how he’d vote on a bill that would end all wars. 

Justice is a reliable vote against Schumer, Manchin is (and has always been) a reliable vote for Schumer, and that’s really all there’s to it. For Democrats, there is no upside to Justice being the Republican nominee here.

Obviously he’d be a reliable vote for McConnell. He’d also be much more likely than Mooney to split on 2% of thing so. Justice is the kind of person that would occasionally break ranks, much like Portman, Burr, and Toomey often did.

It speaks to the stupidity of the NRSC that they feel the need to “recruit” Justice into the Senate race when any Republican would get the job done.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

Re: The bolded part: Imagine actually believing this

[Mr. Smith]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

Re: The bolded part: Imagine actually believing this

It's not wrong, just disingenuous.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1648646083134799872?t=jOVvHL1Op_DG61nHc...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why he is underwater he hasn't declared a candidacy yet it's gone anyways and Tester might too but we are targeting MO, TX and FL


That's why I say Brown isn't gone yet we need him, users think it's a 303 map not a 538 map and Vance won in DeWine he isn't even in ballot DeWine outran Vance by 20

[2016]

@AncestralDemocrat,
I haven't agreeing with you about Trump as of late however I think we can both agree that Manchin is a GONER. That Seat will belong to Governor Justice in 2025
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1648704465917149184

Those Numbers are a Full Blown Disaster for National Dems and Manchin. Automatic Pick Up IMO!

[S019]

I will not stop laughing if Manchin somehow underperforms Biden because a lack of D enthusiasm. It would be a fitting end and apt punishment for him blocking so much.