GA SUSA: Warnock +5

[Minnesota Mike]

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bca047b9-0028-4722-99cf-e8b225416609

Warnock 50
Walker 45

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I can't see him winning by 5 but he's much more likely to win than CCM/Kelly

[MT Treasurer]

Average this and the Walker +10 poll and it’s close to where I expect the race to end up. I think Warnock is going to lose but I agree that NV and AZ flip before GA.

[Minnesota Mike]

Average this and the Walker +10 poll and it’s close to where I expect the race to end up. I think Warnock is going to lose but I agree that NV and AZ flip before GA.

I'm not a big fan of SUSA but I don't think you should average it with an internal. Throw it in with any other independent polling.

[Matty]

There is absolutely no way there will be a ten point difference in the Governor and senate races

[Minnesota Mike]

There is absolutely no way there will be a ten point difference in the Governor and senate races

Agree. I do think Warnock overperforms Abrams due to the quality of candidates in the races but by nowhere near 10 points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There is absolutely no way there will be a ten point difference in the Governor and senate races

Probably not that wide, but Warnock is a WAY better candidate than Abrams.

[2016]

Average this and the Walker +10 poll and it’s close to where I expect the race to end up. I think Warnock is going to lose but I agree that NV and AZ flip before GA.

I'm not a big fan of SUSA but I don't think you should average it with an internal. Throw it in with any other independent polling.

This Poll is based on a Sample of 46-46 Biden/Trump 2020 GE! Give me a break. It will not be like that. Once again Polls underestimating Republicans the same way they did in previous Republican Midterms.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Yeah, I'm junking this poll.. weird crosstabs and lol at Perdue outperforming Walker by over 8 points.

[UncleSam]

Average this and the Walker +10 poll and it’s close to where I expect the race to end up. I think Warnock is going to lose but I agree that NV and AZ flip before GA.

I'm not a big fan of SUSA but I don't think you should average it with an internal. Throw it in with any other independent polling.

This Poll is based on a Sample of 46-46 Biden/Trump 2020 GE! Give me a break. It will not be like that. Once again Polls underestimating Republicans the same way they did in previous Republican Midterms.

Bear in mind that after an election, people tend to report voting the winner at higher rates than they did in reality (seriously, people are that concerned about being perceived as a ‘loser’). So in reality if a group reported 46-46 the group probably actually voted for Trump by 2 or 3 points.

Given expected turnout differentials id still expect the eventual electorate to be more pro-Trump than that in Georgia, but not by much more. I don’t think this poll is crazy based on the cross tabs.

[2016]

@Matty

Full Poll
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bca047b9-0028-4722-99cf-e8b225416609

Sample 42R/39D/I17

Also, they have 30 % African-Americans in this sample which is what Biden had in 2020. They are polling a 2020 Electorate here.

Midterms usually have lower AA Turnout. No way GA will have 30 % Black Electorate in November.

[2016]

Average this and the Walker +10 poll and it’s close to where I expect the race to end up. I think Warnock is going to lose but I agree that NV and AZ flip before GA.

I'm not a big fan of SUSA but I don't think you should average it with an internal. Throw it in with any other independent polling.

This Poll is based on a Sample of 46-46 Biden/Trump 2020 GE! Give me a break. It will not be like that. Once again Polls underestimating Republicans the same way they did in previous Republican Midterms.

Bear in mind that after an election, people tend to report voting the winner at higher rates than they did in reality (seriously, people are that concerned about being perceived as a ‘loser’). So in reality if a group reported 46-46 the group probably actually voted for Trump by 2 or 3 points.

Given expected turnout differentials id still expect the eventual electorate to be more pro-Trump than that in Georgia, but not by much more. I don’t think this poll is crazy based on the cross tabs.

Georgia will not have 30 % Black Electorate in November. No way! SurveyUSA Pollsters have some serious mental issues here.

[2016]

GA 2020 Exit Poll

61 % White
29 % Black
7 % Hispanic
1 % Asian
2 % Others
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-president-results

[Minnesota Mike]

@Matty

Full Poll
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bca047b9-0028-4722-99cf-e8b225416609

Sample 42R/39D/I17

Also, they have 30 % African-Americans in this sample which is what Biden had in 2020. They are polling a 2020 Electorate here.

Midterms usually have lower AA Turnout. No way GA will have 30 % Black Electorate in November.

First off never over interpret the crosstabs. That having been said 60-30 was also the turnout in 2018 and the demographics of Georgia have continued to change since then.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

I can see AA turnout being a concern other places but in Georgia? 3 of the 4 major candidates are black and Abrams and Warnock have proven adept at turning out black voters. Bigger question mark is if the white non college Trump voters turn out.

[Podgy the Bear]

Warnock is advertising heavily.  Walker is nowhere to be found.  And any coverage of him in the media tends to be negative--focusing on his personal life and his nonexistent to moronic political stands.

[Adam Griffin]

@Matty

Full Poll
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bca047b9-0028-4722-99cf-e8b225416609

Sample 42R/39D/I17

Also, they have 30 % African-Americans in this sample which is what Biden had in 2020. They are polling a 2020 Electorate here.

Midterms usually have lower AA Turnout. No way GA will have 30 % Black Electorate in November.

It was 31-32% in 2018, 29% in 2014 and 28% even in 2010, so...in a state where the black population continues to increase: yeah.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good poll Walker was never up 10

[ElectionsGuy]

There is absolutely no way there will be a ten point difference in the Governor and senate races

Yeah, this is all due to more undecideds (however small) being Republican in this race vs the Governor one. And notably, 2x as many R's voting for Warnock than D's voting for Walker. I don't buy that for a second.

Oh, and they had a Warnock +7 poll in December/January with similar patterns. But they had Independents going to Warnock by 18. Now it's only 6, which even that is fairly sketchy given independents in polls elsewhere.

[2016]

@Matty

Full Poll
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bca047b9-0028-4722-99cf-e8b225416609

Sample 42R/39D/I17

Also, they have 30 % African-Americans in this sample which is what Biden had in 2020. They are polling a 2020 Electorate here.

Midterms usually have lower AA Turnout. No way GA will have 30 % Black Electorate in November.

It was 31-32% in 2018, 29% in 2014 and 28% even in 2010, so...in a state where the black population continues to increase: yeah.

Bidens JA in GA is stuck in the high 30ties or low 40ties and you are telling us Warnock will overperform Biden 7 or 8 Points? Give me a break! More likely outcome is that Warnock will get dragged down by President Biden in a very significant way.

[Schiff for Senate]

@Matty

Full Poll
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bca047b9-0028-4722-99cf-e8b225416609

Sample 42R/39D/I17

Also, they have 30 % African-Americans in this sample which is what Biden had in 2020. They are polling a 2020 Electorate here.

Midterms usually have lower AA Turnout. No way GA will have 30 % Black Electorate in November.

First off never over interpret the crosstabs. That having been said 60-30 was also the turnout in 2018 and the demographics of Georgia have continued to change since then.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

I can see AA turnout being a concern other places but in Georgia? 3 of the 4 major candidates are black and Abrams and Warnock have proven adept at turning out black voters. Bigger question mark is if the white non college Trump voters turn out.

Warnock won narrowly and Abrams lost despite the sky-high black turnout (with both whites and nonwhites). Unless that turnout is replicated in 2022 (and Romney-Biden voters in the suburbs vote with the same turnout and go Democratic by the same margins), Abrams and Warnock aren't winning. There was sky-high black turnout because it was a Trump midterm and later because the Senate was in limbo. In 2022, my guess is blacks turn out, but less than 2018/2021 (and they vote less overwhelmingly Democratic too - Walker is, after all, also black), and that Romney-Biden voters both turn out less and many vote red. I'd guess that because of both of these, Abrams and Warnock both end up going down this November.

[SnowLabrador]

Warnock is advertising heavily.  Walker is nowhere to be found.  And any coverage of him in the media tends to be negative--focusing on his personal life and his nonexistent to moronic political stands.

That would seem to indicate that Walker has a lot more room to grow.

[Adam Griffin]

@Matty

Full Poll
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bca047b9-0028-4722-99cf-e8b225416609

Sample 42R/39D/I17

Also, they have 30 % African-Americans in this sample which is what Biden had in 2020. They are polling a 2020 Electorate here.

Midterms usually have lower AA Turnout. No way GA will have 30 % Black Electorate in November.

It was 31-32% in 2018, 29% in 2014 and 28% even in 2010, so...in a state where the black population continues to increase: yeah.

Bidens JA in GA is stuck in the high 30ties or low 40ties and you are telling us Warnock will overperform Biden 7 or 8 Points? Give me a break! More likely outcome is that Warnock will get dragged down by President Biden in a very significant way.

I see you're a crayon-eater who can't read. When did I say anything of the sort? You're the one saying it's impossible for the black share of the electorate to be in the 30% range when it hasn't been below 28% in any presidential or midterm election since 2006.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warnock is advertising heavily.  Walker is nowhere to be found.  And any coverage of him in the media tends to be negative--focusing on his personal life and his nonexistent to moronic political stands.

That would seem to indicate that Walker has a lot more room to grow.

Lol do you know what Elder and Walker believes and Clarence Thomas they don't believe in Quotas even in Govt jobs you have to take test as well as in school Blks and Latinos score lower than whites and that means they are passed on if a White score A levels and a Minority or female score lower and the pay scale is totally different whites are the entrepreneur and they hire their own as Supervisor naturally a Supervisor is paid higher than an average worker, you said Larry Elder was gonna win too

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Average this and the Walker +10 poll and it’s close to where I expect the race to end up. I think Warnock is going to lose but I agree that NV and AZ flip before GA.

I'm not a big fan of SUSA but I don't think you should average it with an internal. Throw it in with any other independent polling.

This Poll is based on a Sample of 46-46 Biden/Trump 2020 GE! Give me a break. It will not be like that. Once again Polls underestimating Republicans the same way they did in previous Republican Midterms.

Bear in mind that after an election, people tend to report voting the winner at higher rates than they did in reality (seriously, people are that concerned about being perceived as a ‘loser’). So in reality if a group reported 46-46 the group probably actually voted for Trump by 2 or 3 points.

Given expected turnout differentials id still expect the eventual electorate to be more pro-Trump than that in Georgia, but not by much more. I don’t think this poll is crazy based on the cross tabs.

Georgia will not have 30 % Black Electorate in November. No way! SurveyUSA Pollsters have some serious mental issues here.

SuSA has mental issues because they... predict a % of the black electorate that has been consistent since 2012?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 303 blue wall is secure, all the Incumbent Govs are safe for Reelection that Approvals of incumbent Govs shows it's a 303 map but D's have to target in the S other WI that Ron Johnson have defied expectations before in 2010/16 we need other states aside from WI get over 50 seats aside from PA.



We need 53 seats because 24 it reverses 20 D's are up and on 14 Rs are up

That IA poll is encouraging if Franken is kneck and kneck with Grassley, Ryan can beat Vance or Mandel they're not Portman

FL and NC are unpredictable, Cooper was up 10 and won narrowly that plus 12 poll in NC for Rs is inflated like Cooper he had the same 12 pt lead