GA- surveyusa/11alive: kemp+5 vs Abrams

[Matty]

The poll gives the governor a 25-point edge on Perdue, 56% to 31%


11Alive's poll suggests a second race between Kemp and Abrams would again go down as a close one.
With a margin of error of 3.4% from a polling sample of 1,278 likely general election voters, the result breaks down below:
If the November election for Georgia Governor were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
Brian Kemp - 50%
Stacey Abrams - 45%
Undecided - 5%

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/georgia-governor-poll-11alive-brian-kemp-stacey-abrams-david-perdue/85-c32ba4bb-5caf-4881-a4c9-cf860e3a28c2

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Reasonable. Still think Evers loses by more though

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reasonable. Still think Evers loses by more though

Lol Where have decent Approvals

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting that Abrams underperforms Warnock who is leading Walker 50-45 in the same poll.  I would suspect both those races end closer to one another.

[Matty]

Interesting that Abrams underperforms Warnock who is leading Walker 50-45 in the same poll.  I would suspect both those races end closer to one another.

Yep.

That’s a red flag that the sample is weird

[2016]

Reasonable. Still think Evers loses by more though

Lol Where have decent Approvals

Evers will get dragged down by Bidens Job Approvals!

[Bootes Void]

Interesting that Abrams underperforms Warnock who is leading Walker 50-45 in the same poll.  I would suspect both those races end closer to one another.

I’m don’t think this is that surprising there are definitely going to be some Kemp\Warnock voters as they are both incumbents facing more polarizing opponents

[Podgy the Bear]

Interesting that Abrams underperforms Warnock who is leading Walker 50-45 in the same poll.  I would suspect both those races end closer to one another.

They will be if the midterms are as nationalized as they have been for several cycles.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They poll this state too much

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it really that weird for a poll to show that the Democrat who just won a statewide election is leading his race (against Trump's handpicked celebrity crank) while the Democrat who just lost a statewide election is losing her race?

It's not necessarily weird in the abstract, but GA is a state that has seen little-to-no split-ticket voting in recent election cycles and an even more demographics-driven electorate than is usual in this country.
Abrams is probably still favored, if trends of the past ten to fifteen years continue in the state, but incumbency could save Kemp.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abrams was always the Dog her best chance is running with Warnock and holding Rs below 50 and winning the Jan Runoff she won't be leading like WARNOCK will be on Eday

That's why I have it going D eventhough it's R leaning she may make the runoff

[wbrocks67]

If the 18-34 crosstab in the eventual vote is actually only Abrams +8 among young people, then yes she is definitely losing. Given Kemp's severe far-right swing, Abrams should be doing MUCH better among young voters, even in GA.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R

Lol Abrams all she has to do is hold them to 49% and make the Runoff

[Pollster]

Important to remember that Abrams is a very competent and well-defined challenger running against a very competent and well-defined incumbent whereas Warnock is a very competent and well-defined incumbent running against a more blank-slate (politically, at least) and unproven challenger for whom I have already seen an oppo book roughly the length of War and Peace.

[Vosem]

Should be noted that Walker has led in the last 7 polls conducted before this one, one of which was a Democratic internal. Throw it in the average but there's no particular reason to think Warnock is leading.

(Also, while Kemp normally runs ahead of Walker, the polling average has this difference at ~6 points. 10 is possible but not unheard of, but probably suggests Kemp is romping similarly to Perdue 2006.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Should be noted that Walker has led in the last 7 polls conducted before this one, one of which was a Democratic internal. Throw it in the average but there's no particular reason to think Warnock is leading.

(Also, while Kemp normally runs ahead of Walker, the polling average has this difference at ~6 points. 10 is possible but not unheard of, but probably suggests Kemp is romping similarly to Perdue 2006.)

Because Walker is another Larry Elder what has he done for Blks, WARNOCK believes in Voting Rights, Walker wants to rubberr stamp McConnell whom FILIBUSTER the Voting Rights

Users especially Rs forget how they're cheating with an R Crt and Gerrymandering and think they are winning the Election on their own and blocked VR

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interesting that Abrams underperforms Warnock who is leading Walker 50-45 in the same poll.  I would suspect both those races end closer to one another.

Yep.

That’s a red flag that the sample is weird

Not really, Warnock and Kemp are both far stronger candidates than Abrams and Walker, respectively.  It'd be surprising if Warnock wasn't out-performing Abrams by at least a few points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker is another rubber stamp for Leader Mcconnell he doesn't believe in Voting Rights