Missouri Gubernatorial Race 2008: Matt Blunt v. Jay Nixon

[RBH]

And maybe someone else will run.

Matt Blunt: 37 on election day 2008, Secretary of state from 2001 to 2005, State Legislator from 1999 to 2001. Currently has a 36% job approval rating after a first year where he kicked a bunch of people off of medicaid, while also endorsing embryonic stem cell research.

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Jay Nixon: Attorney General from 1993 to 2009, ran for the Senate in 1988 and 1998. Got squashed by Danforth in 1988 and lost by 9 points to Kit Bond in 1998. Won re-election with 59% in 1996, 60% in 2000, and 60% in 2004.

So basically this is a matchup between the unpopular Boy Wonder, Matt Blunt, and Jay Nixon, who isn't totally loved by Democrats.

Of course, the fun occurs down ballot, where I'm pretty sure someone like Gibbons or Koster could run for Attorney General, and i'm also suspecting that Matt Bartle could try and run for Attorney General.

But yeah, take your pick, Little Blunt or Jay Nixon

[Nutmeg]

Nixon should easily have this one.

[RBH]

Matt Bartle is a State Senator from Lee's Summit (Jackson County). He won re-election this year, and also defeated a moderate who was challenging him.

Some portions of Bartle bills include:

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And here's the bio on Bartle:

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As for Steelman. She won't win. She'd have to make some pretty big advances into Blunt's base to pull off a victory.

Also, keep the state elections the way they are.

[RBH]

Bartle won his primary by a 60/37 margin.

As for keeping them the way they are. It keeps turnout high for state elections.

[Adlai Stevenson]

According to a poll earlier this year:

MISSOURI GOVERNOR
Nixon (D) 52%
Blunt (R) 39%

[RBH]

Well, let's take a look at how the state split in voting in the August GOP primary



Southeast: 6%
St. Louis: 23%
Col/Jeff: 9%
Kansas City: 11%
Rolla: 7%
Southwest: 26%
West Central: 9%
Northwest: 5%
Northeast: 4%

In 2004, those percentages were 5% in SEMO, 24% in STL, 8% in CJ, 13% in KC, 6% in Rolla, 25% in SW MO, 5% in NW MO, and 5% in NEMO

So, for a hypothetical Hulshof/Blunt/Talent/Steelman race, here's how it would break down

Southeast: Possible Steelman plurality
St. Louis: Talent wins
Col/Jeff: Hulshof wins
Kansas City: Wide open
Rolla: Steelman wins
Southwest: Blunt wins
West Central: Wide open
Northwest: Wide open
Northeast: Hulshof wins, 2/3rds of voters there vote in the Democratic primary anyways

I doubt that Talent or Hulshof will run.

And Steelman only wins if somebody strong runs for office out of Springfield or Joplin, and splits votes from Blunt.

But, I'd rather face Blunt than Steelman. Sorta like how Republicans would have rather faced Holden instead of McCaskill.

As for Callahan running statewide, I doubt it'll happen.

[RBH]

And here's some maps.

Treasurer: Steelman (R) v. Powell (D)



Secretary of State: Carnahan (D) v. The Wicked Witch of the East (R)

[RBH]

Yeah, sure. He hasn't really done anything wrong in his job.

And here's some Attorney General maps.

Attorney General: Nixon (D) v. Chris Byrd (R)



And from 1996: Nixon v. Bredemeier



Southwest Missouri splits

2004: 51/46 Byrd
1996: 49/47 Nixon