When Did George W. Bush become the frontrunner for 2000

[elcorazon]

I was thinking about all the 2008 talk and how early it is and I was wondering if Dubya had already announced and/or become the favorite for 2000 by November of 1998.  Any way to see tradesports numbers that far back (did they even exist then?)?  just wondering if anyone knows or could point me in the right direction.

[J. J.]

1996.

[elcorazon]

are you being facetious?  I know it was early, but if there was any sort of actual odds (tradesports like) I'd be curious if he was already favored that early.  Didn't he truly become the favorite after winning reelection in 1998 for governor?

[J. J.]

are you being facetious?  I know it was early, but if there was any sort of actual odds (tradesports like) I'd be curious if he was already favored that early.  Didn't he truly become the favorite after winning reelection in 1998 for governor?

No, in terms of the nomination, he became the front runner just after Clinton was re-elected, "The guy to beat."  Had he lost re-election, he would have probably lost front runner status.  I think in 1996, he was even polling ahead of the rest of the field.

The closest he came to losing it was after the NH primary.  I actually wrote a private circulation paper in late 1999 where I said something like, "The Republican Primary will either be a long battle where that tenacious Texan George W. Bush battles to capture the nomination, or the coronation His Royal Republican Highness, George III, Heir Apparent and Grand Duke of Texas."

[elcorazon]

are you being facetious?  I know it was early, but if there was any sort of actual odds (tradesports like) I'd be curious if he was already favored that early.  Didn't he truly become the favorite after winning reelection in 1998 for governor?

No, in terms of the nomination, he became the front runner just after Clinton was re-elected, "The guy to beat."  Had he lost re-election, he would have probably lost front runner status.  I think in 1996, he was even polling ahead of the rest of the field.

The closest he came to losing it was after the NH primary.  I actually wrote a private circulation paper in late 1999 where I said something like, "The Republican Primary will either be a long battle where that tenacious Texan George W. Bush battles to capture the nomination, or the coronation His Royal Republican Highness, George III, Heir Apparent and Grand Duke of Texas."

I suspected that might have been true.  But it wasn't similar to Hillary where it was just assumed he'd win, was it?  As I recall, his 1998 election cemented him as the frontrunner, but there was still a fair amount of doubt.  Honestly though I just don't remember.  Maybe it was always his election to lose (or nomination anyway).

[J. J.]

"Front runner" does not equate with, "He will win the nomination."  It is, "He is most likely to win the nomination."  Muskie was the "front runner" in 1971, and look where that got him.

[elcorazon]

"Front runner" does not equate with, "He will win the nomination."  It is, "He is most likely to win the nomination."  Muskie was the "front runner" in 1971, and look where that got him.

I know that.  I'm just trying to recall the history of how Bush's ultimate nomination came to be. 

At this point Hillary is the frontrunner.  She is a strong frontrunner.  She may or may not get the nomination.  We are still nearly 2 years from the general and more than 14 months from the first primary.  Obviously, Kerry was nowhere near a frontrunner at this point in 2002.  Gore, however, was probably the presumed candidate in 1998. 

I suspect you have some idea of where his support was throughout this stretch, but if you don't, maybe you know where one could try and get a graph of polls, or some sort of tradesports like history of how the public perceived the race from very early on.

[True Democrat]

I thought Kerry was the frontrunner at this time.  I'm pretty sure party insiders  supporters wanted Kerry, but then Dean took the spotlight sometime in 2003.

[memphis]

Maybe if I legally change my name to Bill W. Clinton, I can be handed the Dem nomination in 2008.

[J. J.]

At this point Hillary is the frontrunner.  She is a strong frontrunner.  She may or may not get the nomination.  We are still nearly 2 years from the general and more than 14 months from the first primary.  Obviously, Kerry was nowhere near a frontrunner at this point in 2002.  Gore, however, was probably the presumed candidate in 1998. 

I suspect you have some idea of where his support was throughout this stretch, but if you don't, maybe you know where one could try and get a graph of polls, or some sort of tradesports like history of how the public perceived the race from very early on.

No, I don't have the poll numbers, but after Michigan, I do recall being polled.  California is where McCain basically said it was over.

If you define front runner as being ahead in the polls for the GOP nomination, it was 1996.

[muon2]

At this point in 1998 I recall GWB as the front runner only by virtue of his fundraising. In IL he had not really done much to court rank-and-file GOPers at that time. The names I recall instead included Forbes, Alexander, McCain, Hatch and primarily Elizabeth Dole. She had active rallies in 1999 in the Chicago suburbs, one of which I attended. But for lack of fundraising, I think she would have done well in IL in the primary based on her time spent in the state.

[elcorazon]

At this point Hillary is the frontrunner.  She is a strong frontrunner.  She may or may not get the nomination.  We are still nearly 2 years from the general and more than 14 months from the first primary.  Obviously, Kerry was nowhere near a frontrunner at this point in 2002.  Gore, however, was probably the presumed candidate in 1998. 

I suspect you have some idea of where his support was throughout this stretch, but if you don't, maybe you know where one could try and get a graph of polls, or some sort of tradesports like history of how the public perceived the race from very early on.

No, I don't have the poll numbers, but after Michigan, I do recall being polled.  California is where McCain basically said it was over.

If you define front runner as being ahead in the polls for the GOP nomination, it was 1996.

I guess I do mean being ahead in the polls, but only if it's a substantial lead.  I'm guessing that in November 1998, no one in either party would poll over 30%.  What I'm trying to find out is, if I'm right.  I know Dubya dominated the race almost from wire to wire.  I just don't know when it became "his race to lose" as opposed to a race where he seemed to stand a good chance.