Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I vote for landing troops (preferably American, but if the rest of NATO can be convinced to send Troops that would be great) in Istanbul and moving to overthrow Erdogan.

Your threat worked!

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

lotta Kurds about to get killed in Syria, huh

[PSOL]

lotta Kurds about to get killed in Syria, huh

They rolled the wrong dice in the house’s game, what can I say.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

In return, Sweden will support a reopening of Turkey's ascension negotiations to the EU, sell more weapons to Turkey, and "cooperate" on terrorism and crime.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In return, Sweden will support a reopening of Turkey's ascension negotiations to the EU, sell more weapons to Turkey, and "cooperate" on terrorism and crime.

ah

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In return, Sweden will support a reopening of Turkey's ascension negotiations to the EU, sell more weapons to Turkey, and "cooperate" on terrorism and crime.

ah

They agreed to this, and the rest of it, in the previous deal which led to Turkey removing their veto on starting the formal accession process.

I’m not sure what Turkey has clearly gained here. In terms of weapons sales, they seemed more concerned with American restrictions on F-16 upgrades and re-entry into the F-35 program.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

lotta Kurds about to get killed in Syria, huh

They rolled the wrong dice in the house’s game, what can I say.

The ones in Afrin were sold out as well. A cards analogy would fit better here, because Rojava and its predecessors have never held anything approaching a strong hand (and probably never will).

[Blue3]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under threat, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Switzerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

[Oryxslayer]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under thread, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Swtizerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

While Austria in the past had legitimate constitutional reasons to avoid membership, today those could easily change with a little effort. Its just the ultimate beneficiary of the Free Rider effect so why bother.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under thread, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Swtizerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

Austria and Ireland also have political traditions of neutrality similar to Switzerland's. Ireland remained neutral in World War II and Austrian neutrality was a prerequisite for regaining sovereignty from the Allies after WWII.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under thread, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Swtizerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

Technically not the only ones, but most others are non-starters. There are the various microstates, the Caucasus states + Kazakhstan (most forget these are all eligible for EU and NATO memberships), Malta and Cyprus.

[Oryxslayer]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under thread, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Swtizerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

Technically not the only ones, but most others are non-starters. There are the various microstates, the Caucasus states + Kazakhstan (most forget these are all eligible for EU and NATO memberships), Malta and Cyprus.

I mean going down the list suggest that NATO right now is close to maximum potential size:

- Switzerland is never joining serious multi-country treaty groups with stipulations.

- The microstates all have no traditional foreign policy comparable to other countries. There is no point to membership in any military treaty when there essentially is no military.

- Kosovo, B&H, Georgia, Moldova, Cyprus, and especially Ukraine all seemingly have some significant desire for membership. They all though have territorial integrity/full sovereignty issues in certain capacities that would stall attempts at entry. Notably in Moldova there is some pollable desire for entrance via joining Romania, though that would still require resolving Transnistria. Azerbaijan might be in this group to if there was local desire.

- Serbia, Belarus, Armenia, and Kazakhstan all remain aligned with Russia. Belarus would probably join in the event of government collapse and the opposition coming in.

- Austria as mentioned has constitutional provisions against such membership forced by the Soviets in order for them to accept post-WWII reunification. There was some desire to change this and follow Sweden and Finland in 2022, but the free rider phenomenon presently remains strong.

- Ireland was previously in many of the categories here. Ireland initially didn't want to support anything the British did during and after WWII. Then during the Cold War the British probably would have vetoed any hypothetical attempts at entry because of the Provisionals, even though support within the Republic was never wide or deep enough to get Sinn Fein politicians elected. Now, when there is renewed interest in NATO, Brexit has complicated Irish foreign policy. Additionally, Sinn Fein is now a powerful player in politics on the Island, and while this growth is in spite of rather than thanks to 32 County Nationalism, refusal to even talk with NATO remains a legacy position.


This leaves Malta, already an EU member, as the only county that probably could join NATO tomorrow without complications. However, it seems as if Malta's history with significant UK military presences has left a population who like the position of neutrality established in the middle of the Cold War. This hasn't stopped Malta from cooperating with NATO in the past decade. If Malta felt threatened, like Sweden and Finland in 2022 because of how Russia liked to violate their airspace and national waters, Malta's politicians would no doubt suddenly find support for changing past policy.

[MasterJedi]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under thread, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Swtizerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

Austria and Ireland also have political traditions of neutrality similar to Switzerland's. Ireland remained neutral in World War II and Austrian neutrality was a prerequisite for regaining sovereignty from the Allies after WWII.

Except the Russian ships invading Irish waters sniffing the cable locations between North America and Europe. I imagine Ireland will eventually join as their defense force can’t really defend anything and Russia will continue to violate their waters.

[MayorCarcetti]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under thread, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Swtizerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

Austria and Ireland also have political traditions of neutrality similar to Switzerland's. Ireland remained neutral in World War II and Austrian neutrality was a prerequisite for regaining sovereignty from the Allies after WWII.

Except the Russian ships invading Irish waters sniffing the cable locations between North America and Europe. I imagine Ireland will eventually join as their defense force can’t really defend anything and Russia will continue to violate their waters.

TBH even that won't make it happen, there was uproar recently at the mere suggestion of having a conversation about NATO membership with our president getting involved. I think while not ideal, the Russians violating our waters won't move the needle enough for there to be public approval of joining NATO (it quite likely will have to go to a referendum because neutrality is so enshrined in our constitution). I think also we have this unspoken feeling that if something really bad was to happen (invasion) the Brits would intervene because its also a risk to them (or they will be a buffer for us if the invasion is coming eastwards). Rightly or wrongly, we don't see the advantages overcoming the disadvantages. So basically we are happy to free load

[Pres Mike]

After Sweden, invite Ireland, Austria, Bosnia and Kosovo.

After the war, invite Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1678487211765911552?s=20

I wonder if the turkish parliament will vote before Turkey gets the things that where promised.

Anyway the Turkish play is simple:

Enjoy the benefits of the EU without ever being burdened by membership to it.
Enlarge it's military with more western weapons.

Free movement between the EU and Turkey needs a lot of thought from a greek point of view.

Any refugees will go straight to northern europe bypassing Greece, and Greeks may resettle to Turkey. On the other hand with a 9-1 population advantage the Turks would assimilate Greece, perhaps Bulgaria and Cyprus too.

[Cashew]

Sweeden gets to join NATO imminently, while Turkey get unwritten promisies to support the reopening of negotiations to join the EU, (not actually joining it) at some point in the future. A face saving, but unambiguous defeat for Erdogan.

[Storr]

October?! Ugh....

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1679143699173744645?s=20

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Erdogan in September, "Actually, I want NASA to fly a Turk to the moon before we allow Sweden into NATO".

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Just my opinion, however, Turkey should never be allowed into the EU.

I don't view Turkey as a "European" country (it really isn't. It's mostly in West Asia/the Middle East) and Turkey is not a trustworthy "ally".

Also, f**k Erdogan.

[Storr]

October?! Ugh....

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1679143699173744645?s=20

Ah, so whenever the F-16 sales to Turkey pass Congress, Sweden's accession to NATO just might be approved by Turkey soon after. It's hard to have a quid pro quo when one of the parties is publicly talking about it.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1679145478255169537?s=20

This is important, as I doubt the F-16 sales would pass Congress without a promise/guarantee to not use them against Greece.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1679146961608359938?s=20

[Storr]

""We will take up work in mid-September" Nemeth, the head of Hungarian parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, told private broadcaster InfoRadio.

There is no need to move sooner as Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will not forward the ratification of Sweden's NATO membership to the Turkish parliament until it reopens in the autumn, he said."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-signals-its-likely-back-swedens-nato-bid-autumn-2023-07-13/

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Curious... I doubt Ireland is under threat, but it seems to be the last European country that I'm kind of curious why it hasn't joined. The others are just Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova/Russia, a few former Yugoslavian countries already surrounded/protected by NATO, neutral Switzerland also surrounded/protected by NATO, and I think that's Austria? Maybe Austria is the only other country I'm curious why... but it's also surrounded/protected by NATO.

Do you think the country that gave us Mick Wallace and Claire Whatsherface will join NATO?

[Хahar 🤔]

Just my opinion, however, Turkey should never be allowed into the EU.

I don't view Turkey as a "European" country (it really isn't. It's mostly in West Asia/the Middle East) and Turkey is not a trustworthy "ally".

Also, f**k Erdogan.

Is Cyprus a European country? Is Ukraine? Are Georgia and Armenia?

[Middle-aged Europe]

If Turkey were a stable democracy (that looked like it would stay that way in the long-term) I would hypothetically support admitting them to the EU. That's pretty hypothetical though.