In which governors races will Dems perform better than 2018 (in terms of margin?)

[ProgressiveModerate]

2022 is likely to be a significantly worse year overall for Dems but dynamics in a few governors races might allow them to have better performances

MD and MA are 2 pretty obvious ones for the reason the popular R incumbent in retiring.

AZ prolly falls in this category too, even though I think Dems more likely to lose than not.

Texas will be interesting to watch as well to see if Abbott overperformance or underperforms his own 2018 performance as in 2018 Dems basically ran a nobody and didn’t take the race as seriously.

I suppose there’s a chance in GA too.

CT seems like a possibility too even if it’s the same matchup

[Minnesota Mike]

MD & MA are obvious choices. I would definitely also add TX & AZ since I highly doubt either of them will be double digit races. Maybe GA. CT? NH if you compare it to it's last election 2020 instead of 2018. 2018 was a really good Gov year for Democrats and even if they have a good 2022 it will be tough to match 2018 margins.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Connecticut seems obvious- Lamont's approval ratings are up by 20% since the last election. MA and MD are obvious, and I think AZ and TX go there as well.

[President Johnson]

In addition to the already named, Newsom could actually outperform his 2018 margin. He already tied that performance in the 2021 recall.

Oregon is a remote possibility, too, as Kate Brown underperformed in 2018. She did even worse than in the 2016 special election, in a much less Democratic friendly year.

Another possibility is New York. While it's not superlikely, Hochul could exceed Cuomo's margin or at least the 59% vote share.

[iceman]

Minnesota

[Unelectable Bystander]

Before all the red avatars start rushing to say Texas, just remember the GCB in North Carolina is R +12 currently

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: Other than Massachusetts, Maryland, and maybe Arizona, none.

[Schiff for Senate]

What others have said: MA and MD for sure, and GA/TX/CT/AZ are all possible (AZ, CT and TX quite so given how much Ducey/Abbott won by in 2018, though GA is very likely to see the GOP margin expand from 2018).

If I had to guess: MA, MD, AZ, CT and TX.

[Schiff for Senate]

In addition to the already named, Newsom could actually outperform his 2018 margin. He already tied that performance in the 2021 recall.

Oregon is a remote possibility, too, as Kate Brown underperformed in 2018. She did even worse than in the 2016 special election, in a much less Democratic friendly year.

Another possibility is New York. While it's not superlikely, Hochul could exceed Cuomo's margin or at least the 59% vote share.

I think CA maybe, NY unlikely but possible, and OR very unlikely.

[Dr. MB]

Before all the red avatars start rushing to say Texas, just remember the GCB in North Carolina is R +12 currently

North Carolina isn’t up for election in 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Leave it to Progressive Moderate to say D's chances are worse than 2018 did you know we won less votes than we did overall than 2020, I am not sure the vote Total we didn't win 80M votes why did we do better than in 2020, because Trump voters didn't come out

RS UNDERPERFORMED in KY Gov race too when Trump wasn't on the ballot, Rs are not gonna get 75 M votes like last time, it's probably 75/60 M it's VBM but D's can certainly get to 80 M but Rs aren't assured 75 M.
.
FL, deSantis won by .5 we can still win, because DeSantis UNDERPERFORMED in 2018 it's a myth that's he's gonna win by double digits and if we win FL or TX we can certainly win the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In addition to the already named, Newsom could actually outperform his 2018 margin. He already tied that performance in the 2021 recall.

Oregon is a remote possibility, too, as Kate Brown underperformed in 2018. She did even worse than in the 2016 special election, in a much less Democratic friendly year.

Another possibility is New York. While it's not superlikely, Hochul could exceed Cuomo's margin or at least the 59% vote share.

It's obviously FL, you guys really think DeSantis is gonna win by 12 and he won by 0.5 last time against a Socialist, Crist can certainly win

[Chips]

Aside from MA and MD, CT is a very real possibility, as is AZ. TX and GA could also be interesting in this regard.

[xavier110]

AZ for sure. Ducey won by almost a 15-point margin in ‘18, and I don’t see Lake or Robson achieving that feat.

[One Term Floridian]

Non-battleground states where the parties are all but certain to improve from 2018:

Dems: MA, MD
GOP: SD, IA, OK, OH, AL, FL

Likely to improve:

Dems: AR
GOP: VT, NH, ID, TN, IL, NE, AK

Might improve:

Dems: CO, CA, TX, HI, NY
GOP: NY, RI, WY, SC, HI, NY

Battleground states (some overlap here) :

Dems: AZ, GA, WI, OR
GOP: PA, MI, GA, WI, NM, KS, NV, OR, ME, MN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL DeSantis isnt winning by 9/12 pts he underpolled Gillum by 0.5

FL and TX X are keys to keeping the H

[Mr. Smith]

Arizona, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont, and possibly Idaho.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis won by 0.5 I seriously doubt D's are contesting VT since Sue Minter and Zuckerberg aren't running and Idaho

[DS0816]

• Massachusetts
• Maryland

Those are obvious.



• Arizona
• New Hampshire
• Vermont

Those are considered.


The 2018-to-2022 Republicans will increase their percentage-points margins in nearly or all of the rest. Around 30 of the 36 states.

[DS0816]

It's obviously FL, you guys really think DeSantis is gonna win by 12 and he won by 0.5 last time against a Socialist, Crist can certainly win

The Democrats have no feasible shot at flipping the governorship in Florida.

Ron DeSantis will win re-election by at least +6 percentage points. May be closer to—perhaps even reach—+10. This is due to both his popularity and that the midterm elections of 2022 are going to be wave in favor of his political party.

I anticipate Ohio’s Mike DeWine will get re-elected by a similar level in percentage-points margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's obviously FL, you guys really think DeSantis is gonna win by 12 and he won by 0.5 last time against a Socialist, Crist can certainly win

The Democrats have no feasible shot at flipping the governorship in Florida.

Ron DeSantis will win re-election by at least +6 percentage points. May be closer to—perhaps even reach—+10. This is due to both his popularity and that the midterm elections of 2022 are going to be wave in favor of his political party.

I anticipate Ohio’s Mike DeWine will get re-elected by a similar level in percentage-points margin.

You gotta be kidding me DeSantis won by 0.5 against a Socialist Afro Americans do you know the polls have been all over the place Crist plus 3 DeSantis plus 16 and DeSantis plus 11 I like how users think that just because they make a declaration the race is Over, 🚫

I am not Donating but Crist like all Red state D have 1/3 Rd of a chance of winning as I see it and no one says Ron Johnson is out of it in blue state WI he only has 1)3 Rd of a chance to win because he never ran with Evers he ran with Walker

Barnes and Fetterman have 2/3rds of a chance of beating Oz and Johnson, the Rs only won by 200 K votes and Walker isn't up by 10 in blue state GA if Abrams is up by 1, polls are blaming the gas prices on Biden that's why their numbers are inflated

I need to see more polling but they only poll NY Gov

[DS0816]

It's obviously FL, you guys really think DeSantis is gonna win by 12 and he won by 0.5 last time against a Socialist, Crist can certainly win

The Democrats have no feasible shot at flipping the governorship in Florida.

Ron DeSantis will win re-election by at least +6 percentage points. May be closer to—perhaps even reach—+10. This is due to both his popularity and that the midterm elections of 2022 are going to be wave in favor of his political party.

I anticipate Ohio’s Mike DeWine will get re-elected by a similar level in percentage-points margin.

You gotta be kidding me DeSantis won by 0.5 against a Socialist Afro Americans do you know the polls have been all over the place Crist plus 3 DeSantis plus 16 and DeSantis plus 11 I like how users think that just because they make a declaration the race is Over, 🚫

…

The 2018 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. Governors by +3.07 percentage points. (Outcome: Democratic 50.37% vs. Republican 47.30%.) Ron DeSantis won a Republican hold for Governor of Florida by +0.40. So, DeSantis ran an extra +3 to +4 above the Republicans’s national performance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

BLAH, BLAH, BLA, BLAH just do your civic duty and vote just like I will there is no R wave until w vote

We can all make up polls until we get a result did you know D's won less votes than we did in 2019 we won 80 M votes we didn't win that in 2017 EITHER

[DS0816]

…
Barnes and Fetterman have 2/3rds of a chance of beating Oz and Johnson, …

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate will end up retained by the Republicans while they win majority control pickup of the upper chamber of Congress.

I anticipate the 2022 Democrats will not flip any U.S. Senate seats currently in the column for the Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

…
Barnes and Fetterman have 2/3rds of a chance of beating Oz and Johnson, …

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate will end up retained by the Republicans while they win majority control pickup of the upper chamber of Congress.

I anticipate the 2022 Democrats will not flip any U.S. Senate seats currently in the column for the Republicans.

BLAH BLAH BLA BLAH