NH-SEN University of New Hampshire/WMUR: Hassan in Dead Heats with Challengers

[2016]

Chuck Morse (R) 46 %
Maggie Hassan (D, Incumbent) 44 %

Maggie Hassan (D, Incumbent) 47 %
Don Bolduc (R) 46 %

Maggie Hassan (D, Incumbent) 45 %
Kevin Smith (R) 44 %

Maggie Hassan (D, Incumbent) 46 %
Bruce Fenton (R) 40 %

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/693/

[SnowLabrador]

Yep, it's gonna be a red wave.

[2016]

Yep, it's gonna be a red wave.

If you look at the Crosstabs of the Poll and particularly the Independent Vote (largest in the State, outnumbers both D's & R's) that should indeed frighten some National Democrats.

If Republicans win Indies in NH there is no reason to believe that they won't win them elsewhere.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

LOL she's only up by one against BOLDUC

[Calthrina950]

LOL she's only up by one against BOLDUC

I've noticed that Hassan has been trying to present herself as a moderate recently. She actually went down to the Mexican border and filmed a campaign ad there, claiming that she supports measures to "secure the border". I also believe that she is one of the ten Senate Democrats who have expressed doubts about Biden's plans to end Title 42. Nevertheless, these gambits don't appear to be working, and she is in for a tight race.

[UncleSam]

Seems pretty clear that the race is very close vs Morse, moderately Hassan favored vs Bolduc, and anyone else is fairly far behind.

Given Hassan is an incumbent and should be decently far ahead right now, this is very bad news for her. I’d rate Morse as Lean R, Bolduc as toss up, and anyone else as Lean D right now tbh.

[wbrocks67]

This poll also gives her a 35/51 favorability which I.... doubt.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Seems pretty clear that the race is very close vs Morse, moderately Hassan favored vs Bolduc, and anyone else is fairly far behind.

Given Hassan is an incumbent and should be decently far ahead right now, this is very bad news for her. I’d rate Morse as Lean R, Bolduc as toss up, and anyone else as Lean D right now tbh.

I generally agree, although since Bolduc is literally the worst possible candidate to run in NH (a ultra-macho warhawk who is rhetorically insane is the opposite of a "good" NH candidate), I would say anyone else is a tossup, as once they get name rec some other candidate could possibly do well.

[ElectionsGuy]

LOL she's only up by one against BOLDUC

The candidate-quality memes are going to be deliciously roasted this year.

If it isn't clear by now, most of the Republican vote this year, including by many independents, is anti-Democrat and nothing much deeper. That's why a Senate president got voted out by a truck driver. That's why Democrats in Virginia uniformly got around the same % statewide and in state legislative seats. And that's why, to many "smart" people's bafflement, the Republicans will get around the same percentage regardless of running a stop-the-steal Trump loyalist or a Mitch McConnell type.

Candidate quality probably matters more in New Hampshire than it does in other states, but it's just not the defining thing the pundits think it is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users are Doom too much it's only April

[Calthrina950]

This poll also gives her a 35/51 favorability which I.... doubt.

What do you think her actual favorability is? Close to what her polling numbers are?

[New England Fire Squad]

That is an absolutely brutal poll. Anyone else think that there's a decent chance Ayotte announces for a rematch?

[SnowLabrador]

This poll also gives her a 35/51 favorability which I.... doubt.

She's getting dragged underwater by Biden's low approval ratings. That's what's happening. This year, you can't elect a Democratic dog-catcher.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

LOL she's only up by one against BOLDUC

The candidate-quality memes are going to be deliciously roasted this year.

If it isn't clear by now, most of the Republican vote this year, including by many independents, is anti-Democrat and nothing much deeper. That's why a Senate president got voted out by a truck driver. That's why Democrats in Virginia uniformly got around the same % statewide and in state legislative seats. And that's why, to many "smart" people's bafflement, the Republicans will get around the same percentage regardless of running a stop-the-steal Trump loyalist or a Mitch McConnell type.

Candidate quality probably matters more in New Hampshire than it does in other states, but it's just not the defining thing the pundits think it is.

I agree.
Morse (a typical "strong candidate") and Bolduc (who is 100% the worst possible candidate for Republicans in this race for many reasons) are only 2% apart in their polling against Hassan. This indicates that "candidate quality" is pretty meaningless.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

That is an absolutely brutal poll. Anyone else think that there's a decent chance Ayotte announces for a rematch?

I don't think it's likely.

[free my dawg]

F**k around and find out.

[MT Treasurer]

Here’s hoping that the GOP manages to turn "MAGA Maggie" into this year's "Mark Uterus." Rarely a good idea to reinforce your opponent's projected image, but when an attempt at re-branding is this transparently performative and insincere, the ensuing mirth reflects the incumbent's desperation more so than their "bipartisanship."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here’s hoping that the GOP manages to turn "MAGA Maggie" into this year's "Mark Uterus." Rarely a good idea to reinforce your opponent's projected image, but when an attempt at re-branding is this transparently performative and insincere, the ensuing mirth reflects the incumbent's desperation more so than their "bipartisanship."

Ah the Gov race is gonna get real close between Sununu and Sherman that race is far from over Sununu in one poll was not leading 70(30 he was leading 51/24 that will help Hassan the Gov race when it does get close in September

Sununu and Scott always start out 70/30 and it gets close like 51/44% in the Fall remember 2018

D's won far fewer votes in 2018 than 2020 but Rs underperforming because Trump wasn't on the ballot

[Respect and Compassion]

Yep, it's gonna be a red wave.

The best thing I can say for Hassan's chances is that if he's currently in the mid-40s, she theoretically would just need to win over an extra 5% of the electorate that's the most amenable to her. These are likely people who disapproved of Trump and currently disapprove of Biden. It's doable, but someone like Morse may have an easier time winning those voters over than a person with a D next to their name.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Here’s hoping that the GOP manages to turn "MAGA Maggie" into this year's "Mark Uterus." Rarely a good idea to reinforce your opponent's projected image, but when an attempt at re-branding is this transparently performative and insincere, the ensuing mirth reflects the incumbent's desperation more so than their "bipartisanship."

To be fair, she was against Syrian refugees in 2015. I think she is genuinely not super leftwing on immigration.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

And so much for everyone saying that Hassan would be safe in 2022 with Sununu out.

Having this race be tilt R for now, really depends on the candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users making a big fuss about this poll realiy

[I’m not Stu]

Yep, it's gonna be a red wave.

The best thing I can say for Hassan's chances is that if he's currently in the mid-40s, she theoretically would just need to win over an extra 5% of the electorate that's the most amenable to her. These are likely people who disapproved of Trump and currently disapprove of Biden. It's doable, but someone like Morse may have an easier time winning those voters over than a person with a D next to their name.

Morse probably won't be the GOP nominee.

[kwabbit]

Yep, it's gonna be a red wave.

The best thing I can say for Hassan's chances is that if he's currently in the mid-40s, she theoretically would just need to win over an extra 5% of the electorate that's the most amenable to her. These are likely people who disapproved of Trump and currently disapprove of Biden. It's doable, but someone like Morse may have an easier time winning those voters over than a person with a D next to their name.

Morse probably won't be the GOP nominee.

We'll see if he get's enough institutional support to make him relevant, but he's polling 2% among GOP primary voters, which is ridiculously low. I thought him and Bolduc were 1A and 1B, but that's clearly not the case.

[I’m not Stu]

Yep, it's gonna be a red wave.

The best thing I can say for Hassan's chances is that if he's currently in the mid-40s, she theoretically would just need to win over an extra 5% of the electorate that's the most amenable to her. These are likely people who disapproved of Trump and currently disapprove of Biden. It's doable, but someone like Morse may have an easier time winning those voters over than a person with a D next to their name.

Morse probably won't be the GOP nominee.

We'll see if he get's enough institutional support to make him relevant, but he's polling 2% among GOP primary voters, which is ridiculously low. I thought him and Bolduc were 1A and 1B, but that's clearly not the case.

Bolduc is 1A. There's no 1B.