Which will vote Democratic first: Kansas or Missouri?

[Schiff for Senate]

No question, KS. It is trending leftward pretty fast. There are tons of statistics to back this, but here's just one: from 2008-2020, KS has swung slightly to the left and MO has swug more than 15 points to the right.

[Schiff for Senate]

Much more interesting and difficult question without a clear answer: MO or IN?

See this excerpt from a post from me to MarkD:

"IN and MO: This one's very tough to answer given how very similarly they vote presidentially (both were very close in 2008, voted for Romney by about 10 points in 2012, and then settled down to voting for Trump by 16-20 points in 2016 and 2020), and even downballot (both elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2012 following the GOP candidates making gaffes on abortion, and in both cases, the Democrat lost by a good amount in 2018). Their trends from  are also basically the same: From 2012 to 2020, IN swung 5.9 points rightward; MO swung 6.0 points rigthward. From 2012 to 2016, IN swung 9.0 points rightward and MO swung 9.3 points rightward. From 2016 to 2020, IN swung 3.1 points leftward and MO swung 3.2 points leftward. So there's really no clear answer at all. In fact, I'd say currently, no two states might be quite as perfectly similar to each other as IN and MO (they're also two of just a handful of states that have governor races in presidential election years, actually). Ultimately, you could say MO just by virtue of it voting slightly to the left of IN in 2012, 2016 and 2020. On the other hand, I feel like St Louis is still shrinking, which could be more problematic in keeping the GOP margin down (while in contrast, Indianapolis is doing all right). So I can't answer this question at all. All I can say is that my gut feeling is that IN might be very slightly more likely to flip than MO, but I'm not sure and in practice it's exactly 50-50."