Which will vote Democratic first: Kansas or Missouri?

[Senator Incitatus]

In 2020, Kansas was Trump +14.65 and Missouri was Trump +15.39. This was the first time Missouri was more Republican than Kansas since 1916 and only the second time since Kansas statehood.

[TDAS04]

Kansas, most likely.

[Schiff for Senate]

No question, KS. It is trending leftward pretty fast. There are tons of statistics to back this, but here's just one: from 2008-2020, KS has swung slightly to the left and MO has swug more than 15 points to the right.

[Schiff for Senate]

Much more interesting and difficult question without a clear answer: MO or IN?

See this excerpt from a post from me to MarkD:

"IN and MO: This one's very tough to answer given how very similarly they vote presidentially (both were very close in 2008, voted for Romney by about 10 points in 2012, and then settled down to voting for Trump by 16-20 points in 2016 and 2020), and even downballot (both elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2012 following the GOP candidates making gaffes on abortion, and in both cases, the Democrat lost by a good amount in 2018). Their trends from  are also basically the same: From 2012 to 2020, IN swung 5.9 points rightward; MO swung 6.0 points rigthward. From 2012 to 2016, IN swung 9.0 points rightward and MO swung 9.3 points rightward. From 2016 to 2020, IN swung 3.1 points leftward and MO swung 3.2 points leftward. So there's really no clear answer at all. In fact, I'd say currently, no two states might be quite as perfectly similar to each other as IN and MO (they're also two of just a handful of states that have governor races in presidential election years, actually). Ultimately, you could say MO just by virtue of it voting slightly to the left of IN in 2012, 2016 and 2020. On the other hand, I feel like St Louis is still shrinking, which could be more problematic in keeping the GOP margin down (while in contrast, Indianapolis is doing all right). So I can't answer this question at all. All I can say is that my gut feeling is that IN might be very slightly more likely to flip than MO, but I'm not sure and in practice it's exactly 50-50."

[SInNYC]

Recent elections in KS can not be considered a trend. They reflect a Republican governor (Brownback) who failed at pretty much everything he did, and moreover reality ended up being diametrically opposite of everything he claimed his economic policies would do. Everything isnt a data science problem.

Having said that I do think that KS will go D first, since the southern 1/3 of MO is growing and very southern.

[Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez]

At this point, I'd say Kansas.  Although neither is likely R in the near future.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Eastern Kansas in particular has trended significantly to the left over the last two decades or so and D's have a significant ceiling they could reach. I doubt it will become a swing state anytime soon but it could become competitive during a particularly strong D wave.

Missouri on the other hand I think is mostly maxed out. There's still some room around the Kansas City area and some of the Saint Louis exurbs but I think that's the only area and I anticipate that the Bootheel area still has some room to drop as some of the older, more Democratic population dies off.

[MarkD]

I think Missouri is more likely, because I think the electorate there is more flexible than the electorate in Kansas. I think Trumpism has caused many people to think that the rural areas of MO have permanently shifted to the GOP by huge margins. But I think Trumpism is not going to last for much longer, and when many rural voters have gotten Trump out of their system, they may revert to some of their ancestral moderate Democratic tendencies.

[One Term Floridian]

I think Missouri is more likely, because I think the electorate there is more flexible than the electorate in Kansas. I think Trumpism has caused many people to think that the rural areas of MO have permanently shifted to the GOP by huge margins. But I think Trumpism is not going to last for much longer, and when many rural voters have gotten Trump out of their system, they may revert to some of their ancestral moderate Democratic tendencies.

Other than a hunch, what makes you think that? If anything, I think these areas could become even more Republican. Aside from a dead cat bounce leftward or a heavily negative environment against an incumbent Republican like W, I don't see these areas moving leftward anytime soon.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Missouri is more likely, because I think the electorate there is more flexible than the electorate in Kansas. I think Trumpism has caused many people to think that the rural areas of MO have permanently shifted to the GOP by huge margins. But I think Trumpism is not going to last for much longer, and when many rural voters have gotten Trump out of their system, they may revert to some of their ancestral moderate Democratic tendencies.

Other than a hunch, what makes you think that? If anything, I think these areas could become even more Republican. Aside from a dead cat bounce leftward or a heavily negative environment against an incumbent Republican like W, I don't see these areas moving leftward anytime soon.

To add on to this, MO rurals represent a significantly higher share o9f the state's population than KS rurals. A lot of R votes in KS still come out of major cities like Witicha and Johnson COunty. I'd argue these voters would be more flexible if anything.

[here2view]

Kansas and it's not really debatable.

[progressive85]

I don't think either one will vote Democratic for a very long time, but I guess Kansas based on the 2020 results.

[sting in the rafters]

Kansas is seeing that influx of college+ voters from KU/KSU and population growth in the KC burbs, that's where there's room for Ds to expand.

Don't think either votes D in a presidential because of ideological polarization. It is very, very, hard for Ds to win a state which 40%+ of the electorate identifies as conservative unless it is a case like GA where there's enough moderate/conservative black voters whose racial identity still tops ideological identity.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Kansas

[MarkD]

I think Missouri is more likely, because I think the electorate there is more flexible than the electorate in Kansas. I think Trumpism has caused many people to think that the rural areas of MO have permanently shifted to the GOP by huge margins. But I think Trumpism is not going to last for much longer, and when many rural voters have gotten Trump out of their system, they may revert to some of their ancestral moderate Democratic tendencies.

Other than a hunch, what makes you think that? If anything, I think these areas could become even more Republican. Aside from a dead cat bounce leftward or a heavily negative environment against an incumbent Republican like W, I don't see these areas moving leftward anytime soon.

Sorry for the delay in responding. When I say that there are rural voters in MO who could still potentially revert to their ancestral moderate Dem tendencies, I am thinking about the election ten years ago, when Jay Nixon and Chris Koster did pretty well in the rural counties, and even Jason Kander and Clint Zweifel did almost as well. There were still a handful of Dem state reps who were winning reelection to the Missouri House. Ten years ago is not a generation. It's not long ago enough to be dismissed as implausible to ever be restored. So yeah, maybe a "hunch" is half of my thought process.