I think Missouri is more likely, because I think the electorate there is more flexible than the electorate in Kansas. I think Trumpism has caused many people to think that the rural areas of MO have permanently shifted to the GOP by huge margins. But I think Trumpism is not going to last for much longer, and when many rural voters have gotten Trump out of their system, they may revert to some of their ancestral moderate Democratic tendencies.
Other than a hunch, what makes you think that? If anything, I think these areas could become even more Republican. Aside from a dead cat bounce leftward or a heavily negative environment against an incumbent Republican like W, I don't see these areas moving leftward anytime soon.
Sorry for the delay in responding. When I say that there are rural voters in MO who could still potentially revert to their ancestral moderate Dem tendencies, I am thinking about the election ten years ago, when Jay Nixon and Chris Koster did pretty well in the rural counties, and even Jason Kander and Clint Zweifel did almost as well. There were still a handful of Dem state reps who were winning reelection to the Missouri House. Ten years ago is not a generation. It's not long ago enough to be dismissed as implausible to ever be restored. So yeah, maybe a "hunch" is half of my thought process.
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