Analysis of 2006 Predictions and Early Look @ 2008

[Sam Spade]

In the Senate and Governor, my MOE is +/-4% for nailing the race directly, and will be discussed if need be.  House races will be discussed individually. 

I will lock this thread until everything is posted.  Comments are welcome afterwards.

FINAL PREDICTION - SENATE

Safe D
California Feinstein (D) 61, Mountjoy (R) 35, Other 4
Actual: Feinstein (D) 59, Mountjoy (R) 35, Other 6
NAILED

Delaware Carper (D) 64, Ting (R) 34, Other 2
Actual: Carper (D) 70, Ting (R) 29, Other 1
Not within MOE
- Just a tad off on this one.  The one poll here fooled me. 

Florida Bill Nelson (D) 61, Harris (R) 37, Other 2
Actual: Bill Nelson (D) 60, Harris (R) 38, Other 2
NAILED
- Harris did 1% better than I thought she would.  lol

Hawaii Akaka (D) 61, Thielen (R) 37, Other 2
Actual: Akaka (D) 61, Thielen (R) 37, Other 2
NAILED ON THE MONEY

Massachusetts Kennedy (D) 67, Chase (R) 31, Other 2
Actual:Kennedy (D) 69, Chase (R) 31
NAILED

Minnesota* Klobuchar (D) 54, Kennedy (R) 42, Other 4
Actual: Klobuchar (D) 58, Kennedy (R) 38, Other 4
Not within MOE
- A tad off, but not too bad, really.

Nebraska Ben Nelson (D) 56, Ricketts (R) 43, Other 1
Actual: Ben Nelson (D) 64, Ricketts (R) 36, Other 1
Not within MOE
- Ben Nelson really outperformed where I thought he would.

New Mexico Bingaman (D) 64, McCulloch (R) 34, Other 2
Actual: Bingaman (D) 71, McCulloch (R) 29
Not within MOE
- Bingaman really outperformed where I thought he would.

New York Clinton (D) 66, Spencer (R) 31, Other 3
Actual: Clinton (D) 67, Spencer (R) 31, Other 2
NAILED

North Dakota Conrad (D) 69, Grotberg (R) 26, Other 5
Actual: Conrad 69, Grotberg (R) 29, Other 2
NAILED

Ohio (R) Brown (D) 55, DeWine (R) 44, Other 1
Actual: Brown (D) 56, Dewine (R) 44
NAILED
- Didn't know a third-party wasn't running here.  Otherwise, I would have nailed it on the money.

Pennsylvania (R) Casey (D) 55, Santorum (R) 45
Actual: Casey (D) 59, Santorum (R) 41
Not within MOE
- Casey really overperformed in Central PA.

Washington Cantwell (D) 55, McGavick (R) 42, Other 3
Actual: Cantwell (D) 57, McGavick 40, Other 3
NAILED
- Lot of votes left to count here.  It might end up outside my MOE.

West Virginia Byrd (D) 63, Raese (R) 35, Other 2
Actual: Byrd (D) 64, Raese (R) 34, Other 2
NAILED

Wisconsin Kohl (D) 65, Lorge (R) 31, Other 4
Actual: Kohl 67, Lorge 30, Other 3
NAILED

Likely D
Michigan Stabenow (D) 54, Bouchard (R) 45, Other 1
Actual: Stabenow (D) 57, Bouchard (R) 41, Other 2
Not within MOE
- Not too bad, Michigan really outperformed for the Dems this election overall.

Lean D
New Jersey Menendez (D) 52, Kean (R) 46, Other 2
Actual: Menendez (D) 53, Kean (R) 45, Other 2
NAILED
- I know New Jersey.  Better than the NJ Hacks, btw.

Tossup (Lean D)
Virginia Webb (D) 49.9, Allen (R) 48.3, Other 2.6
Actual: Webb (D) 50, Allen (R) 49, Other 1
NAILED

Montana Tester (D) 49.5, Burns (R) 48.4, Other 2.1
Actual: Tester (D) 49, Burns (R) 48, Other 3
NAILED

Maryland* Steele (R) 49.5, Cardin (D) 48.6, Other 1.9
Actual: Cardin 54, Steele 44, Other 2
Not within MOE, WRONG WINNER
- One of my two annoying misses of the evening.  Eh, no one's perfect. 

Rhode Island Chafee (R) 50.1, Whitehouse (D) 48.4, Other 1.4
Actual: Chafee 53, Whitehouse 47
Not within MOE, WRONG WINNER
- At the end in the voting booth, RI voters moved away from Republicans.  You could see it in the Governor's race too.

Toss-up (Pure)
Missouri McCaskill (D) 49.6, Talent (R) 49.3, Other 1.1
Actual: McCaskill (D) 50, Talent (R) 47, Other 3
NAILED

Lean R
Tennessee* Corker (R) 53, Ford (D) 46, Other 1
Actual: Corker (R) 51, Ford (D) 48, Other 1
NAILED
- Just barely...

Arizona Kyl (R) 54, Pederson (D) 45, Other 1
Actual: Kyl (R) 53, Pederson (D) 44, Other 3
NAILED

Likely R
None

Safe R
Indiana Lugar (R) 91, Other 9
Actual: Lugar (R) 87, Other 13
Not within MOE
- I underestimated the L candidate. 

Maine Snowe (R) 72, Bright (D) 25, Other 3
Actual: Snowe (R) 74, Bright (D) 21, Other 5
Not within MOE
- But not really far off either.

Mississippi Lott (R) 63, Fleming (D) 36, Other 1
Actual: Lott (R) 64, Fleming (D) 35, Other 1
NAILED

Nevada Ensign (R) 56, Carter (D) 43, Other 1
Actual: Ensign (R) 55, Carter (D) 41, Other 4
NAILED

Texas Hutchinson (R) 62, Radnofsky (D) 37, Other 1
Actual: Hutchinson (R) 62, Radnofsky (D) 36, Other 2
NAILED
- Underestimated Libertarian again.

Utah Hatch (R) 64, Ashdown (D) 34, Other 2
Actual: Hatch (R) 62, Ashdown (D) 31, Other 7
NAILED
- Underestimated other.  I would have voted other, though.  Remember, it's the margin, not the totals that counts for the game.

Wyoming Thomas (R) 68, Groutage (D) 28, Other 4
Actual: Thomas (R) 70, Groutage (D) 30
NAILED

Safe I
Vermont* Sanders (D/I) 62, Tarrant (R) 35, Other 3
Actual: Sanders (D/I) 65, Tarrant (R) 32, Other 3
Not within MOE
- Just a little off.

Likely I
Connecticut Lieberman (CFL) 49, Lamont (D) 40, Schlesinger (R) 10, Other 1
Actual: Lieberman (CFL) 50, Lamont (D) 40, Schlesinger 10, Other 0
NAILED

Totals: 
NAILED 22 races
Not within MOE 11 races
WRONG WINNER 2 races

I'll take the 2-1 ratio of being within MOE.

Next, the House...

[Sam Spade]

These predictions are sort of incomplete, since 8 House races are still up for grabs.  Here is the list of where the races stand right now:

DEM lead
AZ-05 (CNN has marked this a Democrat win, I think Hayworth not conceding is ridiculous though)
CT-02
GA-12

GOP lead
FL-13 (CNN has marked this a Republican win)
NC-08
NM-01
OH-02
OH-15
WA-08
WY-AL

GOP lean heading to Runoff
TX-23

I suspect the only race that has a shot of switching is CT-02 (except for the Runoff), but for right now it would be best to analyze the races as if they fall the way I have listed above.
So here's what happened:  Democrats won 29 seats from the GOP, gained 1 seat from the Indys (VT-AL) and will have a margin of 232D-203R in the 110th Congress, unless they take TX-23.  Here are the seats that fell.

DEM gains from GOP
AZ-05
AZ-08 (open)
CA-11
CO-07 (open)
CT-02
CT-05
FL-16 (open)
FL-22
IA-01 (open)
IA-02
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
KS-02
KY-03
MN-01
NC-11
NH-01
NH-02
NY-19
NY-20
NY-24 (open)
OH-18 (open)
PA-04
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
WI-08 (open)

Dem gains from Indys
VT-AL
So, let's look at my predictions.  This was the scale:  Likely D +10% or more, Lean D +5%-10%, Tossup/Lean D +0%-5%, Pure Tossup - who knows, Tossup/Lean R +0%-+5%, Lean R +5%-+10%, Likely R +10% or more.

FINAL PREDICTIONS - HOUSE
* indicates change of party (prediction)
# indicates correct call
! indicates missed call

GOP Seats
Likely D
#1. AZ-08* (open) - obviously
#2. CO-07* (open) - just as obvious

Lean D
#3. PA-10* - The GOP pumped about $150,000 in advertising here the last day, so I suspected it was moving closer.
#4. IN-08* - Should have been Likely D
#5. IA-01* (open) - Likewise
#6. PA-07* - Likewise, likewise.
#7. OH-18* (open) - Likewise, likewise, likewise.
!8. OH-15* - The surprise of the evening to me for the Republicans
#9. NY-24* (open) - Perfect.
#10. IN-02* - Good call as well.
#11. TX-22* (open) - Ended up about where I thought it would.

Toss-up (Lean D)
!12. FL-16 (open) - A good call also.
!13. NM-01* - Wilson surprises again.
#14. NC-11* - Should have been in Lean D, hell Likely D
#15. CT-05* - Likewise.
#16. NH-02* - Should have been in Lean D, but the guess was pretty accurate.
!17. PA-06* - Another Republican surprise.
!18. FL-13 (open)* - Likewise.
!19. CT-04* - Likewise, likewise.

Toss-up (Pure)
#20. NY-20* - I suspect the wife-beating release probably put Sweeney under for good.
!21. OH-01* - Chabot's strength (and Ohio Republican CDs in general) was surprising.
!22. FL-22 - The Rumsfeld call to Shaw sounds funny.
!23. CT-02 - So very close this one is.  The one that still might switch, imo.
#24. AZ-05* - Got this one down.
#25. KY-03* - Same here.
!26. IN-09 - Indiana was really against Republicans Tuesday.  Expect Sodrel to run again in 2008.
#27. IL-06 (open) - Nailed
!28. WI-08 (open) - Kagen was a very strong candidate.

Toss-up (Lean R)
#29. VA-02 - Got this one correct.  A tough call.
!30. PA-08 - Kinda surprised about this one.
#31. NY-26 - The snowstorm saved Reynolds.
!32. NY-25* - If the Dems couldn't get Walsh this year, they won't get him in 2008, imo.
#33. ID-01 (open) - Nailed this one
#34. CA-11* - Same here.
#35. OH-02 - Some really good calls here in this list.
#36. WY-AL - Cubin will probably survive. 

Lean R
#37. NY-29 - Massa was not the greatest candidate and let this one slip away.  This is the most GOP CD in NY.
#38. CO-04 - Musgrave survives. 
#39. KY-04 - Davis won by a larger margin than most predicted.  He's probably here for a long while into the future.
#40. WA-08 - Reichert will probably survive.  Burner was a terrible candidate.
!41. KS-02 - Should have been higher.
#42. OH-12 - The Ohio GOP Congressional candidates ran surprisingly strong on Tuesday, on the whole
!43. PA-04 - Hart ran a bad campaign.  She's probably back in 2008, though.
!44. MN-01 - Another marginal district that fell during the wave.
#45. MN-06 (open) - Bachmann ran as strong as Kennedy did in 2004.  In fact, Bachmann really ran a very strong campaign and will be here for quite a while (to the hatred of BRTD)
#46. KY-02 - Closer, but not close enough.
#47. NE-03 (open) - This is probably as close as the Democrats get here for the next 30 years.
#48. AZ-01 - Renzi always survives.
!49. NY-19 - This was a surprise.
#50. IL-10 - Kirk survives a fairly close one.
!51. IA-02 - Another surprise, but once again, this was a marginal seat that was always vulnerable in a wave.
#52. NV-03 - Porter barely survives against the Mormon.
#53. NC-08 - Hayes was really lucky if he survives the recount.
#54. NY-03 - King is probably here until he retires, imho.
#55. NV-02 (open) - This is the Republican CD in NV, probably in no danger for the future.
#56. VA-10 - Close, but not close enough.
#57. WA-05 - Less close than expected.
#58. CA-04 - Should have been in Toss-up, but still the correct call.
#59. CO-05 (open) - Lamborn really pulled away at the end.

Likely R
#60. TX-23 - Heading to runoff, Bonilla will be favored.
#61. NJ-07 - Stender got close, but not close enough.
#62. IN-03 - This is probably the closest contest Souder will even have.
#63. MI-07 (open) - Could have been a Dem pickup, but Renier was/is nuts.
!64. NH-01 - Biggest surprise of the evening.
#65. FL-09 (open) - Never got traction against the younger Bilirakis
#66. NE-01 - Fortenberry looks safe now going into 2008.  Improved his numbers.
#67. FL-08 - Keller in a marginal seat, was my first real suspect of a good national wave going.
#68. MI-08 - Rogers survived by a fair margin.
#69. IL-11 - So did Keller.
#70. NY-13 - Fossella did fairly well in a bad year.  His opponent was pretty terrible, though.
#71. MI-09 - Same as the other three Michigan seats, close but no cigar.
#72. NJ-05 - Nothing to say here.
#73. CA-50 - Bilbray has this seat for good, now.  He is a very good fit, frankly.
#74. WV-02 - Nothing important to say here.
#75. IA-04 - Nothing really to say here either.

Dem Seats
Toss-up
#1. IL-08 - Bean ran a strong race.  She's still going to be a top target in 2008, though.
#2. GA-08 - Marshall held on.
#3. GA-12* - The closest race for the GOP.

Lean D
#4. VT-AL - Rainville should run for office again.  She ran a strong campaign, imho and performed well in a bad year for the GOP.
#5. IA-03 - Once again, Boswell underperforms.  He lost votes from his numbers in 2006, about the only competitive Dem seat that did so, I think.  Will be high on the GOP list in 2008.
#6. IN-07 - Carson looked weak, but survived again.
#7. OR-05 - Hooley got about the same % as 2004; I would expect the GOP to target her again in 2008.
#8. WV-AL - Not really much of a change.  Should have been in Likely D
#9. TX-17 - The sign of how precarious of a seat Edwards is in is the fact he can only get 58% in a very strong Democratic year (in Texas as well)

Likely D
#10. IL-17 (open)- Not close.
#11. LA-03 - Not close.
#12. CO-03 - Repeat and rinse.
#13. NC-13 - Not close.
#14. SC-05 - Not close.
#15. KS-03 - Really not close.
#16. LA-02 - Let's just hope Jefferson doesn't pull a Ray Nagin.

Totals:  416 seats right out of 435 seats.  Not too bad, considering some of the surprises.

[Sam Spade]

The third post is my preliminary Senate analysis for 2008.  A couple of notes:

If I think the seat is Safe if the incumbent runs and in contention if the incumbent doesn't run, you'll see it in Likely.  Otherwise, you'll probably see me comment most about the contenders and the likelihood of Senate retirements.

My predictions will be based upon a generic 50-50 contest with outlines similar to 2004 (but not the same).  No giant shifts or switches.  You may see me take trends into account from either 2004 or 2006.  The coalitions the Presidential candidates create will change the prediction accordingly, but we won't know that yet.

Safe D
Delaware - If Biden runs, no contest, and I suspect he will (even with running for Prez).  If he doesn't, I don't know who runs for either side.  Minner (D) isn't interested, neither is Castle (D).  I guess it could be interesting then, but I doubt it because of Delaware's lean.
Illinois - Durbin is young and will run again.  No contest.
Massachusetts - John Kerry may retire, he may not, but Republicans still have little to no chance.
Rhode Island - Reed is safe.  Even if he doesn't run, it's safe.

Likely D
Arkansas - Pryor is probably safe and will run again, but if he got a good challenger, Arkansas is not "so" Democratic that it would be in safe.
Michigan - If Levin runs again, it's safe.  If he doesn't, total tossup.  The GOP will have a great candidate in Candace Miller and the Dems will have very good candidates also.
Montana - I suspect if Baucus runs again, no one major will challenge him as usual (like Rehberg).  If he doesn't, total tossup.
West Virginia - If Rockefeller runs, safe.  If not, probably lean D, but competitive (because of Prez year and WV trends).  Expect Shelley Moore Capito for the GOP and either Manchin or Rahall for the Dems.

Lean D
Iowa - Harkin never wins by very much anyway and is getting old.  If he retires, can you say bloodbath.
New Jersey - I really can't see Lautenberg running again, and is very unpopular, but Democrats always have the advantage in NJ, regardless.
South Dakota - Johnson is popular, but there are big candidates out there in a Prez year.  Give him the early advantage though.

Tossup
Colorado (R) - Obvious placement.
Louisiana (D) - Obvious placement.

Lean R
Minnesota - Coleman's approval ratings are Ok, not great but I can't think of a really good opponent (Hatch, Al Franken, no).  Still, Minnesota in a Prez year, you know, puts it here.
New Hampshire - Sununu has pretty good popularity ratings, but New Hampshire is trending left.  Lean R is a good place for this, but it could well be tossup.  The biggest issue is if Lynch doesn't challenge, I really don't know who does.
Oregon - Smith's approval ratings are pretty good.  If he gets a good opponent, this one will probably be competitive.  If not, no.
Virginia - I suspect Warner retires.  If he doesn't, this one will be pretty safe.  If he does, put this in toss-up.  A number of candidates could run here.  No need to list all of them.

Likely R
Kansas - If Roberts runs, it's safe.  If not, expect a battle between Jerry Moran and Kathleen Sebelius.
Kentucky - If McConnell runs, it's safe.  If not, expect a battle where the Republican will probably be favored.
Maine - Collins is running and will be favored heavily, even if Tom Allen runs.
Mississippi - Cochran is reaching 70.  If he runs, safe.  If not, expect a Mike Moore/Gene Taylor vs. Chip Pickering battle where Pickering will be the favorite (Prez year).
New Mexico - If Domenici runs, it's safe.  If not, expect a bloodbath.
North Carolina - Only competitive if Liddy Dole gets Mike Easley as an opponent.  Most likely not even then, her approval rating are good.
Oklahoma - At 74, Inhofe may well retire.  Brad Henry would be a strong candidate, but the Republicans will likely run a good candidate also.  Prez year factor would give the advantage to the GOP.
Texas - Cornyn's approval ratings aren't great.  But the Texas Democratic party is in even worse shape.  Only here in case the white knight comes charging in.

Safe R
Alabama - I hear Artur Davis might run.  Jeff Sessions is definitely running.  I know who's winning that contest.
Alaska - Ted Stevens is running and he'll win. 
Georgia - In the Georgia of 2008, Chambliss will be safe.
Idaho - Rumors are Craig may retire, though he's young.  The problem is, if Democrats couldn't win in Idaho with the wind at their back this year, how will they win in the future.
Nebraska - Hagel may retire or run for Prez (stupid).  But all the major candidates to replace him are Republicans.
South Carolina - SC elects its Senators for life.  Next.
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander will run and he's safe.
Wyoming - I doubt Freundethal wastes time against Enzi, who will run again.  But I've been wrong before.

[Sam Spade]

This post is for House 2008 commentary. 

Here's what you're likely to see:  I will talk about the CD's lost in 2006 and comment as to whether I think they're safe or not or in-between.  In addition, I will comment on CDs that I think could be competitive under the right conditions (retirement, etc.) and the chances I see of that happening.

Once again, I am taking into account the 50-50 imaginary world I talked about for Prez 2008.  I will go state-by-state and comment on the races that I think could be interesting.  Here we go:

Alabama
AL-05: Only if Bud Cramer retires, and I doubt he will.

Alaska
None.

Arizona
AZ-01: Maybe Renzi will be indicted and he will be gone.  Until that happens, he's in his usual precarious position.  Lean R.
AZ-05: I suspect Mitchell should be able to hold onto this CD, unless he does something leftist-kooky or gets a really good opponent. Lean D
AZ-08: Giffords is a good fit for the RINO-ish CD.  I can only see her losing to another RINO-type R.  Likely D

Arkansas
The Democratic party is strong in Arkansas and I doubt AR-01, AR-02 or AR-04 are competitive, even considering the 2004 GOP numbers, unless someone retired (which I don't see happening).  The only one I would consider putting on the list w/o retirement is Snyder in AR-02, simply because he's more liberal than the other two and has never had the great margins of victory the other two enjoy.

California
CA-04: Doolittle had Abramoff issues, but I suspect this goes away by 2008 and he wins fairly easily again in a 60-40 GOP CD.
CA-11: Pombo was an anachronism in this CD, which is trending left like the whole Bay Area.  I suspect McNerney is too far left for this CD, but unless the GOP gets a good moderate Republican to run, I doubt he loses.  Lean D
CA-24: Gallegy was supposed to retire, then didn't.  If he does the time around, the seat would be competitive, but Lean R definitely.
CA-50: Bilbray is a perfect fit for this CD.  Don't expect it to be close until he goes.

Colorado
CO-03: Salazar got 61% in 2006, but this is a very marginal seat and should be watched in 2008, especially if a good opponent appears.
CO-04: Musgrave's margins are always way too close for a Republican here.  But I doubt she gets as bad of a scare as she did this year.  Lean R
CO-05: Will not be close in 2008.
CO-07: I suspect this marginally Dem district will stay in Democrat's hands for the time to come.  Likely D, unless a good GOP opponent appears.

Connecticut
CT-02: If Simmons loses by only 100 votes, I suspect he runs again.  If so, it will be a race.  Remember, he knocked off the incumbent Dem congressman back in 2000, which was a terrible year for Republicans in CT all told.
CT-04: This CD will always be a race. 
CT-05: I doubt Nancy Johnson makes a comeback.  If not, I really don't know who can give Murphy a challenge, though this CD is very marginal.  Keep a watch, but Lean D for now.

Delaware
DE-AL: Mike Castle has had two strokes, is 69, and may well choose to retire.  If so, this seat becomes lean D, though I have no idea who runs for it.

Florida
FL-08: A marginal CD and Keller only won by 5% this year.  He is young, though, and has historically done better than this, so I doubt he is in any trouble, barring retirement.
FL-09: Son Bilirakis took over for father Bilirakis.  Son will hold the seat quite long into the future.
FL-13: I was quite surprised Buchanan won this race.  The CD is Republican (55-45), but not overly so.  Still, when you've got the money he does, I would have to consider him a strong favorite in the future.  Lean R, at least.
FL-16: Expect Republicans to battle here in 2008, probably with Negron again.  Marginal CD with a slight Republican lean.
FL-22: Already a marginal Dem seat, I don't see this one changing unless Shaw runs again.  I doubt he does.
There are a couple of other Florida seats that could be interesting with retirements.   However, the respective Congressmen there are young and there's no statewide races in Florida in 2008, so I doubt there are any changes.

Georgia
GA-02: If Sanford left, this could be in trouble.  But he won't.
GA-08:  Was competitive this election, though if Mac Collins doesn't run, maybe less so.  Still a problematic CD for Dems.  The Dems are in real bad shape in Georgia right now, anyway.
GA-12:  Same here, but only if Burns runs again.  This is a marginal Dem CD and will be more favorable in Prez years.

Hawaii
None, unless Linda Lingle gets involved in something.

Idaho
ID-01:  If Sali (a nutcase) could get 50% in Idaho in a year like this, I suspect he's probably stronger for 2008 than we might think.  Likely R.

Illinois
IL-06: Duckworth was just a terrible candidate.  And Roskam was a pretty good one.  Even though this CD is slowly trending left, I suspect Roskam is a pretty good fit here and will be tough to knock off in the future.  Lean R.
IL-08: This CD is not moving in the same direction as IL-06 and Bean will face tough opponents in the future.  She did perform slightly better this election, all told, but expect tough races in the future.
IL-10: Kirk survived a somewhat tough race this election.  I suspect that this will probably be as bad as it gets for a while, because he is also a very good fit for this CD.  Likely R.
IL-11: Weller ran strong in this marginal CD again this year and I see no reason for change in the future.  Likely R.
IL-14: Hastert will retire in 2008.  His CD leans R, about 55-45 GOP last time I checked.  Probably Lean R, depending on opponent.
IL-17: Way behind on the radar this election, Democrats elected a new Rep. here in a very marginal CD that is trending to the right.  I doubt anything will happen here in 2008, but it is a little note for this year.

Indiana
IN-02: I would not be surprised to see Chocola try and make a comeback.  Donnelly would be favored, but this would be another contest.  If no Chocola, probably no race.  Lean D
IN-03: Souder had a race this election.  I don't see that happening again.
IN-07: Marginal CD.  Carson is already pretty old and will probably be retiring one of these next elections.  If so, this will be a contested CD.
IN-08: I suspect Ellsworth is here for a long time.  He is just the kind of conservative Democrat this part of Indiana loves.
IN-09: If Sodrel runs again, this will be another race.  I would give Hill the advantage, of course, but still close. Lean D

Iowa
IA-01: I suspect Republicans will find it hard to retake this seat.  Of course, maybe Nussle will re-run again here, but his bad 2006 Gov. performance in the CD maybe showed his support was only skin-deep.  Likely D
IA-02: Lost for Republicans for good.
IA-03: Boswell is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2008.  A real classic underperformer.  This seat will be highly targeted.  Frankly, he should probably retire.
IA-04: Latham is in a marginal CD, but outperformed even in this bad year for the GOP.  Probably safe in the future, unless he should retire.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think your Senate predictions sound good.  Without being overly partisan I would say that the 2008 races should favour the Democrats.  I'm also willing to admit that the GOP could gain a few House seats while the Democrats cement their hold on the Senate. 

[Sam Spade]

I think your Senate predictions sound good.  Without being overly partisan I would say that the 2008 races should favour the Democrats.  I'm also willing to admit that the GOP could gain a few House seats while the Democrats cement their hold on the Senate. 

Perhaps.  A lot will depend on the quality of the Prez candidates, as it usually does in Prez election years.

[WMS]

Rhode Island Chafee (R) 50.1, Whitehouse (D) 48.4, Other 1.4
Actual: Chafee 53, Whitehouse 47
Not within MOE, WRONG WINNER
- At the end in the voting booth, RI voters moved away from Republicans.  You could see it in the Governor's race too.

*clears throat*

[Sam Spade]

Rhode Island Chafee (R) 50.1, Whitehouse (D) 48.4, Other 1.4
Actual: Chafee 53, Whitehouse 47
Not within MOE, WRONG WINNER
- At the end in the voting booth, RI voters moved away from Republicans.  You could see it in the Governor's race too.

*clears throat*

I guess the "clears throat" thing means you predicted this.

Most of the time, I really do go by the polls which indicated a fairly clear, roughly 8-point Carcieri lead and a Chafee-Whitehouse tie.

Of course, I also said that I do not trust RI polling, so there. 

[Mike in Maryland]

Generally good predictions, and I was surprised by the near-exactness of some of the predicted numbers vs. the actual results.  Looks almost like you had a mostly successful predictive formula working here.

Though I must get in my mandatory Maryland licks for the out-on-a-limb prediction of a Steele victory; even before the election, I didn't think he was closing THAT well; no poll ever showed him above the mid-40s and he was better known than Cardin, which made me think that Cardin would get more of the undecideds.  I think the media puffed up Steele's chances somewhat, and in the end he ran behind my prediction (I thought Cardin would win by about 4, and it turned out to be somewhere around 10.)

[Sam Spade]

Generally good predictions, and I was surprised by the near-exactness of some of the predicted numbers vs. the actual results.  Looks almost like you had a mostly successful predictive formula working here.

Though I must get in my mandatory Maryland licks for the out-on-a-limb prediction of a Steele victory (even before the election, I didn't think he was closing THAT well).  I think the media really puffed up his chances, and in the end he ran behind my prediction (I thought Cardin would win by about 4, and it turned out to be somewhere around 10.)

That's quite ok.  I'm used to taking the punishment, considering that I usually get about 2-3 races each year way off.  This year, unlike 2004, unfortunately, it was the big ones.

RI made a concerted turn to the Dems that the polls did not establish.  That I can pretty much establish.  I don't think the same turn existed in Maryland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Expect Shelley Moore Capito for the GOP

If Manchin runs for Senate I wouldn't be that suprised if she runs for Governer.

[Sam Spade]

I nailed the Hawaii Senate race right on the money and in the Hawaii Governor race, I was only off on Iwase's performance as 36% instead of 35%, otherwise I would have nailed both races exactly.

I found this kind of funny, because 1) I know nothing about Hawaii politics; 2) My Hawaii prediction in 2004 was so off it was hilarious (worse than Maryland this cycle).

Just a note.

[WMS]

Rhode Island Chafee (R) 50.1, Whitehouse (D) 48.4, Other 1.4
Actual: Chafee 53, Whitehouse 47
Not within MOE, WRONG WINNER
- At the end in the voting booth, RI voters moved away from Republicans.  You could see it in the Governor's race too.

*clears throat*

I guess the "clears throat" thing means you predicted this.

Most of the time, I really do go by the polls which indicated a fairly clear, roughly 8-point Carcieri lead and a Chafee-Whitehouse tie.

Of course, I also said that I do not trust RI polling, so there. 

Actually, I meant that you need to swap Chafee and Whitehouse.

[Sam Spade]

I have done Alaska-Connecticut in the house races.  More to come when I get more time.

[MAS117]

Unforunetly Sam, it looks like Frank Lautenberg will be running again in 2008. You could see a possible suitation like Case v. Akaka with Andrews v. Lautenberg, but I highly doubt it.

[Sam Spade]

Done Delaware to Iowa.

[MAS117]

Sam, I have heard that if Biden gives up his seat to run for President, or Mike Castle decides to retire, Joe Biden's son, Beau Biden, who just won the race for Delaware Attorney General is a prime candidate to succeed either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's my Minnesota House analysis, though I imagine Sam might have different views:

MN-01: It'll be interesting to see how Walz votes. But he's a smart guy and great campaigner and no doubt Pelosi will make sure he can bring home the agricultural bacon. As far as GOP candidates go, my hunch is State Sen. Julie Rosen, but that's just a gut feeling, don't quote me on it. Lean D
MN-02: Theoretically Kline can be beaten, but only with a really good candidate that we don't have (what a joke Colleen Rowley turned out to be) Actually after his performance in this election I'll admit he probably owns this until the next redistricting.
MN-03: If Ramstad decides it's no fun being in the minority and retires this is going to be a bloodbath. But as long as he runs, he wins.
MN-04: If McCollum runs for Senate, interesting primary, but that's it.
MN-05: It'll be interesting to see if Ellison goes down in the primary (and I will be voting against him). But the primary's all that matters.
MN-06: Hopefully Bachmann will make a Jean Schmidt of herself on the floor and the DFL gets a stronger candidate like Tinkelberg. But I'll admit, that probably won't happen, this is just an evil suburban district. I'm just hoping she pulls a Katherine Harris against Klobuchar in 2012. Likely R
MN-07: As the new chairman of the Ag Committee, Peterson will run again. This won't be a race.
MN-08: Oberstar might retire, though I doubt he will right after taking the majority. In that case, no race. If he does, the primary will be interesting, but while the GOP may make a foolish run for this seat, their chances of taking it are slim to none, and no, Rod Grams is not going to do it.

[Moooooo]

lol, the only one doing the nailing in MD was O'Malley and Cardin.  You got nailed Sam... nailed.  ahahaha


j/k of course.

[Sam Spade]

lol, the only one doing the nailing in MD was O'Malley and Cardin.  You got nailed Sam... nailed.  ahahaha


j/k of course.

It's kinda sad that the only race I blew was Maryland.  RI was totally unpredictable, like I warned earlier, but I should've done better with Maryland.