Unpopular Opinion: Republicans should be happy about growth patterns in Arizona

[ProgressiveModerate]

Many of the Native Communities are shrinking, Tucson's growth is nothing impressive, and downtown Pheonix has been slowing down.

Furthermore, while the state has been getting more diverse, it's a lot slower than a lot of other states.

Most of the growth has been out of Pheonix's Republican suburbs and exurbs. These suburbs are still very white and still give Republicans very solid margins. In many areas, even though the raw margin has shifted left, Republicans have net more votes because of the overall increase in voters.

I'm sort of of the belief that McCain and Romney being uniquely strong fits for the state helped to give this impression AZ is shifting D faster than it really is. Biden still only barely won despite Trump pretty much doing everything wrong when it came to his AZ campaign, and Rs performance in 2018 was respectable considering.

Agree of disagree?

[Vice President Christian Man]

Many of the Native Communities are shrinking, Tucson's growth is nothing impressive, and downtown Pheonix has been slowing down.

Furthermore, while the state has been getting more diverse, it's a lot slower than a lot of other states.

Most of the growth has been out of Pheonix's Republican suburbs and exurbs. These suburbs are still very white and still give Republicans very solid margins. In many areas, even though the raw margin has shifted left, Republicans have net more votes because of the overall increase in voters.

I'm sort of of the belief that McCain and Romney being uniquely strong fits for the state helped to give this impression AZ is shifting D faster than it really is. Biden still only barely won despite Trump pretty much doing everything wrong when it came to his AZ campaign, and Rs performance in 2018 was respectable considering.

Agree of disagree?

I can't speak for most of the GOP, but the GOP needs to do infinitely better at winning over non-white voters, including native Americans. The blatant rise of nativism, authoritarianism, Islamophobia & Anti-Semitism (mainly by Qanoners) by some on the right has threatened to reverse any gains made. Had the GOP been more proactive in discussing race relations and way to improve it pragmatically, the GOP wouldn't have to worry about losing the Sunbelt. I think Trump's platinum plan is a step in the right direction, but more should be done.

[It’s so Joever]

Many of the Native Communities are shrinking, Tucson's growth is nothing impressive, and downtown Pheonix has been slowing down.

Furthermore, while the state has been getting more diverse, it's a lot slower than a lot of other states.

Most of the growth has been out of Pheonix's Republican suburbs and exurbs. These suburbs are still very white and still give Republicans very solid margins. In many areas, even though the raw margin has shifted left, Republicans have net more votes because of the overall increase in voters.

I'm sort of of the belief that McCain and Romney being uniquely strong fits for the state helped to give this impression AZ is shifting D faster than it really is. Biden still only barely won despite Trump pretty much doing everything wrong when it came to his AZ campaign, and Rs performance in 2018 was respectable considering.

Agree of disagree?

I can't speak for most of the GOP, but the GOP needs to do infinitely better at winning over non-white voters, including native Americans. The blatant rise of nativism, authoritarianism, Islamophobia & Anti-Semitism (mainly by Qanoners) by some on the right has threatened to reverse any gains made. Had the GOP been more proactive in discussing race relations and way to improve it pragmatically, the GOP wouldn't have to worry about losing the Sunbelt. I think Trump's platinum plan is a step in the right direction, but more should be done.

I would disagree to be honest.
I think the Republicans can have their cake and eat it too. Even with the “rhetoric” in the Trump years, Latinos swung right, Asians swung right, and Blacks swung right. Some of it was more a reversion to a mean since Obama and Hillary both overperformed, but I do think some was genuine.
Especially with Black Americans, I’m pretty sure the younger gen is less Dem leaning than the old.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I can't speak for most of the GOP, but the GOP needs to do infinitely better at winning over non-white voters, including native Americans. The blatant rise of nativism, authoritarianism, Islamophobia & Anti-Semitism (mainly by Qanoners) by some on the right has threatened to reverse any gains made. Had the GOP been more proactive in discussing race relations and way to improve it pragmatically, the GOP wouldn't have to worry about losing the Sunbelt. I think Trump's platinum plan is a step in the right direction, but more should be done.

I would disagree to be honest.
I think the Republicans can have their cake and eat it too. Even with the “rhetoric” in the Trump years, Latinos swung right, Asians swung right, and Blacks swung right. Some of it was more a reversion to a mean since Obama and Hillary both overperformed, but I do think some was genuine.
Especially with Black Americans, I’m pretty sure the younger gen is less Dem leaning than the old.

Some of the racial "depolarization" with every nonwhite group was from increased turnout and previous nonvoters being less one-sidedly D as previous voters. But yeah, there's no way ADOS black voters won't trend R, it's just a question of how fast and by how much.

[DaleCooper]

Many of the Native Communities are shrinking, Tucson's growth is nothing impressive, and downtown Pheonix has been slowing down.

Furthermore, while the state has been getting more diverse, it's a lot slower than a lot of other states.

Most of the growth has been out of Pheonix's Republican suburbs and exurbs. These suburbs are still very white and still give Republicans very solid margins. In many areas, even though the raw margin has shifted left, Republicans have net more votes because of the overall increase in voters.

I'm sort of of the belief that McCain and Romney being uniquely strong fits for the state helped to give this impression AZ is shifting D faster than it really is. Biden still only barely won despite Trump pretty much doing everything wrong when it came to his AZ campaign, and Rs performance in 2018 was respectable considering.

Agree of disagree?

I can't speak for most of the GOP, but the GOP needs to do infinitely better at winning over non-white voters, including native Americans. The blatant rise of nativism, authoritarianism, Islamophobia & Anti-Semitism (mainly by Qanoners) by some on the right has threatened to reverse any gains made. Had the GOP been more proactive in discussing race relations and way to improve it pragmatically, the GOP wouldn't have to worry about losing the Sunbelt. I think Trump's platinum plan is a step in the right direction, but more should be done.

I would disagree to be honest.
I think the Republicans can have their cake and eat it too. Even with the “rhetoric” in the Trump years, Latinos swung right, Asians swung right, and Blacks swung right. Some of it was more a reversion to a mean since Obama and Hillary both overperformed, but I do think some was genuine.
Especially with Black Americans, I’m pretty sure the younger gen is less Dem leaning than the old.

Republicans can have their cake and eat it too if their culture war rhetoric happens to fall on the winning side of issues that minorities care about. In 2020, the left was too stupid to understand that minorities tend to want safe communities more than they want white people to come and burn down local businesses and public monuments. They also wanted to be allowed to work for a living during COVID. But in 2024, the right seems to be gearing up for a "Real America" campaign, where they ignore all the easy issues staring them in the face like inflation and cost of living in favor campaigning on how mean Democrats were to Donald Trump. I'm not saying that Republicans are going to lose all their gains or anything like that, but if the 2024 Republican platform is a bunch gobbledegook about banning books and mourning the death of some degenerate January 6th rioter, then yes absolutely their working class minority gains are in danger.

[UncleSam]

Given AZ was a safe state for many years and is now a swing state, I would say this take it objectively wrong. Hell, Trump did like 4 points worse in AZ in 2020 despite only declining in the PV by 2.

Plus, his 2016 performance was an under-performance for an R, while his 2020 performance was kind of an over performance.

Bottom line is AZ is shifting left, though I agree it is very far from gone and is a candidate to swing by towards the GOP if they continue to make gains with Hispanic voters. I could see it becoming a +4-6 DeSantis state vs Harris in 2024, for example.

[Cyrusman]

One more point to add and honestly I’d say this is the big one

A lot of the People from California moving there are republicans or right leaning independents  who want to get the hell out of CA and can go right next door to a GOP friendly state. These are the people flocking to the Phoenix suburbs. This definitely caught steam after covid and AZ was pretty much open. I went to a bar in Arizona in December 2020 when covid was out of control. The covid lockdowns and culture wars have pushed a lot of right leaning people out of California and Arizona has been a prime target to move to.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

One more point to add and honestly I’d say this is the big one

A lot of the People from California moving there are republicans or right leaning independents  who want to get the hell out of CA and can go right next door to a GOP friendly state. These are the people flocking to the Phoenix suburbs. This definitely caught steam after covid and AZ was pretty much open. I went to a bar in Arizona in December 2020 when covid was out of control. The covid lockdowns and culture wars have pushed a lot of right leaning people out of California and Arizona has been a prime target to move to.

Honestly the cost of living in CA might be the single biggest driver of people moving to AZ.

[Badger]

I disagree. Maricopa County going democratic in the last presidential election was a true watershed. It's been trending that way for some time, and even Clinton didn't carry it while winning the state in 96.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One more point to add and honestly I’d say this is the big one

A lot of the People from California moving there are republicans or right leaning independents  who want to get the hell out of CA and can go right next door to a GOP friendly state. These are the people flocking to the Phoenix suburbs. This definitely caught steam after covid and AZ was pretty much open. I went to a bar in Arizona in December 2020 when covid was out of control. The covid lockdowns and culture wars have pushed a lot of right leaning people out of California and Arizona has been a prime target to move to.

Honestly the cost of living in CA might be the single biggest driver of people moving to AZ.

While I agree with the idea that people move to Arizona from Cali due to cost, idk if these people outright lean R when Cali is a D + 30 state. They're probably redder than the California electorate as a whole but if voters are really fleeing California at the pace claimed by many here, then why are R parts of Cali some of the fastest growing and hyper-blue LA shrinking?

[Unelectable Bystander]

One more point to add and honestly I’d say this is the big one

A lot of the People from California moving there are republicans or right leaning independents  who want to get the hell out of CA and can go right next door to a GOP friendly state. These are the people flocking to the Phoenix suburbs. This definitely caught steam after covid and AZ was pretty much open. I went to a bar in Arizona in December 2020 when covid was out of control. The covid lockdowns and culture wars have pushed a lot of right leaning people out of California and Arizona has been a prime target to move to.

Honestly the cost of living in CA might be the single biggest driver of people moving to AZ.

While I agree with the idea that people move to Arizona from Cali due to cost, idk if these people outright lean R when Cali is a D + 30 state. They're probably redder than the California electorate as a whole but if voters are really fleeing California at the pace claimed by many here, then why are R parts of Cali some of the fastest growing and hyper-blue LA shrinking?

The last sentence applies to most cities I would say. Everything else I agree with though, there’s certainly a lot of California conservatives going to Phoenix but likely less than the number generic Californians moving there. All in all, sadly I can’t say I agree with the premise of this. I think it’s competitive for now, and obviously the Maricopa suburbs are different than any other city, I just don’t see republicans doing well long term in a state dominated by one huge educated metro. It feels like the opposite of Iowa

[Person Man]

One more point to add and honestly I’d say this is the big one

A lot of the People from California moving there are republicans or right leaning independents  who want to get the hell out of CA and can go right next door to a GOP friendly state. These are the people flocking to the Phoenix suburbs. This definitely caught steam after covid and AZ was pretty much open. I went to a bar in Arizona in December 2020 when covid was out of control. The covid lockdowns and culture wars have pushed a lot of right leaning people out of California and Arizona has been a prime target to move to.

Honestly the cost of living in CA might be the single biggest driver of people moving to AZ.

While I agree with the idea that people move to Arizona from Cali due to cost, idk if these people outright lean R when Cali is a D + 30 state. They're probably redder than the California electorate as a whole but if voters are really fleeing California at the pace claimed by many here, then why are R parts of Cali some of the fastest growing and hyper-blue LA shrinking?

The last sentence applies to most cities I would say. Everything else I agree with though, there’s certainly a lot of California conservatives going to Phoenix but likely less than the number generic Californians moving there. All in all, sadly I can’t say I agree with the premise of this. I think it’s competitive for now, and obviously the Maricopa suburbs are different than any other city, I just don’t see republicans doing well long term in a state dominated by one huge educated metro. It feels like the opposite of Iowa

By Iowa, you mean a state that voted more like Minnesota or Wisconsin despite being more like Nebraska and Missouri and all of the sudden started voting more like Nebraska and Missouri?

So Arizona is a state that has been voting more like Montana and Texas even though it was more like Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada and now is starting to vote like Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

Probably for the same reason, too. The largest or fastest growing demographic is regressing towards the national mean as their importance is waning in the party they are leaving.

In Iowa's case, the plight of working stiffs and class and industrial issues were being sidelined by the Democrats' new emphasis on Civil Rights  and in Arizona, the plight of the small-time banker or lawyer that lived in Glendale or Scottsdale was being sidelined by the Republican's new emphasis on Nationalism.

[Хahar 🤔]

One more point to add and honestly I’d say this is the big one

A lot of the People from California moving there are republicans or right leaning independents  who want to get the hell out of CA and can go right next door to a GOP friendly state. These are the people flocking to the Phoenix suburbs. This definitely caught steam after covid and AZ was pretty much open. I went to a bar in Arizona in December 2020 when covid was out of control. The covid lockdowns and culture wars have pushed a lot of right leaning people out of California and Arizona has been a prime target to move to.

Honestly the cost of living in CA might be the single biggest driver of people moving to AZ.

While I agree with the idea that people move to Arizona from Cali due to cost, idk if these people outright lean R when Cali is a D + 30 state. They're probably redder than the California electorate as a whole but if voters are really fleeing California at the pace claimed by many here, then why are R parts of Cali some of the fastest growing and hyper-blue LA shrinking?

I'm reminded of the old Will Rogers line that Oklahomans moving to California raised the average intelligence of both states. It is very much possible for migration from California to Arizona to make both states more Democratic. As you point out, even if emigrants from California are more Republican than the average Californian, the state as a whole is so Democratic that it is hard to imagine the emigrant population as a whole being more Republican than Democratic unless the migration is specifically ideologically motivated. That may be true of Californians moving to Kootenai County, Idaho; it is not true of Californians moving to Arizona.

[freepcrusher]

On paper the republican party should be sh-tting a brick about the state since Maricopa, Pima and Coconino are like 85% of the state and all voted for Biden by varying degrees. What they have going for them is that the other 15% of the state has the possibility to outvote the state. Like Mohave and Yavapai are there own version of Florida.

[Badger]

On paper the republican party should be sh-tting a brick about the state since Maricopa, Pima and Coconino are like 85% of the state and all voted for Biden by varying degrees. What they have going for them is that the other 15% of the state has the possibility to outvote the state. Like Mohave and Yavapai are there own version of Florida.

More like their own version of Idaho, but point taken.

[TDAS04]

Arizona is trending D, maybe not as quckly as previously expected.